San Felipe Stakes (G2) Picks

Pace Scenario

The two horses with the best early foot, #4 Brant (even) and #5 Potente (9-2), are both trained by Bob Baffert, so expecting a speed duel between them feels unlikely. That said, you can see strong early speed from #6 So Happy (2-1) and #7 Robusta (20-1) who is getting blinkers added for trainer Doug O’Neill. Both horses are fast out of the gate with So Happy stretching out to route for the first time while Robusta’s lone victory came in gate-to-wire fashion. Therefore, while it’s possible one, or both, of them place pressure on Brant or Potente from their outside position, the pace still feels like it will stay together and not get unreasonable as the main contenders should all be forwardly spotted.

Analysis

I am not sold on Brant, particularly at even money, for reasons I will explain later in the piece, so I am going to take a swing with a horse I liked in the Robert B. Lewis, #3 Secured Freedom (8-1) for trainer Tim Yakteen. The son of Practical Joke was coming off a maiden victory going 6 ½ furlongs prior to make his stakes debut in February. His trip in the Robert B. Lewis was less than ideal, as he was caught wide around both turns and forced to the back of the seven-horse field. Despite the troubles, he was making up significant ground late to finish third and blew by the top two finishers, Plutarch and Intrepido, during the gallop out. Physically, he is a rangy horse which is not necessarily what you would expect from a Practical Joke, who typically produces one-turn horses, but he seems like the type who will appreciate more ground. On the female side, he is out of an Uncle Mo mare (Securely), who was a career maiden, but has produced 26% dirt route winners in 19 starts between her four raced foals. On Saturday, I expect him to be better positioned than he was last time out as he hopped and broke out a bit at the start from the far outside post, but has shown plenty of good early speed in his sprint races to indicate he is a tracking or stalking type. I am not sure how many of these horses want the 1 1/16-mile distance on Saturday, but Secured Freedom is a horse that knows how to pass others, is coming off a tough trip last time out, and should appreciate stretching out the extra half furlong.

I nearly went with #6 So Happy (2-1) as my top selection, but I do have some questions on the two-turn pedigree. The son of Runhappy could not have looked better winning the San Vicente over heavily favored Buetane last month. Granted, Buetane went on to finish a pedestrian third in the Southwest (G3), but I do believe around one-turn he is a legitimate horse within the three-year-old crop. Meanwhile, So Happy has bested odds-on Bob Baffert favorites in each of his two starts, as he knocked off Blacksmith in debut before beating his stablemate in the San Vicente. Now, the Mark Glatt trainee is going for his third straight win over an odds-on Baffert runner. All that said, I do wonder if he will pass his two-turn test. Runhappy is overwhelmingly a sprint/one-turn influence as his top offspring are routinely top sprinters and So Happy’s dam, So Cunning, won her first two starts at six furlongs before not being able to get a mile and being retired. However, she is by Blame, who is one of the best broodmare sires we have in the sport and his second dam, So Glitzy, won going nine furlongs, so there is some distance deeper in the family. Additionally, he is not a speedball who needs the lead, but has shown he can kindly rate off the pace in both career starts. Hall of Famer “Big Money” Mike Smith is back aboard, and he draws to the outside of Brant, which is a tactical advantage. He has every right to win and will be included on all my tickets as I try to beat Brant with a few horses.

Speaking of #4 Brant (even), the heavily hyped $3 million son of Gun Runner for Hall of Famer trainer Bob Baffert is making his first start since finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) on Halloween at Del Mar. The jury is still out on how productive that race will prove to be in 2026 as winner Ted Noffey has been sidelined with an injury. The same can be said for runner-up Mr. AP. Fourth-place finisher and stablemate, Litmus Test, came back to win the Los Al Futurity (G2), but then faded last weekend in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park. To be clear, Brant is the only Grade 1 winner in the field, having taken the Del Mar Futurity (G1) in only his second start, but he got the perfect trip up front and might face more pressure and fade as he did as a juvenile in his first two-turn test. Unsurprisingly, he has been working well for Baffert, but I have never been a big fan of the horse’s stride mechanics and I believe he is ultimately best around one turn where he can leverage his outstanding speed. Jockey Florent Geroux seems to have landed on his feet after being removed from most of Brad Cox’s top runners and has emerged in California as one of Baffert’s new “go to” guys, but Baffert can have a short leash on jockeys, so it will be critical for Geroux to get Brant to the front and into a comfortable rhythm. By Saturday evening, I could look foolish for betting against the horse, but the combination of his first race in four months, along with his stride mechanics and previous challenges around two turns does not make him appealing at the price.

Finally, I want to give some love to another longshot as Dan Blacker’s Cal-bred #2 Start the Ride (12-1) is coming off a maiden-breaking score going 1 1/16 miles in the Cal Cup Derby. The son of Upstart is out of a Tiznow mare and clearly relishes going long. He was declared a non-starter in his first race due to issues at the gate, but did run that day to finish fourth after spotting the leaders 13 lengths. Blacker clearly knew what he had as they went straight to stakes competition next time out and handled it with ease sitting mid-pack before drawing off to win by nearly two lengths. He will need to ensure he starts a bit better on Saturday, but if he can get away in a decent position, he can pass horses and will provide outstanding value for a horse who is bound to run into the Trifecta or the Superfecta.