Alabama (G1) Picks

Pace Scenario

Unless someone decides to do something out of character, which is always a possibility at Saratoga, it would seem obvious that #6 Counting Stars (1-2) winds up on the lead by herself, as there is no other significant early speed signed up for the race. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has been aggressive with this Mark Casse trainee since taking over the mount, and Counting Stars is coming off a gate-to-wire victory in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). The fillies with the next best speed would be #4 My Gun’s Loaded (3-1) and #5 A.P.’s Girl (10-1), but neither of them sat better than fifth at first call in their last three races. I would imagine My Gun’s Loaded is the one who will be closest, as her jockey Manny Franco has been riding beautifully of late, and part of that has been that he’s been aggressive out of the gate.

Analysis

#6 Counting Stars (1-2) is well on her way to being the Champion Three-Year-Old filly after avenging her loss in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) to Always a Runner by subsequently besting her in the Acorn (G1) and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). In fact, Always a Runner’s trainer, Chad Brown, has opted not to face Counting Stars again and points his filly to September’s Cotillion (G1) at Parx. As a result, the field that has shown up for Alabama (G1) might lack a legitimate threat to the favorite, but I’m not sure it would matter even if Always a Runner had shown up. Counting Stars, who is the spitting image of her sire Honor A.P., has put her inconsistency behind her and has shown nothing but improved form the last several races. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. took over the mount after her third-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), a race in which she never got clear running until late while the top two finishers got the jump on her turning for home. Since Ortiz Jr. got in the irons, we have seen her strategically placed in both the Acorn (G1) and CCAO (G1) as she was deliberately kept wide to stay out of trouble in the former and put on the lead in a race with minimal pace in the latter. She is again lone speed, and while you might argue there was a speed bias and she traveled the best path of the track in her CCAO (G1) victory, that seems academic. Trainer Mark Casse has done a great job managing this filly, and while she might not be as good as his superstar four-year-old filly, Nitrogen, she does appear to have one thing in common with the Whitney (G1) runner-up, which is that she loves Saratoga. The fact that Counting Stars finished up the CCAO as strongly as she did going nine furlongs would seem to indicate that she can easily get the 1 ¼ mile distance. The rest of the field is made up of closers and mid-pack runners that are unlikely to put the necessary pressure on her early to challenge her late.

Amazingly, Mark Casse’s other runner #3 Measure (6-1) might be the second-best runner after her third-place finish in the CCAO (G1). The daughter of Essential Quality would seem to LOVE the added distance from last time out, as her sire has a 7.5-furlong Average Winning Distance for his progeny, which is well above average. Plus, her half-sibling Bob and Jackie was a graded stakes winner going nine furlongs, so you have distance influence on both sides of her family. Her biggest impediment is that she lacks early speed, but she has a strong late kick combined with her stamina. Jockey Flavien Prat takes the mount, and the fact she has moved forward in each of her last three starts is positive. Plus, she answered the question of whether she can run off Lasix in her last race, so I believe she has every opportunity to keep improving with added distance and a more consolidated field, as she will not be too hopelessly out of it early. One thing to consider in 1 ¼ mile races, for both sexes, is that 99% of horses are not bred and have little desire to run that distance at an elite level. When you find a horse that can, even if she is not fast enough on the figures, she is the type of horse that is going to get stronger and pass runners who are staggering home after dropping anchor at the eighth pole.

I really like #4 My Gun’s Loaded (3-1), but trainer Chad Brown is only 2-30 (7%) switching horses off Lasix in Grade 1 routes over the last five years. Additionally, she is likely to be the second shortest price on the board, so I’d rather swing with a bigger price. #5 A.P.’s Girl (12-1) feels like a price that could run into trifectas as she is coming off three straight stakes-placed finishes, including a third-place effort in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) where she lost to My Miss Mo, who came back to win the Monmouth Oaks (G3) with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure. Certainly, A.P.’s Girl is going to have to get faster on her figures as her career-best is only an 80, but it’s encouraging to see how other horses have improved coming out of those races. She is fresh, having not run since early June, and has been training well for trainer Peter Eurton down at Ellis Park. She shares the same sire as Counting Stars and is the half-sibling to graded stakes winner Fort Bragg, who excelled around one turn. By default, she might be the third fastest horse during the early stages of the race, which should keep her engaged in the flow of the race. She lacks much of a late kick, but she is the sort of horse with even early and late figures that traditionally excels at longer distances. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione takes over the mount and should ensure she sits the right trip and could get a good run at the leaders turning for home and could capitalize if one of the favorites does not fire.