San Felipe Picks

Pace: Trying to figure out the pace dynamics in a California Kentucky Derby prep race can be a challenge when one trainer, Bob Baffert, has so much influence over the start, middle, and end of these contests. I do not begrudge Baffert for having so many of his horses entered as he has the top Kentucky Derby contenders, but it is hard to know who will send, who will rate, and who will get the ideal trip. Take the Robert B. Lewis (G3) which featured a trio of Baffert contenders: Citizen Bull, Rodriguez, and Madaket Road. Somehow, Citizen Bull managed to get an uncontested lead in the race and took them gate-to-wire. In Madaket Road’s next start in the Rebel (G2), the horse blazed to the front running 22.2 and 45.3 second fractions to the opening quarter and half mile, which were significantly faster than the opening fractions of the Robert B. Lewis (G3). Yet, he was rating in third/fourth position most of that race. The point here is not some grand conspiracy theory but illustrate pace dynamics in these races are difficult to predict. There is little question that on paper, #3 Barnes and #4 Rodriguez have the best early speed in the field, but both are trained by Baffert, and the $300,000 question is whether they go at each other early or if one of them establishes an easy lead with the other tracking just off the pace.

#3 Barnes – For all numbers and analysis, sometimes the easiest thing to do is let the trainer tell you, through his actions, who he views as his top prospect. In the case of Bob Baffert, the top prospect would certainly appear to be Barnes. The $3.2 million son of Into Mischief is named after longtime Baffert assistant Jimmy Barnes, so you know this horse means something to the barn. Additionally, of all the horses in Baffert’s barn, he chose Barnes as the first horse to run at Churchill Downs after serving his 3+ year suspension from the track. Do you really think Bob Baffert would ship an unraced two-year-old across the country for his first race if there was not a message being sent? The message was clear: I’m back and I’m loaded for the 151st Kentucky Derby. On the track, Barnes won in debut over Innovator who was runner up in the Advent Stakes in his next start and finished third in the Lecomte (G3) three starts later. Barnes came back to California and cruised to an easy victory in the San Vicente (G2) going seven furlongs as he beat stablemate Romanesque and another promising runner, Bullard, that day. Baffert’s #1 jockey, Juan Hernandez hops off Rodriguez to stay aboard Barnes, which should be another indication of who is the top dog in the barn. With Hernandez aboard, you can be sure the intent is to go to the front as that is what Hernandez does better than most. The horse has been working beautifully leading up to his first two turn race, which he should handle with a plomb. He will be a short price, and it is a risk to bet on a horse trying to do something for the first time at a short price, but from a talent standpoint, it is hard to ignore the potential.

#2 Journalism – If I want to squeeze some value out of this race, then skip the Baffert entries and play this son of Curlin who was a $825,000 purchase and has big expectations in his own right. Trainer Michael McCarthy has a good one here as the horse easily bested two Baffert entries in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) last time out as he took down Getaway Car and Gaming. The latter might not be much as he followed up that third-place finish with a distant eighth in the Southwest (G3), but beating Getaway Car gets a feather in the cap for Journalism as that horse went on to win the Sunland Derby in his next start while earning a 92 Beyer Speed Figure, which was a 10-point improvement from the Los Al race. The biggest issue for Journalism is that he is unlikely to get the lead and will be tracking behind the early speed of Barnes and Rodriguez, but what cannot be denied is that he is built for two turns. Both of his career wins have been at a mile or longer and his pedigree screams distance. Curlin is one of our great Classic sires with an average winning distance of 7.6 furlongs, which is nearly a full furlong more than Barnes’ sire Into Mischief (6.8 furlongs). Additionally, Journalism has tremendous dam side pedigree with Uncle Mo and Bernardini influence. He took about a month off after that victory at Los Al but has come back to record five workouts leading up to this race and the most recent efforts in the mornings have been visually impressive. He is a serious horse and could provide the best value in the race and is the best bet as a result.

#4 Rodriguez – Your opinion of Rodriguez is likely going to determine how you bet the race. If you feel like jockey Flavien Prat guns it to the front, then perhaps you think he can take them gate-to-wire, which he did two back when breaking his maiden (with Lasix) and recording a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. The reality is the horse has not shown the ability to pass others yet, so he could be a “need the lead” type. It is hard to know what to take out of the Robert B. Lewis (G3) effort because of the small field and pace dynamics that day with Citizen Bull being allowed to walk the dog up front. It is hard to nitpick the fact the Hernandez dropped off the ride in favor of Barnes because Rodriguez now picks up the reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey in the form of Flavien Prat. I am not as big a fan of Rodriguez’s pedigree as it points a little more to sprinting, though he is a half to One Liner who ran a 102 Beyer Speed Figure going two turns at Oaklawn Park while winning the Southwest (G3) back in 2017. He is also the half-sibling to Provocateur who was a stakes-winning sprinter. The 100 Beyer Speed Figure two back and his runner-up to Citizen Bull likely means he will take a significant amount of money at the windows, which makes me want to look elsewhere. From a better standpoint, how much can you really afford to spread in a six-horse race (for now) in which three are trained by Baffert? It would be hard to go three deep in this leg as there is a good chance you would catch an odd-on favorite or a below 2/1 second choice as your winner while vastly increasing the cost of your ticket. Ultimately, I need Rodriguez to beat me and show he can beat winners, which is something the other two have already done.