BET THE PREAKNESS STAKES

PREAKNESS STAKES HORSE-BY-HORSE ANALYSIS

The field for the 149th Preakness Stakes has been drawn and a field of nine is set to square off for the second leg in horse racing’s Triple Crown at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore, Maryland on Saturday, May 18. To get you ready for the race, NYRA Bets handicapper Matthew DeSantis provides analysis for each horse in the field and gives you reasons for optimism and caution.

Post: #1
Horse: Mugatu (20/1)
Sire: Blofeld
Trainer: Jeff Engler
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Case for Victory: According to trainer Jeff Engler he is a horse that will get better with distance and that certainly appeared to be the case last time out as he earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure (87) while going 1 1/8 miles in the Blue Grass (G1) and finishing fifth. His sire, Blofeld, is criminally underrated and is producing a whopping 24% dirt route winners. He will be saving all the ground from the inside rail and could make a run at things if he gets the proper setup. His workouts have been sharp at Belterra Park leading up to the Preakness.
Case for Caution: He will have to pass every horse in the field and is unlikely to get the same hot pace he got in the Blue Grass (G1) which aided him in running up to a fifth-place finish. Additionally, he will need to improve his career best Beyer Speed Figure by at least another 10 points if he wants to be competitive in this spot. He has only won once in 12 career starts and this will be his biggest test to date. Trainer Jeff Engler is 0-11 in graded stake races over the last five years.

Post: #2
Horse: Uncle Heavy (20/1)
Sire: Social Inclusion
Trainer: Butch Reid Jr.
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Case for Victory: Another closer, Uncle Heavy has shown the ability to come from off the pace behind modest fractions and win a graded stake race as he did back in February at the Withers (G3). His fifth place in the Wood Memorial (G1) was not as bad as it might first appear as he was stuck with a wide post, which caused him to give up significant ground to the rest of the field. He will be sitting a much more comfortable trip on Saturday near the rail. He has some tactical speed to ensure he is not sitting last, and he should appreciate the extra distance. Finally, he picks up top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.
Case for Caution: He will need to improve his career best Beyer Speed Figure (84) even more than Mugatu to have a chance in this race. While he is a graded stake winner, Saturday’s field is a whole other ballgame compared to running against El Grande O, Deposition, and Society Man. He will need to pass nearly all the field while running against a higher caliber of horse.

Post: #3
Horse: Catching Freedom (6/1)
Sire: Constitution
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Case for Victory: The fourth-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby (G1) is one of the better horses in this crop having won the Louisiana Derby (G2) prior to running in Louisville. He has earned consecutive 97 Beyer Speed Figures in his last two races and if he maintains or slightly improves upon that number then he can compete for win honors. Another off-the-pace runner, he managed to save a lot of ground in the Kentucky Derby and will need to hope for a similar setup on Saturday. The smaller field size might allow him to sit more of a mid-pack trip before making his move. Trainer Brad Cox does not run his horses back on short rest often, so his placement here is encouraging. In fact, over the last five years Cox has run a horse back on 10-17-days rest in a graded stake race just once. The horse was Tawny Port and the time he ran on short rest, he won the Lexington (G3).
Case for Caution: He benefited from a pace collapse in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and did not move up as much as other horses dropped back. He was not making up ground on Mystik Dan despite going through the same inside hole on the rail. He kept on nicely but could have shown his maximum effort in that race. He is unlikely to get a similar pace setup on Saturday and could struggle to rundown a pair of fresh horses up front.

Post: #4
Horse: Muth (8/5) Muth has been scratched from the Preakness as of 5/15/24.

Post: #5
Horse: Mystik Dan (5/2)
Sire: Goldencents
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Case for Victory: The Kentucky Derby (G1) winner had a dream trip at Churchill Downs as he saved all the ground on the inside rail under a brilliant ride from Brian Hernandez Jr. The forecast on Saturday shows plenty of rain, which should suit the son of Goldencents just fine as his previous best effort was in the slop at Oaklawn Park when he dismantled the field in the Southwest (G1). It is not uncommon for horses to run back strong on two weeks’ rest after winning the Derby as we have regularly seen the victor come back to take the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown. In fact, it happened half the time (11 of 22 years) between 1997 and 2018. While it has not happened recently, in three of the last five years the official winner of the Kentucky Derby did not run back in the Preakness Stakes. Mystik Dan should get a good setup sitting no worse than fourth or fifth during the early stages before trying to make his move on the inside rail.
Case for Caution: He will be facing a few very strong fresh faces on Saturday and while he came out of the Kentucky Derby is good shape, he also benefited from a dream trip as he saved more ground than any other horse in the field. Can he replicate that trip and get over to the rail to make his favored inside move or will he be caught a little wide going around both turns? He also managed to strike to the front of the field in the Kentucky Derby (G1) rather early in the homestretch, which is unlikely to be the case on Saturday. Can he overtake a field late in a race after he desperately needed the wire to win in the Kentucky Derby (G1)?

