Ruffian (G2) Picks

Pace Scenario

Expect a strong early pace in the Ruffian (G2) on Saturday as several of these runners want to be up front going down the backstretch. #3 Eunomia has exceptional early speed and will likely have to go to the front due to her post position drawing inside several other speed horses. She can stalk the pace but does not get the benefit of an outer post. Meanwhile, #5 Inefficiency is anything but inefficient with her early foot as she has shown a desire to be forward in her first two career starts. Veteran #6 Irish Maxima always has exceptional early speed and has been training very forwardly for John Servis and gets the benefit of being outside speed, so she will be pressing the questions or crossing over the field. The pace X-factor are the other two Saffie Joseph Jr. horses as #2 Ultimate Authority is getting blinkers added, which could infuse more speed while #4 Dazzling Move is getting blinkers off. Traditionally she’s shown good speed but appears to have lost that the last few times out and the equipment change could be meant to wake her up. Either way, the pace will be strong and could setup nicely for horses coming from off the pace.

Analysis

Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey is as patient as they come, so when he entered #1 Cassiar in this race, it made me take a second look. The daughter of City of Light has a promising start to her career, winning in her debut and notching a second victory in her third career start. However, she did not run well in the Virginia Oaks or a subsequent race and was sent to the bench for seven months before returning in February to run second to Five G in an optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park. She hasn’t been seen since, but has been working consistently since that race, which would indicate that McGaughey has been patiently getting the screws tightened for her first stakes attempt in nearly a year. Yes, she will need to get fast on the speed figures, but I love the fact that McGaughey has entered her in this spot as it shows confidence for incredibly patient connections, and her pedigree would indicate she is only going to keep improving, as City of Light was best as he aged, and his progeny have generally moved forward as they’ve gotten more time on the track. I love her workouts leading up to this race, and most significantly, I love how the race sets up for her as they will be pressing a strong pace from the early stages, which gives Cassiar the ability to run into something turning for home. She will be a big price, but I love the connections, her placements in this spot, and the way the race sets up for her.

I’m a big fan of #3 Eunomia, who you could argue is getting class relief after nearly winning the Doubledogdare (G2) at Keeneland last time out before getting nabbed by the ultra-consistent Alpine Princess. Since joining trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.’s barn, she’s turned in incredibly reliable performances, having never finished off the board while facing stiff company. Her third-place finish three back in the Royal Delta (G3) looks incredibly strong as the winner that day, Claret Beret, came back to win the Apple Blossom (G1) in her next start, while runner-up Alpine Princess and her dueled to a 1-2 finish at Keeneland. Eunomia won the one division of the Sandy Bottom Stakes at Colonial Downs on Virginia Derby Day and bested Queen Azteca, who also came back to win her next start against allowance company at Keeneland. The only issue I have with her in this race is that I do not like her post and pace dynamics. She draws inside the other major speed presences in the race and could be forced to go from the start without a break down the backstretch. She showed a lot of guts going 1 1/16 miles last time out, but was sitting in the catbird seat stalking the pace. The cutback to a mile should be ideal, and she won a one-turn stakes race at Colonial Downs. If she can somehow not be too pressured early, she could easily take them gate-to-wire, though she loses jockey Flavien Prat, who opts to ride for Chad Brown, which makes sense as he rides for Brown regularly.

Speaking of Brown and Prat, they have a pretty good option in this race in the form of #5 Inefficiency. The lightly raced daughter of Constitution is making only her third career start while facing stakes company for the first time. She has easily handled the competition the first two times out, winning by a combined 12 ¼ lengths against maiden and optional claiming competition. However, those were relatively short fields with only four other runners, so this will be a much bigger challenge. She is switching off Lasix, which is notable as over the last five years, Brown is only 2-23 (9%) switching horses four years old and up off Lasix in dirt graded stakes races. On the track, she possesses great early speed but has also shown the patience to stalk the pace, which should give Prat plenty of options at the break. His biggest issue will be how Irish Maxima gets out of the gate and whether she opts to hound the early speed or tries to cross and clear, which would allow Inefficiency to get a better spot on the outside, tracking the pace. The other legitimate question with her is whether she will have to get faster on Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs) while switching off Lasix and stepping up in class. Those questions might be enough to deter you from betting on her at a short price, but the talent is obvious. Plus, she’s 2-2 going a mile at Aqueduct, so clearly the distance and surface hits her right between the eyes.