Longshot of the Day: Race 6 at Saratoga

Track: Saratoga Racecourse

Race 6: $80K MSW going 5 ½ furlongs on turf for 2YO fillies

Post Time: 3:55 PM ET

Horse: #7 Imminent Risk (6/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 9/2 or higher.

Let’s kick off the week at Saratoga with a maiden race for my Longshot of the Day blog. Trainer Joe Sharp has been on fire this year at Saratoga winning 28% of his entries and Imminent Risk is a horse that could provide some intriguing value today. The daughter of Tiz the Law sold for only $13,000 as yearling at the Fasig-Tipton Keeneland October Sale in 2024 despite the fact the sire stands for 2 ½ times that price. It would seem to indicate the horse did not vet well at the sale, but Sharp owns a piece of this horse and held on to the filly for the last year with hopes of racing her. However, there is some intriguing dam side pedigree to suggest the horse will like the turf despite the mare going 0-4 with debut runners. Her one half-sibling, Winning At Ease, debuted on dirt, but she won the first time she ran on synthetic and showed another perk up once she ran on turf for the first time as well. Another half-sibling, Life Advice, again debuted on dirt, but won first time on the grass. Even the half-sibling who is a career maiden, Starship Elation, ran her best races on the turf. However, most of the time the family has debuted on dirt. Sharp appears to understand the turf will be the best spot for this one and while the workouts do not pop off the page, it is telling that he entered this one up here at Saratoga rather than keeping the horse in Kentucky and running her at Ellis Park. Perhaps the restricted nature of the race for maiden who sold for $60,000 or less is what attracted him to this spot, but he also picks up jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. for the mount. Ortiz Jr. has been riding as well as anyone, though he was a bit cold last week as he saw he win percentage at Saratoga dip from 29% to 24%, but he still holds a lead over his brother in the jockey standings. The final point circles back to something mentioned in the beginning, which is the influence of her sire Tiz the Law. The sire has produced 16% debut two-year-old winners and 17% winners in turf sprints. Despite his all-dirt racing form, he has solid turf pedigree and has produced good turf runners.