Longshot of the Day: Race 5 at Saratoga
Track: Saratoga Racecourse
Race 5: $17,500 claiming race going 1 mile for 3+
Post Time: 3:27 PM ET
Horse: #4 Dark Magic (12/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 8/1 or higher.
First off, a very happy 31st birthday to my sister Sara who is spending the day catching Pokemon in Bangkok, Thailand (you can’t make this stuff up, folks). Family celebrations aside, lets hit a big longshot to add to the celebration. Dark Magic for trainer Linda Rice seems like a horse that could run a big race on Thursday first off the claim coming out of Bill Mott’s barn. A lowkey angle I like to use is when a jockey stays on a horse despite trainer/ownership changes, which is what is happening here as Junior Alvarado stays up for the mount. This is only the second time in five years that Alvarado has ridden for Rice, with the last time coming in September…of 2022. Alvarado rode this horse to victory last time out in a NY-bred $30,000 maiden claimer going a mile down at Belmont at the Big A. Over the last five years, Rice is winning 38% of the time when running a last out maiden winner first off the claim. The horse showed good speed last time out for Alvardo and hopefully will do the same again as you do not want to be too far off the pace coming out of the Wilson Chute. The other advantage is that the horse draws a little further outside, which is ideal coming out of the chute as the inside horses can get pinched by the rail when crossing over to the main track. There is minimal speed in the race, and it feels like a race that will be dominated up front. The horse should fit at this level, and few are better than Rice at spotting her runners in the right spot. The horse has had a few works for the new barn and while Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher are getting headlines, Rice is steadily racking up wins during the Saratoga meet as she’s up to 16 overall and hitting at a 20% clip. This horse is in his third race back from a nine-month layoff and should appreciate today’s fast conditions on the main track today.