BET THE KENTUCKY OAKS

KENTUCKY OAKS BETTING TRENDS

In 2013, Churchill Downs instituted a point system based on how horses performed in a series of prep races to determine which 14 horses got into the starting gate for the Kentucky Oaks (G1). NYRA Bets handicapper Matthew DeSantis and Kaylie Shapiro sifted through the results from the last 12 runnings of the Kentucky Oaks (G1) to provide some trend data for betting and fading the favorite.

How does the Kentucky Oaks favorite do?

Since the start of the point system, we have not seen favorites do particularly well as they have only won two Kentucky Oaks (G1) while hitting the trifecta half the time. It speaks to the unpredictable nature of the race and why it is worth it to take a shot against the favorite. The two favorites who did win, Untapable and Malathaat, where superior fillies who went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) later in their careers. The fact so few favorites even make it into the top three is a shocking, but it might be hard to fade this year’s favorite, Good Cheer, out of the trifecta given that she is undefeated and fits the profile of Malathaat and both were undefeated coming into the race.

How do other top contenders do?

The second and third betting choices at the Kentucky Oaks are a bit of a mixed back as second choices have won more regularly than favorites, including last year with Thorpedo Anna who was less preferred than favorite Just FYI. However, neither second nor third choices have done particularly well hitting the board in the top three. It is important to remember that Kentucky Oaks fields have a maximum of 14 but regularly have fewer runners, so missing the top three when you are a top contender is surprising.

How to bet longshots?

With so many favorites losing, looking at longshots is critical to find a winner. Over the last 12 years, we have seen huge prices run into the top three with horses between 21/1 to 40/1 hitting the board at nearly the same rate as those who were 10/1 to 19/1 come post time. Nearly every year you can expect at least one, if not two or three, double-digit odds horses to run into the trifecta, which means selecting the top three choices is not advisable. In fact, since 2012 there has only been one year where the top three finishers were all under 10/1, which is the same number of times horses that the top three finishers were all OVER 10/1.

How should you bet the Kentucky Oaks?

Good Cheer will be a heavy favorite this year as she is undefeated and has never been seriously challenged, but history tells us to try and find an alternative. However, going for a massive longshot also feels unwise as 11 of the 12 winners have been 20/1 or lower with 67% of them have been 9/1 or lower. A horse like Quietside likely fits the bill as a runner who is going to be below 10/1 but is also a logical alternative to the favorite. Throwing in a massive longshot or two into the trifecta like Early On or Bless the Broken, both of whom are 30/1 on the morning line, also feels like a good strategy when looking at the history of the race.