Longshot of the Day
Finding potential value based on the morning line odds can be tricky since if you see something to like in a longshot, others likely do as well. Suddenly a morning line longshot ends up being a short price favorite or second choice. As a result, I will provide some context for my longshot selections moving forward where I give their morning line odds and the lowest odds, I would be comfortable playing them as a win bet.
Some people refer to these as “fair odds,” which are highly subjective, but it is helpful to have guardrails. Have a number in mind for every race at which a horse you like becomes unplayable if they end up taking too much money. The inverse can be true as well. There is a number at which a horse you might be against floats up and suddenly becomes more appealing. Credit to NYRA morning line maker, David Aragona, and others for starting this trend, which is a helpful service for horseplayers.
