THIS WEEK IN RACING

NYRA Bets is bringing you expert picks from Matthew DeSantis all week long. Check back as we continually update with more picks and analysis.

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SUNDAY, APRIL 21

Pace: Despite the modest six-horse field, the Illinois Derby has an intriguing early pace scenario. Let’s start with #6 Ravin’s Town (6/1) for Larry Rivelli who is still a maiden but is coming off a 5 ½ furlong MSW sprint at Hawthorne where he got to the lead but could not hold on to win. If he brings that same speed Sunday, then he should be on the lead. #2 Patriot Spirit (4/1) is another pace threat early as he won the Inaugural Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs by being very close to the lead early and was up front in the 2023 Iroquois (G3). However, his last two times out he had not shown the same gate speed, so it is hard to know what he will show on Sunday. Meanwhile, #3 Raguel (6/1) has experience going two turns and has won going today’s distance in gate-to-wire fashion while trainer Brendan Walsh adds blinkers. Whether he has the elite speed to contend with sprinters is another question though. The pace should be honest, but I do not think a speed duel will break out, which could make it more challenging for the two favorites to close from the back of the field.

#4 Woodcourt (5/2) – The modestly-sired son of Ransom the Moon sold for $95,000 at the Fasig-Tipton sales and has already won over $350,000 in 11 career starts. He is a rare horse who owns a win over dirt, turf, and synthetic. After winning consecutive optional claiming races he stepped up with a solid fourth in the Rebel (G2) while earning an 83 Beyer Speed Figure at odds of 44/1. Trainer Cipriano Contreras entered him in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) for this next start where he finished sixth, but that effort might be better than it looks. After jostling around a bit, he finished in a blanket five-way photo for second where he was less than a half length behind West Saratoga who is now awaiting the Kentucky Derby starting gate. He got back to training at Horseshoe Indianapolis and has had a couple of nice maintenance works leading up to Sunday’s race. What is particularly striking about him is his versatility. He has won closing from well off the pace as well as tracking from within a couple of lengths. In a race where there might not be a lot of speed, expect jockey Emmanuel Esquivel to have him positioned just behind the early leaders so that he stays within striking distance. He did not show any significant signs of fatiguing doing the nine-furlong distance last time out as the final margin was less about him tiring and more about the winner (Endlessly) pulling away from the field. He is a scrappy horse who has won without Lasix, and he won’t have to face horses like Timberlake and Endlessly now.

#3 Raguel (6/1) – The Brendan Walsh trainee has faced off against some highly regarded horses in his last two races after breaking his maiden the first time he raced on dirt. In those previous two efforts he finished behind a pair of Shug McGaughey runners, Change of Command and Conquest Warrior. At one point both horses were on several Kentucky Derby Contenders lists, though both fizzled in their prep races. That said, they are still talented horses and the son of Justify has been facing solid competition despite this being his first stake race. He could get the ideal trip on Sunday as the addition of blinkers combined with his natural gate speed means that he will be close to the lead and unlike both Ravin’s Town and Patriot Spirit, I have confidence he can get the distance. If the track is playing to front end speed, expect him to get first crack at the leaders and it might be enough to hold off the rest of the competition. Walsh is a very good trainer who might be better known for his turf runners but has had plenty of success on dirt in recent years with horses like Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous. He knows how to get horses ready for these types of races and the horse has won off Lasix before as well. Has been training very well at Keeneland leading up to Sunday.

#5 Le Gris (7/2) – Like Woodcourt, this son of City of Light has shown great surface versatility having raced across all three surfaces while winning over turf and dirt. The dirt victory does have a slight asterisk as it was originally carded for the turf but was taken off due to weather at Fair Grounds. Additionally, both victories came with the assistance of Lasix. His three non-Lasix efforts have not been exemplary. He finished third in debut at Saratoga in a nice race that featured Trade Imbalance and Agate Road, but then took a big step back in his second start at Churchill Downs before switching to turf (and Lasix). Last time out he ran in the Rushaway at Turfway Park and while he earned a respectable 72 Beyer Speed Figure, he also finished ninth and appeared to be tired late while going 1 1/16 miles. The other question will be what trip he ends up getting. He showed solid early speed in his first two races but has not flashed that same acceleration out of the gate in his recent starts. He should be able to sit a mid-pack trip in this field like Woodcourt, but I question whether he has the same stamina. This will be a test, but he keeps Midwest veteran jockey Jareth Loveberry aboard.

#1 Real Men Violin (3/1) – Easily the best back class in the field, the Ken McPeek runner is coming out of three straight Grade 2 races in which he’s faced some of the best horses in his crop. After bouncing around to different surfaces he finally broke his maiden on dirt over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs last October and then stepped up to run second to Kentucky Derby starter Honor Marie in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). However, the field of eight from that race has combined for exactly ZERO wins since that effort on November 25, 2023. He has been a complete non-factor in his last two races, which were the Risen Star (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2), the latter in which he was eased to finish 47 lengths behind the winner. As is the case with all McPeek horses, he has been working out well coming back from that race, but it is hard to trust him at a short price considering his lone victory came over a sloppy track and he has now shown anything in his three-year-old season. If he were 8/1 or 10/1 then he would be an appealing longshot just based off his back class, but as the second choice in the race, I have a hard time using him in my tickets. His new jockey for Sunday, Reylu Gutierrez, always gives strong rides but it seems likely that the horse will try to make his move from the back of the field and has struggled passing horses in recent starts.

Strategy: You must look at the sequence it its totality to determine the best way to play this race, but Woodcourt certainly looks good in this spot, but I am not sure he is worthy of being a single on your horizontal tickets. At the 5/2 price, I do not mind using him and Raguel who I believe is the next most logical alternative. I am against Real Men Violin in this spot after being eased last time out and turning in two rather poor performances in 2024. Le Gris is an X-factor given his multi-surface form, but I wonder if he is quite the same horse running off Lasix. I will probably just go two deep in this leg as I really want to avoid using half the field in a six-horse race while using Woodcourt.