Sunland Park Oaks Picks

We’re heading out west for our second Kentucky Oaks prep race this week, the Sunland Park Oaks. With 20 points on the line, Bob Baffert is shipping in a new face on the Oaks trail, the #4 Maysam. The daughter of Game Winner won on debut, posting a 73 Beyer Speed Figure. This figure sets this filly apart from the entire field, hence being your morning line favorite at 9-5. She won smartly on debut, breaking a length or two off the leader from the 1 hole, and went in between horses to get to the leader’s outside under a strong hold. She was let loose around the turn and drew off to win dominantly. Now, it is not clear how good any of those horses she faced are, but she was in a league of her own in there as she was just notably bigger, stronger, and more mature than them. It will be interesting to see how she shapes up against this field, particularly the two Steve Asmussen runners, but she can regress off her maiden and still win here. She is well-prepared and well-intentioned here, and trainer Bob Baffert dominates this race as he has won it 8 times from 2007-2019.

Steve Asmussen is bringing two daughters of Gun Runner over as well, who are your second and third choices on the morning line. I landed on the #2 Runnin N Gunnin (3-1) as my second choice as she carries the best late pace of the group. The #4 Maysam and the #3 Pink Pacific are your speed horses, and the #6 Street Colors has some gate speed as well. The #3 Pink Pacific is stretching out for the first time after four starts all sprinting, as well as the #6 Street Colors. Runnin N Gunnin is the only horse to have a win at a mile against other winners, and the pace dynamics should set up nicely for her.

The #1 Rogue Justice (10-1) felt like a good option to use underneath out of your double-digit prices on the morning line. The daughter of Constitution just ran second in a listed stakes race at Sunland Park last time out and posted her highest Beyer Speed Figure to date of 55. Jockey Florent Geroux is hopping aboard for the first time, and if this filly either runs the same race she did last time out or takes a step up, she fits with most of your main players in here.

Will Bob Baffert sweep both the Sunland Park Oaks and Derby? It’s likely, but it will be interesting to see how much the others improve, especially Steve Asmussen’s two Gun Runner fillies. Reach out on NYRA Bets to give us your opinion on if anyone can challenge Maysam.