Post: #6
Horse: Seize the Grey (15/1)
Sire: Arrogate
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Jaime Torres
Case for Victory: Winner of the Pat Day Mile (G2) on the Kentucky Derby Day undercard, the son of Arrogate is coming off his best performance. In his three victories he has led or tracked very closely to the pace, which should be the same setup he gets on Saturday. His pedigree would indicate distance will be no problem and wet conditions should be fine as well given Arrogate’s win 20% of their dirt route races and 22% of their races over a wet track. Lukas has won this race before and knows how to wheel horses back on short rest better than anyone, even if this is a slightly different situation coming out of the Pat Day Mile (G2) rather than the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Case for Caution: This will be Seize the Grey’s fourth race in seven weeks. I am all for running horses, but you do wonder if there is a cumulative effect that starts to take place, particularly as they stretch him back out from a mile. The horses he beat in the Pat Day Mile were hardly world beaters and his other non-maiden win came against an okay group of allowance-level horses. He will also need to move forward 8-10 Beyer Speed Figure points to contend for victory after running a career best 88 in his last race.

Post: #7
Horse: Just Steel (15/1)
Sire: Justify
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Case for Victory: The horse in the field that ran closest to Muth was only two lengths back in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and is picking up Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario. He has good tactical speed and should be tracking within a few lengths of the early pace, which is going to be better than the trip he got in the Kentucky Derby (G1) where he was pushed along to the front of the field. He is a horse that always just hangs around and could give a big effort on two weeks rest as The Coach has been successful with that move before.
Case for Caution: We have not seen a horse finish 17th or worse in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and run back in the Preakness (G1) since Goldencents did it in 2013 and he finished 9 ½ lengths back of the winner that day. Additionally, in his six career two turn races, he has lost by a combined 72+ lengths. Even if you take out his two worst performances (Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Futurity), he still lost the other four races by a combined 22+ lengths. Yes, he hangs around for minor awards, but he was never a serious win threat in any of those efforts and has not won since he sprinted at Churchill Downs last November.

Post: #8
Horse: Tuscan Gold (8/1)
Sire: Medaglia d’Oro
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Case for Victory: Young, ascending horse with rapidly improving Beyer Speed Figures, Tuscan Gold comes into the race with the potential for an even better effort. His last performance was a third in the Louisiana Derby (G2) which produced the fourth and eighth placed horses in the Kentucky Derby (G1). The race has also produced the Peter Pan (G3) winner (Antiquarian). Trainer Chad Brown has won the race twice before with Cloud Computing and Early Voting, and nearly won it last year with Blazing Sevens. The son of Medaglia d’Oro has good positional versatility as he can sit close to the pace or settle mid-pack and has shown that he will not struggle with today’s distance. He has yet to run his best race, which is a profile I like among this group. Additionally, he is coming in fresh off seven weeks rest.
Case for Caution: Saturday will be his biggest class test for a young horse who has only beaten maidens. He also will need to work out the right trip with speed to his outside and several horses to his inside that want to sit a similar trip. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione will have to work out the right trip to avoid getting hooked wide and determine whether he wants to use a little of the horse early to cross over most of the field to get to the rail or take back to save ground.

Post: #9
Horse: Imagination (6/1)
Sire: Into Mischief
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Case for Victory: The “other” Baffert runner has outstanding early speed and due to the outside post position, should be sent straight to the lead under jockey Frankie Dettori. The winner of the San Felipe (G2) finished just a neck behind Stronghold in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and has never finished out of the exacta in six career starts. He has been working out with Muth leading up to the race and keeping pace with the Arkansas Derby (G1) winner. Pimlico tends to be a speed favoring track on big days, which could play into his hands if he gets an unpressured trip on the front end. Does not need to improve much off his career best (96) Beyer Speed Figure.
Case for Caution: Has come up just short from having a true breakthrough victory. His win in the San Felipe (G2) was over stablemate Wine Me Up, who as I pointed out earlier, has not won a race outside of his maiden. In his two other non-maiden races, he came up short against Stronghold and stablemate Maymun. He has been on the wrong end of a close finish in three of his six career starts with Saturday being his toughest test. Has not shown the ability to pass horses and will have a significantly better group running at him than what he faced in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) where he still got passed late.