Risen Star Picks

Pace: Expect a strong pace in the first 50-point Kentucky Derby prep of the season where the winner is virtually guaranteed a spot in the starting gate of the 151st Kentucky Derby come the first Saturday in May. From the inside, #1 American Promise (12/1) will gun it from the rail as he has strong early speed and will want to avoid getting shuffled back at the start. Meanwhile, you can expect #4 East Avenue (9/5) to go back to old habits and avoid the poor start he had in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) to ensure a forward trip on the lead. Additionally, Chad Brown’s #7 Septarian (12/1) is getting blinkers on and has shown good speed sprinting after attempting to rate in the Mucho Macho Man. Those three might be fastest out of the gate, but horses like #2 Jonathan’s Way (4/1), #3 Vassimo (8/1), #9 Built (5/1), and #13 Magnitude (12/1) all have strong early speed and some of those will want to cross over to save ground. Remember that a month ago the Lecomte was won by a horse (Disco Time) coming from well off the pace and last year Sierra Leone won this race in thrilling fashion with a massive late run, so you can make up ground on the track if they go too fast up front.

#4 East Avenue (9/5) – This is a tricky race to handicap because several of the top contenders have one speed figure that really stands out, but you’re unsure if they can replicate that in a big spot. Perhaps nobody is more emblematic of that than the Brendan Walsh trainee who won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) with an astonishing 95 Beyer Speed Figure but then has a forgettable day as your 9/5 favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) where he finished ninth. However, if there was ever a race that deserves a line through it, it was that one. I was on the rail that day at Del Mar and they popped the gates open so quickly after the last horse loaded that I didn’t even have time to get my phone up for a picture and it felt like half the field broke a step slow. Meanwhile, East Avenue drew the rail that day, stumbled out of the gate, and was second to last before you even knew what happened. Walsh has repeatedly said the horse can rate and that he trains in company off his workout partner, so there is a possibility that they use this race as an experiment to see if the horse could sit just off the early pace of American Promise much as trainer Steve Asmussen did with Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby (G1) back in 2022. Tactics aside, jockey Tyler Gaffalione will be aggressive to ensure the horse is forwardly placed whether it is on the lead or stalking the pace. The horse appears to love the distance as it was noted (and Gaffalione confirmed) that it was nearly impossible to pull the horse up on the gallop out after he romped in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). Finally, the horse is bred and owned by Godolphin and his granddam is the dam to 2023 Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish, so there is plenty of pedigree. While Godolphin might not have won a Kentucky Derby yet, they appear to have a very legitimate contender in East Avenue.

#7 Septarian (12/1) – One of the more curious horses in the race, Septarian has had an usual path to the Kentucky Derby Prep season. The horse that shares the same sire as Medina Spirit who crossed the finish line first in the Kentucky Derby (G1) was a $1,700 RNA at the 2023 Keeneland January Sale. He eventually wound up in the barn of trainer Javier Contreras and won in debut in a $26,000 maiden special weight going 4 ½ furlongs at Charles Town. Hardly the stuff of Kentucky Derby contenders. However, Contreras stepped him up to face $62,000 optional claiming company at Laurel Park in his next start and he rolled again as which point there appears to have been a private sale to Resolute Racing and a trainer change to Chad Brown. Based off his first two victories, Brown entered the horse in the Mucho Macho Man where he broke toward the back of the field and made a mild bid to finish third. It was not a bad effort considering the humble beginnings, but there are questions coming out of that race with the most prominent being the quality of the field. The top two finishers (Guns Loaded and Treaty of Rome) came back to run in different Kentucky Derby Prep races and finished a combined 70 lengths behind the respective winners. Yikes. However, Brown seems undeterred with Septarian as he is entering the horse in a tough spot, adding blinkers, and 2024 Eclipse Award Jockey of the Year, Flavien Prat, takes the mount. Brown has not made a career by entering horses in races where they are over their head and have no chance of success, so he clearly sees something with this runner. Expect him to be forward, but he does not need the lead as shown in his first two starts as well as his Mucho Macho Man effort where he was passing horses late. Add in the fact that he is entering the race with consecutive four-furlong bullet works, there is something here at a big price and if any duo can get the most of the horse it is Brown and Prat.

*scratched
#2 Jonathan’s Way (4/1) – One of the most consistent horses in the race in the son of Vekoma for trainer Phil Bauer. While Bauer might not have a national reputation on the Kentucky Derby trail with the public, he has made quite a name for himself with several tremendous fillies and turf horses like Xigera and Buchu. Meanwhile, Jonathan’s Way made one of the more spectacular debuts this past summer at Saratoga where he got pinched back at the start and then made a tremendous sweeping move around the far turn to draw off from the rest of the field in the stretch. He followed that up with a gate-to-wire victory in the Iroquois (G3) before finishing seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). While he got off cleaner than East Avenue did in that race, it was largely a merry-go-round track with the top two running in place, so it is hard to knock that result too much. Unlike many runners that day, he came back less than a month later to race in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) where he finished second to First Resort, but the effort showed that he can at least handle two turns, though I do still have questions. His sire, Vekoma, has gotten off to a tremendous start with his first crop, but I think there are some legitimate issues regarding distance moving forward. At this point, only one of his offspring (Bracket Buster) won, going longer than a mile on the dirt. His offspring’s average winning distance (ADW) is only 6.2 furlongs and while it is true that a first crop sire will have a lower ADW than more established sires, a fellow first-crop sire like McKinzie already has a 7.1-furlong ADW for his offspring. Additionally, the dam for Jonathan’s Way was a dirt sprinter and has largely produced dirt sprinters. All that said, he has not run worse than an 85 Beyer Speed Figure and can sit behind the early speed to get the perfect trip. I have a lot of respect for the horse and connections, but I question whether he will appreciate the nine furlongs.

#3 Vassimo (8/1) – Getting 8/1 on a horse trained by Todd Pletcher and jockeyed by Irad Ortiz Jr. is something I will always be interested in digging into more. The son of Nyquist comes into this race with a perfect 2-2 and won going two turns last time out against $75K optional claiming company at Tampa Bay Downs. The effort came with Lasix, but the horse won in debut going a mile at Gulfstream Park without the assistance of Lasix, so I am not too concerned. Additionally, over the last five years, Pletcher is winning 17% with a $4.69 ROI in three-year-old male dirt route graded stakes races when switching a runner off Lasix. On the track, the horse has a profile I tend to be attracted to in these spots as an ascending horse that has yet to run their best race. He improved his Beyer Speed Figure nine points in his second start and while his 81 Beyer might not be fast enough to win this race, if he moves forward again, then he is right there with the other main contenders. Few jockeys ride as well as Ortiz Jr. and he should sit the perfect tracking trip behind the early speed of American Promise and East Avenue to ensure he gets first crack at the leaders coming for home. He is out of a out of a productive graded stakes-winning dam who won dirt routing. I really like the pair of workouts he put in leading up to the race and there is not a trainer in the country more adept at getting horses to stretch out than Pletcher.