Longshot of the Day
FRIDAY, JULY 26
Track: Saratoga
Race 8: $62K optional claimer going 5 ½ furlongs on turf for 3+
Post Time: 5:10 PM ET
Horse: #10 Let It Ride (8/1 morning line). Use as a win bet at 6/1or higher.
Rest assured, I am not selecting a horse because of his name, but any true horse racing fan/gambler will appreciate Let It Ride, which is only the greatest horse racing movie…full stop. Alright, back to racing. The George Weaver trainee and son of Candy Ride offers some intriguing value in this turf sprint. He started his career on the dirt and showed good form breaking his maiden in his second start and then immediately willing an N1X allowance race going seven furlongs. Weaver ran him against takes company, but that might have been too much, too soon. The horse eventually made his way to the turf where he showed good early speed going two turns at Gulfstream Park while running 7 ½ furlongs. He faded late and would seem best suited for this type of sprint and shortening up. Weaver must have been encouraged by the first turf effort as he tried to get him back on the grass in May at Aqueduct, but it was rained off the turf. He has not been seen since but has been training since June up in Saratoga with his last three workouts coming on the grass. He has plenty of turf pedigree and Weaver has become quite adept at spotting his horses in turf sprints as he is winning 23% of those races over the last 13 months since the start of the 2023 Saratoga meet. Jockey Eric Cancel has guided the horse to a victory before and if he gets good speed out of him early, he should be sitting a perfect trip from the outside. Another longshot to consider is later in the card in Race 10 (post time 6:19 PM ET) as #9 Hard Par (8/1) is going out for Ran Handal’s barn and he has been hot at The Spa winning 33% of his entries through the first 2 ½ weeks at Saratoga. The horse is closer, but the turf course has been playing well to horses coming from off the pace and local fan favorite jockey Katie Davis is up on the mount. She just got her first win of the meet on Thursday and her wins tend to come in bunches.
LONGSHOT OF THE DAY UPDATE
Finding potential value based on the morning line odds can be tricky since if you see something to like in a longshot, others likely do as well. Suddenly, a morning line longshot ends up being a short price favorite or second choice.
As a result, I will provide some context for my longshot selections moving forward where I give their morning line odds and the lowest odds I would be comfortable playing them as a win bet. Some people refer to these as “fair odds,” which are highly subjective, but it is helpful to have guardrails. Have a number in mind for every race at which a horse you like becomes unplayable if they end up taking too much money. The inverse can be true as well. There is a number at which a horse you might be against floats up and suddenly becomes more appealing. Credit to NYRA morning line maker, David Aragona and others for starting this trend, which is a helpful service for horseplayers.
Learn more about the art and science of betting the races to win with our Betting 101 Guide and Handicapping 101 Guide or watch them on YouTube.
