Belmont Stakes Racing Festival Sunday Picks

BELMONT STAKES RACING FESTIVAL - SUNDAY, JUNE 9 PICKS

There are a talented group of 3-year-old New York-bred sprinters, but #1 Antonio of Venice (6/5) has appeared to separate himself a bit from his peers as he has won three of his last four stake races including a dominant victory in the Damon Runyan by 9+ lengths. He followed that up with a win in the New York Stallion Series last time over several of today’s rivals. The Rudy Rodriguez trainee earned a career-high 91 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort and has shown solid improvement in each of his last four starts. He has outstanding early speed to escape the rail but does have the patience to track from off the pace. Seven furlongs is likely his maximum distance, but he won a stake race back in December at that distance. Going for a little bit of a price with my second choice as #5 Grand Opening (8/1) debuted against Antonio of Venice in that NY Stallion Stakes race back in April where he finished third. He then dropped down to face fellow maidens at Pimlico and crushed the competition by seven lengths in a race that has already produced a next out winner. Now he jumps back up against serious company but has the experience to use his exceptional early speed. He might need the lead, but he has been training very forwardly and may continue to mature while providing great value as an upset or underneath play. #4 Doc Sullivan (5/2) has been second best each time he has faced off against NY-bred stakes competition losing to Pandagate in the Gander and then losing to Antonio of Venice two back. He impressed last time out by getting a win against open company in an allowance optional claiming race. He likes to come from off the pace and might get a little pace setup if Grand Opening and Antonio of Venice go at each other, but that feels unlikely. He’s a good horse but might just be a cut below the top in this division. It is hard for me to know what to do with #3 Elysian Meadows (4/1). The Bill Mott trainee was briefly on the Kentucky Derby trail and then he tried the turf last time out. Now he is cutting back to sprinting and returning to the dirt against fellow New York-breds. He is 2-2 winning against fellow New Yorkers as he beat horses like Mischief Joke and Big Prankster in those two starts. Would hardly shock me to see him win, but I would need to see him back in the winner’s circle before I trust him again.

There are a couple of nice Chad Brown runners in this race, and I am drawn to #5 Marvelous Maude (5/2) who is the second choice on the morning line. The daughter of Slumber has had solid career having won five races and finishing in the money in 11-13 career starts. He won last year’s renewal of the Mount Vernon Stakes while coming off a significant layoff and then promptly went to the bench for another 11 months. He came back against open stakes company in the Plenty of Grace and finished third but is now second back while dropping in against fellow New York-breds, which feels like the right spot. If she can return to her 2022 and 2023 form, everyone should be running for second. The other Brown runner is #8 Overacting (9/2) who will be facing stakes company for the first time but won her first start of 2024 against allowance competition while earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure. I always like using horses who run a career-best off the bench as there should be another gear for them to reach in their second start back. Brown is a plus trainer in these spots and this is one pointing in the right direction. What makes both Brown runners so formidable is they have tactical speed and will not be coming from the clouds, which gives both jockeys some flexibility in what rides they choose to give. Morning line favorite #1 Silver Skillet (2/1) is an accomplished runner for trainer Christophe Clement who is making her second start back in 2024. She does not always win as much as you would like to see (3-12) but hits the board 75% of the time. Clearly the horse likes Saratoga as she is 2-2 winning over the grass at The Spa including last year’s Suzie O’Cain Stakes. She has good tactical speed to escape the rail but has the versatility to track the pace. It would not shock me to see her win, but it feels like she could be facing some tougher company and has a knack for coming up just short. Finally, I will take a mild shot with #9 Stonewall Star (6/1) who is trying turf for the first time for trainer Horacio De Paz. There is solid pedigree for liking the green stuff as her dam, Jonata, foaled 29% winners going long on the turf including New York-bred turf route stakes winner Whatlovelookslike. De Paz is a sharp trainer, and the horse is a four-time stakes winner on the dirt, so there is clearly some talent. How he takes to the grass is a question mark, but if you’re willing to take a shot on a bit of an unknown there is legitimate talent here.