MUST BET RACE OF THE WEEK

SATURDAY, APRIL 13

Pace: The pace scenario on Saturday in the Apple Blossom is fascinating because it could go a few different ways, but there are a couple of key players to consider. Morning line favorite #4 Adare Manor (9/5) might not need the lead to win, but six of her seven career victories have been in gate-to-wire fashion with the lone exception being a time when she stalked the pace from second. However, she might not be the quickest in this field. Both #1 Free Like a Girl (20/1) and #5 Flying Connection (20/1) have both shown strong early speed and a desire to go to the front. Several others in the field will want to be close as #9 Shotgun Hottie (12/1) will likely use some early speed to clear over toward the rail and save ground while #7 Honor D Lady (7/2) and #6 Misty Veil (12/1) will set up shop tracking within a couple lengths of the leaders. The fact there should be an honest-to-fast pace certainly will give closers like #2 Taxed (5/1) and #3 Wet Paint (3/1) a legitimate chance to close on a track that is typically kind to horses coming from off the pace.

#4 Adare Manor (9/5) – One of the things that separates the Bob Baffert trained daughter of Uncle Mo is her consistent class against top older competition. She is the only horse in the field with a Grade 1 win over older horses (Wet Paint has a Grade 1 over 3-year-olds) and she’s run against Grade 1 or Grade 2 competition in her last six races with four wins. She is coming off a runner-up finish in the Beholder Mile (G1), but I viewed that effort as a positive. The winner, Sweet Azteca, took them gate-to-wire and Adare Manor was the only horse in the field who was making up ground and passing her competitors. Those were good things to see in her first race since the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) where she finished seventh but was only three lengths back from the winner. As mentioned in the pace scenario, she has typically done her winning on the lead, so seeing her pass horses and close in on the leader was an encouraging development. She also earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure (102) for that performance but could continue to move forward. It is not uncommon for mares to get better when they hit five-years-old and with her back class and prior form she certainly looks formidable in this spot. Baffert is not known for bringing his fillies and mares into Oaklawn Park, though he has done it on rare occasions in recent years. Not surprisingly, he has had success in those limited opportunities and the fact he is shipping her for a Grade 1 test likely speaks to his level of confidence. Regarding the race, she has good early speed, but might have to sit second or third in the early going, which should not be a deterrent. She is 3-5 winning at today’s distance and owns a Grade 2 victory going nine furlongs, so stamina should not be an issue, particularly in her second race back from the layoff.

#9 Shotgun Hottie (12/1) – I have been a big fan of this horse for a couple of years and it appears that she might finally be getting back to the form she has displayed at times in the past. The 2023 Molly Pitcher (G3) winner seemed to find a home with trainer Cherie DeVaux last year as she rounded into great form last summer at Monmouth Park taking a pair of stakes races. However, something was amiss after the Molly Pitcher (G3) victory as she headed to the bench for over six months before coming back in the Bayakoa (G3) in February. She clearly needed that race as she faded late but came back with an improved effort in the Azeri (G2) last time out. She is now third back in the form cycle and should be ready to put forth her best effort. Her races last summer at Monmouth Park are good enough to win this race and in a field where so many of the horses have been running around the same Beyer Speed Figure, she has a couple of races to run back to that are better than nearly everyone except the favorite. She has great tactical speed and expect jockey Paco Lopez to be aggressive from the outside post position to ensure he gets her over toward the rail to save ground going into the first turn. Also, it might not be coincidence that her best two efforts came with Lopez aboard and she got those wins in different ways as one was gate-to-wire while the other was from off the pace. Expect her to be tracking from no worse than third or fourth in the early going and should be in play at the top the stretch as a nice value for bettors.

#7 Honor D Lady (7/2) – I could easily have put #3 Wet Paint (3/1) or #2 Taxed (5/1) in this spot as both horses stand a good chance to hit a part of vertical wagers with their late-running style. However, I have just enough questions about both. With Wet Paint I’m concerned with how she fires off the bench and whether she’s the same filly we saw last year sweep through the Oaks prep races at Oaklawn Park. With Taxed, she only has one race fast enough to compete against this group, though I am higher on her chances at a better price. Ultimately, I went with a two-time Grade 3 winner for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. I can sometimes be skeptical about how well Saffie’s horses run outside of Florida, but at least we have seen this daughter of Honor Code take her form on the road by winning last year’s Remington Park Oaks (G3) and then running respectably against Raging Sea and Julia Shining in the Comely (G3) at Aqueduct. She is fresh off a win in the Royal Delta (G3) where she earned her career-best Beyer Speed Figure (94). She is still relatively new to dirt having only raced on the surface four times and has continued improving each time out. She has very good tactical speed and should sit an ideal tracking trip, which has produced 54% of winners going over a mile at Oaklawn Park this meet when the track is rated fast. Very strong workouts leading up to this race and could be a horse that easily springs the upset over the favorite as she might not yet have run her best race.

#6 Misty Veil (12/1) – The hard-knocking daughter of Tonalist is one of the more honest horses you will come across in this division but might be a bit out of her depths against Grade 1 competition. However, she is 24-36 hitting the board and has shown improved form in her last four races. She is coming off back-to-back graded stakes-placed efforts in the Bayakoa (G3) and Azeri (G2) and clearly runs her best at Oaklawn Park where she is 9-10 in the money. Like Honor D Lady and Shotgun Hottie, she possesses good tactical speed and should be traveling within a few lengths of the early pace and no worse than a mid-pack trip. She does appear to do her best running when she is a little closer to the pace, so jockey Ramon Vazquez might ask her for more early to avoid sitting sixth or seventh going into the first turn. From a perspective of Beyer Speed Figures, she is just as fast as either Wet Paint or Taxed, while providing significantly better value to use in your trifecta or superfecta bets. This will be her first Grade 1 attempt, but it is promising that she hit the board in those last two graded stakes races at 20/1 and 16/1, so she has no problem outrunning her odds against more elite company.

Strategy: The question in this race is what to do with Adare Manor. If you like her then you probably need to single her or go no more than two deep. If you are willing to go past her then the field really opens up and becomes a race where you can spread four or five deep as there is not significant variation among many of the other top contenders. Looking over the rest of the Late Pick 5 at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, I think a fair number of people might single Skelly in Race 8, but that’s a horse coming back from the Middle East, which can sometimes be a reason to fade as they need a race or two before they are fully acclimated. There is a strong favorite in the finale, Race 12, with a Steve Asmussen class dropper, but the final race at Oaklawn usually leads to chaos. As for the Apple Blossom, I do believe longshots like Misty Veil and Shotgun Hottie are sitting on big efforts and perhaps splitting the difference on a ticket with using the favorite and two longshots, particularly if you are singling in another leg, might not be a bad way to go. Your overall ticket price would be affordable, but you would have some coverage in this spot. As always, trust and leverage your own opinions, but be careful to avoid the common pitfall of including a horse just because you’re afraid they might beat you.