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Pace Scenario

Late this week, the pace dynamic changed dramatically as Todd Pletcher announced that #8 Vibe (9-5) would scratch out of the race to run in next week\u2019s Met Mile (G1), taking place at Saratoga during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. With Vibe out of the race, there is absolutely no early speed signed on, and it becomes a jockey\u2019s race and one where you could potentially steal a graded stakes race on the front end. Of the remaining horses, #4 Hall of Fame (6-1) appears to have the best early speed and is most likely to get to the front. He is unproven off Lasix, but the race sets up well for him. With so many top contenders being closers, it feels as if someone will have to change tactics to get to the winner\u2019s circle.

Analysis

#4 Hall of Fame is a horse that I have found impossible to trust when running off Lasix, as he is 0-7 winning in races in which he does not get Lasix, while he is 4-5 winning in races where he does receive it, including the 2025 Mineshaft (G3). That said, with the scratch of Vibe, he might very well inherit the lead, and he does have some things going for him as a horse that could be an honest price come post time. First, he has enough natural speed to put himself up front during the early going without having to massively change tactics or make the horse do something he does not traditionally do. Jockey Jose Ortiz should be aggressive, knowing there is no other speed signed up, and have him setting the pace as the son of Gun Runner could get brave up front if unpressured. Another reason for optimism is that he is second back from a lengthy layoff, as he did not run for 10 months between July 2025 and May 2026. He got off toward the back of the field in his comeback race in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) and never made much of an impact against a salty group. Now he stretches out, and while he should theoretically appreciate more ground, I believe he is best at a mile or 1 1/16 miles. Still, getting nine furlongs while setting a soft pace is a possibility, and he should be a fair price. He will need to move forward from his last effort, but if he can ever replicate his triple-digit BSF from his Lasix races at Fair Grounds, then he is a legitimate force in this division.

It is hard for me to trust many other horses in this race closing on a race without pace, but #3 Hit Show has become one of the more accomplished horses in racing. The son of Candy Ride has amassed nearly $10 million in winnings on the track, highlighted by his 2025 victory in the Dubai World Cup (G1). However, he can be a bit hit-or-miss, with 12 wins in 25 starts but only three finishes of second or third, meaning he either wins or misses the board. He was a dull fifth in last year\u2019s first race coming back from the Middle East, but that was in a much tougher spot in the Stephen Foster (G1) against the likes of Mindframe and Sierra Leone. Nobody of that caliber is in this year\u2019s field, and Cox has gone through the Middle Eastern shipping process with him again, which means he may have learned what will work best for this horse coming back from international travel. Despite the fact that he comes from off the pace, his effort two back in the Mineshaft (G2) demonstrates he still has enough speed to at least stay in touch with the leaders, as he was sitting two lengths off the pace during most of his trip prior to making his winning move. He is a grinder/plodder who does not have dazzling late speed but appreciates distance and might be able to run down a horse like Vibe, who is trying two turns for the first time. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has ridden him to victory before, and while he did not run well in Dubai this year, his previous starts showed an older horse finding his best form.

Finally, a horse that has a similar profile to Vibe intrigues me in the form of #6 Original Sin. He is also lightly raced, with only seven career starts to his name, and switched barns early in his career. The current Brendan Walsh trainee can sometimes be his own worst enemy, as he is accustomed to poor starts that put him helplessly out of a race. However, when he gets away in decent order, he can sit a mid-pack trip and utilize a strong late turn of foot to track down his foes as he did last time out, besting N2X competition at Keeneland going Saturday\u2019s 1 1/8-mile distance. His pedigree speaks for itself as he is sired by Curlin and is out of an Unbridled\u2019s Song mare who produced the Japanese runner Pingxiang, who was a 17-time winner and earned nearly $1 million. Original Sin\u2019s last race, where he was assigned a 97 BSF, certainly fits with this field, but he would have to replicate that while switching off Lasix and facing stakes competition for the first time. Unlike with Vibe, who has never raced without Lasix, we have a small sample size with Original Sin, who was 0-2 starting his career without Lasix while in the Brad Cox barn. Still, it\u2019s hard to judge those efforts too harshly, as that was in the fall of his juvenile year, and he has clearly matured into a better horse since those races. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione must get him out of the gate cleanly and ideally keep him without shouting distance of the leaders to ensure he can have the time to run them down in the stretch. He is not a horse I\u2019m interested in using as a win contender, but could be intriguing to use underneath at a price. Just don\u2019t eat from the Tree of Longshots.

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