Santa Ynez Stakes Picks
Pace: There are several horses that want to contend for the lead in this Kentucky Oaks Prep race on Sunday at Santa Anita. Expect #4 Practical Dream to go early given the fact the horse has only won in gate-to-wire fashion. Additionally, #7 Silent Law for trainer Bob Baffert is going to be sent with jockey Juan Hernandez on the mount as there is little evidence the horse likes passing others and might struggle if she does not make the lead. Behind the two of them are a slew of other horses that want to sit no worse than third, which should push the pace more that you would expect. When analyzing pace, you want to look behind who will simply be on the lead and see how many horses want to be forward. In this case, nearly every other horse in the field prefers tracking from a length or two of the early pace so all those runners will be contending for position down the backside. It should push the two frontrunners to go a little faster as they’ll feel the pressure from the rest of the field.
Santa Anita Park, Race 7, Santa Ynez Stakes, Post Time-5:36 PM ET
#5 Look Forward – The daughter of Bolt d’Oro ran well last time out in the Starlet (G2) losing to Bob Baffert’s Tenma after holding the lead most of the way. She did some of the dirty work up front pushing the pace and still held strong for second while going 1 1/16 miles. The cutback to seven furlongs feels perfect and she broke her maiden in debut at Del Mar sprinting six furlongs. Trainer Michael McCarthy has some nice three-year-olds and this is another one to add to the mix. She is the half-sibling to multiple turf sprint stakes winner Amidst Waves while Bolt d’Oro is an outstanding dirt sprint influence up top. The horse can go straight to the lead but might also defer under the guidance of jockey Mario Gutierrez to avoid a three-way pace battle in the early going seeing as the horse has sat just off the pace before. McCarthy has been working this one out nicely leading up to Sunday including an impressive 47.1 second four-furlong bullet workout that was first of 62 on December 29.
#2 Howin – Trainer Bob Baffert has three entries in this race, and all can get the job done, but you might find a better price on this daughter of Gun Runner who was a $550,000 purchase at the Keeneland September sale of 2023. She is out of two-time stakes winning mare who was particularly precocious. Howin is also the half-sibling to Digital Ops who is a multiple time winner and just recently finished fifth in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) at Gulfstream Park. From a racing standpoint, she broke her maiden in debut at Santa Anita back in October, tracking the early pace before taking over and drawing away from the field. More impressively, the debut was at a mile and now she cuts back to seven furlongs, which I think will hit her right between the eyes given her running style and the other speed in the race. Jockey Kazushi Kimura takes over the mount of Baffert’s typical #1 choice Juan Hernandez, but Kimura has done well for Baffert in these spots. Over the last year, he is 3-9 (33%) winning dirt stakes races for the Southern California trainer and is 8-9 (89%) hitting the board. This is despite the fact he rarely rides Baffert’s #1 horse in the race. Howin will need to improve upon the 68 Beyer Speed Figure in debut, but she is working out sharp leading up to the raise and feels like a prime candidate to move forward.
#3 A. Z. Wildcat – There are things to like about this horse, but let’s start with the jockey. Flavien Prat, who will undoubtedly be give the Eclipse Award for Jockey of the Year in 2024, take the mount and that should serve notice about her chances. Considering that Prat typically rides for trainer Bob Baffert, it is notable when he forgoes riding any one of the three Baffert entries to mount up on a different horse. On the track, the daughter of Munnings won in debut at Los Alamitos back in June going five furlongs over a field that has yet to produce three eventual winners. She earned a 72 Beyer Speed Figure for the debut effort, and I love the series of five five-furlong workouts trainer John Sadler has put her through leading up to Sunday’s effort including a pair of bullets in the month of December. She has shown the ability to sit just off the pace and should get an ideal setup with several other horses contending for early position. Prat is one of the best jockeys in the world and knows how to ride the main track at Santa Anita as well as anyone. From a pedigree standpoint, she is the half-sibling to four-time winner Autumn Evening who is also a stakes-placed sprinter.
#7 Silent Law – I could have gone with #4 Practical Dream for trainer Tim Yakteen, but her effort in the Starlet (G2) was so bad and even her sprints efforts prior to that seemed to level off. Instead, I’ll go back to Baffert’s top choice and the daughter of Tiz the Law with jockey Juan Hernandez aboard. Santa Anita can sometimes become a merry-go-round where there is no passing on the main track. If that happens on Sunday, Silent Law will be the beneficiary as she has outstanding early speed, and Hernandez is an outstanding speed jockey. She drew well to the outside of the other potential pace presence and should sit a stalking trip. My biggest concern is this horse has gotten progressively slower in every start of her career, which coincides with stretching out to new distances. She finished second last time out in the Desi Arnaz Stakes where they ran in place all the way around, but the trend of going from 84 to 78 to 67 Beyer Speed Figure in her three career starts does not instill confidence when facing a tougher group. It is noteworthy that Hernandez appeared to have the choice of riding her or Howin and opted for Silent Law, so if you’re reading the jockey tea leaves that could be a checkmark in her favor.