Longshot of the Day
THURSDAY NOVEMBER 30
Track: Turfway Park
Race 5: $70K MSW going 1 1/8 miles on synthetic for 3+ fillies and mares
Post Time: 7:55 PM ET
Horse: #4 Sherbet Fountain (10/1)
Everyone gets excited about the start of the season at Turfway Park because of the large field sizes and the fact you can often find live longshots. One of the reasons you can find good longshots is because of the synthetic surface. Some horses just naturally take to it better than others and it is not uncommon to find synthetic specialists who may have struggled on dirt, turf, or both suddenly perk up over the all-weather track, which is what attracted me to Sherbet Fountain. She is an intriguing horse as she was bred in Kentucky and was purchased for $120,000 but started her career over in Europe. Her debut race at Kempton was over a synthetic surface and she ran well to finish third that day. However, she shifted over to turf in her next two races and did not show much. When you look at her pedigree, the fact she excelled on synthetic in debut should not be surprising. Her sire, Twirling Candy, won three races on synthetic surfaces, including the Californian Stakes (G2) at the old Hollywood Park. Meanwhile, her dam, Church Camp, won over synthetic as well and was a graded stakes runner over that surface. Sherbet Fountain is getting Lasix for the first time, which is often one of the reasons horses transfer from Europe to North America and now she gets back on a preferred surface. She has been working out in the United States since late September and should be ready to fire for a barn that does have success with horses making their North American debuts. At a price, she feels like an intriguing longshot who could surprise.
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 1
Track: Aqueduct
Race 6: $70K allowance going 6 furlongs on dirt for 3+ state-breds
Post Time: 2:42 PM
Horse: #8 Prince of Truth (6/1)
Friday is an interesting day at Aqueduct as there are a few Longshot of the Day contenders who I considered, but I think ultimately will run better underneath. Horses like #6 M B’s Munning (8/1) is Race 7 and #6 Wynning Touch (6/1) in Race 5 are both the types of horses I like to include on my vertical exotic tickets. However, for my actual selection, I will go with a horse coming out of a maiden race going against winners for the first time. Often that can be something I avoid, but I feel like this horse has some excuses in his first two efforts, which is why I selected Prince of Truth. The Linda Rice-trained is facing a solid group, however, Prince of Truth really showed a lot breaking his maiden last time out after being in the wrong spots the first two races. He finished fourth in debut in an off-turf race that saw the two top finishers win next time out. Then he ran on the grass in a race that produced four next out winners. He finally got on a dry fast track in a race intended for the dirt and really showed up as he traveled wide under jockey Jose Lezcano and still managed to put away the field. If he can display the tactical speed he did last time out, then I think he will sit a lot closer to the pace than the TimeFormUS Pace Projector thinks. Plus, Lezcano has the advantage of the outside gate to judge the pace scenario. Finally, this Into Mischief gelding was a $450,000 purchase, so there were some expectations, and it is possible he is just late to develop for Rice who also trained his half-sister La Kara Mia.
