Virginia Oaks Picks

Pace Scenario

The pace scenario for the Virginia Oaks is relatively straightforward, as #1 Dazzling Dame (5-2) will send from the inside rail, and she possesses the best early speed. Expect #4 Kadabra (6-1) to be close to her in the early stages, but I am skeptical she has the same early speed as Dazzling Dame based on some of the fractions they have run on the lead while routing. Meanwhile, #3 Bottle of Rouge (6-5) should be content to sit behind the lead pair with a contender like #2 Hit Parade (3-1) sitting in the latter half of the field. I do not expect a blistering pace, which favors leaders and stalking-type runners.

Analysis

I am a huge fan of #1 Dazzling Dame (5-2) for trainer Brittany Russell, as the daughter of Girvin is 4-5 winning, with her only loss coming in the Pocahontas (G3), which is the only race where she broke slowly and made an early move to the lead before fading. She bounced back from that effort to win the White Clay Creek Stakes to close out her juvenile campaign before coming back as a three-year-old and dominating the Busanda by over 11 lengths. What made her victory at Aqueduct even more impressive was that the runner-up, Two Bits, came back to win the Ruthless Stakes in her next start while improving her Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) by 16 points. Dazzling Dame boasts the best BSF in the field with a 90 for her effort in the Busanda and is coming into this race fresh for a trainer who knows the mid-Atlantic well. On the track, Dazzling Dame has dazzling early speed, and her position from the inside rail ensures she will use it to get to the early lead. There is not a significant amount of pace in the field, so I would expect jockey Jevian Toledo to be able to control things up front. Toledo has written the filly three times previously and won each time, so he knows what makes her click and how to get the most out of her. From a pedigree standpoint, I know she has a fair amount of sprint influence as Girvin’s don’t scream out for more ground typically, and her immediate female family points to sprint as well. That said, the one-turn mile and a sixteenth trip should not be an issue, given the pace as well as the way Colonial Downs plays, as it can carry speed on the main track. I love the price you will get on her as Bob Baffert’s filly will take the most money at the windows, but I believe Dazzling Dame has been an under-the-radar filly this entire Oaks season and is about to burst through in a big way.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert ships #3 Bottle of Rouge (6-5) across the country for another Kentucky Oaks prep race after the daughter of Vino Rosso won the Sunland Park Oaks, but that was not without controversy. She swerved significantly in the stretch, and the stewards took a long look but ultimately made no change to the order of finish. Last-out issues aside, Bottle of Rouge boasts an impressive resume, with wins over both Champion Two-Year-Old Filly Super Corredora while the two were in the maiden ranks, as well as a win over Explora in the Del Mar Debutante (G1). While Explora has gone on to be one of the top Kentucky Oaks prospects, Bottle of Rouge was often considered a cut below some of the other Baffert fillies and his decision to ship her to Sunland Park and now Colonial Downs could reflect her “pecking order” in the barn, but the reality is she is the lone Grade 1 winner in the field and has done little wrong in her career. Her only poor effort was a forgettable sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), which was her first test around two turns. She went to the bench for a few months before returning to the Sunland Park Oaks, where she was assigned a career-best 86 BSF, which is promising to see her move forward as a three-year-old after largely running the same figures her entire juvenile campaign. She should sit a perfect trip on Saturday as she will sit just off the early speed of Dazzling Dame and Kadabra with reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat in the irons. Perhaps she has been overlooked during most of the Oaks build-up, and I might even be selling her short now, but my selecting her second has less to do with any deficiencies she may have and more to do with how much I like Dazzling Dame at the price.

I feel this is a two-horse race, and my opinion of the remaining fillies drops off a bit after those two. #2 Hit Parade (3-1) is a nice filly as she won the Untapable Stakes at Fair Grounds two back, but I do question her class a bit after a fifth-place effort in the Martha Washington Stakes, where the winner, Search Party, came back to run fourth in the Honeybee (G3). Perhaps her recent regression should not be surprising, considering the Brad Cox filly started her career in a maiden special weight race on the grass at Horseshoe Indianapolis before getting dropped in for a tag in a maiden claiming $50,000, where she broke her maiden. She went on a run after that, beating starter allowance and listed stakes company, but might be at her ceiling. Her career-best BSF is an 81, which is nowhere near good enough to win on Saturday as the two top fillies have been assigned significantly better figures in their last starts. Additionally, she is more of a plodding type in a race where I expect the winner to come from the leaders or those stalking the pace. She would need to take a big step forward to compete with the top two, but she likely has the class to at least hit the board. I do not like her 3-1 morning line price at all and hope it floats up a bit to make her more usable in vertical wagers.

Finally, you have #4 Kadabra (6-1) for trainer Todd Pletcher, who is likely going to be the other significant pace presence in the race with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez aboard. The daughter of Good Magic started her career in a Spring baby race at Keeneland. Those races rarely produce significant players at three years old, but that one appears to be the exception to the rule, as the winner that day, Lennilu, is a three-time stakes winner and finished third at Royal Ascot. Kadabra won her next start after finishing second in her debut, but then went to the bench for seven months before returning in an allowance optional claimer, where she faded badly. Her last start was a step in the right direction as she finished third in the Suncoast Stakes to top Kentucky Oaks prospect Zany and Life of Joy. In that race, she was able to control things up front, going 49.2 seconds to the half mile and 1:13.1 to the six-furlong mark, which are pedestrian fractions at Tampa Bay Downs. She will need to show better early foot to keep up with Dazzling Dame in the first furlong if she wants to sit a similar trip to the ones she has faced in the past. She also needs to continue to get faster, but she did move forward 16 BSF points from her first-to-second start of the year, so another significant move forward in her third race in the form cycle could put her in contention.