Bet the Belmont Stakes

BELMONT STAKES BETTING TRENDS

To get you ready for the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga (G1), NYRA Bets handicapper Matthew DeSantis went back to 2013 and looked at betting trends that can help you score big in the final leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown.

Why use 2013 as a starting point?

The Road to the Kentucky Derby started in 2013, which assigned points for order finish in major prep races. The adoption of the point system had some impact on the way horses were campaigned for the Kentucky Derby (G1) and therefore had a trickle-down effect on the other legs of the Triple Crown. Using 2013 as a starting point allows us to have some trend data without too much variation in circumstances between eras.

How does the post time favorite do?

Pretty solid. Favorites have won at a 42% clip since 2013, which includes Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify. Additionally, post time favorites have finished in the money at an 83% rate and rarely run bad races. Obviously, this is a much higher win percentage than you see from favorites in the Kentucky Derby (G1) for a variety of reasons. First, you have a significantly smaller field rather than the 20-horse calvary charge that takes place on the First Saturday in May. Secondly, by the time we get to the Test of Champions, the cream has risen to the top and it becomes more obvious to bettors who are the top three-year-old in their crop whereas in the Kentucky Derby there are still a significant number of questions surrounding even the best horses.

How do other top contenders do?

Outside of favorites, the second and third betting choices do not make as much of an impact as you might expect with only one second choice winning and zero third choices winning during the last 12 years. Moreover, they do not even fire at a high rate as the second choice hit the board at a 42% clip and the third choice only hit the board at a 17% rate, which is well below expectations given field size. From a betting standpoint, you would be wise to use the post time favorite in all of your vertical wagers but find some prices beyond the top choice.

This year’s race will be particularly fascinating given that you will have three strong top choices in the form of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Sovereignty, Preakness Stakes (G1) winner (and Derby runner-up) Journalism, and then the third-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby (G1) Baeza whose half-sibling, Dornoch, won last year’s Belmont Stakes at Saratoga.

How about longshots?

Like the Preakness Stakes (G1), massive longshots are less likely due to smaller field size compared to the Kentucky Derby (G1). The Belmont Stakes have been relatively kind to modest longshots over the last 12 years as 33% of races have been won by horses at odds of 10/1 or higher, but they only comprise around 28% of the horses in the trifecta during that same stretch. Another fascinating trend is that the last four years have gotten significantly chalkier than the previous eight years with more 9/1 and lower horses making up the winning trifecta. Big longshots that are 20/1 or higher have not won during this stretch and are only 11% of the winning trifecta, so using huge prices underneath is not necessarily a winning strategy.

How to bet longshots?

Overall, you can feel comfortable taking shots against top choices as horses with double-digit odds have won 33% of the Belmont Stakes races over the last 12 years and those 10/1 to 19/1 runners are likely, relatively to their odds, to hit the trifecta. However, using big prices is not a winning strategy from a better’s perspective and this year’s race could be a great example. You are likely to see Sovereignty and Journalism vying for favoritism while a horse like Baeza will be a strong third choice. Bob Baffert’s runner Rodriguez is likely going to be lone speed and will be fourth choice with strong support. Once you get beyond those four, a horse like Hill Road or Gosgar could make some sense, but neither of those horses will be near 20/1 and are likely to fall into the 8/1 to 12/1 range.

How do different running styles perform?

One of the big changes with the Belmont Stakes (G1) taking place at Saratoga is that the race will take place at 1 ¼ miles rather than the traditional 1 ½ distance. Obviously, that could change the nature of winning running styles, as we saw Dornoch basically go gate-to-wire last year, which is a very rare occurrence over the last 12 runnings of the race. Generally, the race has been won by those tracking the pace (58%) and 50% of the trifecta during that stretch were also comprised of horses tracking the pace. People have often, incorrectly, said horses closing from off the pace will do better at a longer distance, but we have not seen that running style translate to success in the Belmont Stakes (G1). The reason is the pace is typically not fast enough to be conducive to deep closers, which is particularly important for this year as horses like Sovereignty and Hill Road will be coming from the back of the field.

How should you bet the Belmont Stakes?

First, you should bet the Belmont Stakes (G1) on NYRA Bets! Not only do we have great promotions, but we have outstanding handicapping and betting tutorials along with race analysis so you can feel confident betting more than just the Belmont Stakes (G1).

For the 2025 renewal, there are three strong contenders in the form of Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza, but a horse like Rodriguez or Gosger could present intriguing value given the lack of early speed signed on in the race and they will likely go off between 6/1 and 12/1, and horses at those odds have generally run well and even upset the apple cart over the years.