Rebel Stakes (G2) Picks

Pace Scenario

While there are several runners with good early speed, all of them have shown the ability to rate off the pace. However, given his post position, I would imagine #10 Solider N Diplomat (12-1) is going to take the initiative and try to clear the field or at least get into a stalking position in the two-path going into the first turn. Horses such as #2 Litmus Test (7-2), #3 Class President (10-1), and #4 Blackout Time (8-5) will be showing good speed from the inside and will look to establish forward positions either on the lead, stalking, or sitting in the pocket. Expect an honest pace, but I do not expect the sort of blistering fractions we saw in last year’s Arkansas Derby (G1) when two “need the lead” horses set nuclear fractions. Oaklawn Park’s track plays fairly to all running styles, which means the Southwest (G3) winner #7 Silent Tactic (9-2) should be able to make a run from the back again.

Analysis

The Rebel (G2) is an intriguing race as this is a talented group, but I believe you can make a case against the top contenders, which led me to #3 Class President (10-1) for trainer Todd Pletcher. The son of Uncle Mo is out of a stakes-winning Quality Road mare (Top Quality) who has already produced two stakes-placed runners (Keepsake and American Speed). What catches my eye with Class President is the route he has taken to get to the Rebel (G2) for a trainer who is as good as there is at getting horses to the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby (G1). The horse debuted going a mile at Gulfstream Park and won easily over Easterly, who came back to win his next start. Then something curious happened: Pletcher cut the horse back to seven furlongs to run in the Swale Stakes. Over the last five years, the Hall of Fame trainer has only cut a debut maiden winner back from route to sprint in their second start one other time (Miz Sense in 2023). The unusual move, combined with the running lines of another Pletcher runner this weekend in the Fountain of Youth (G2), Jackson Hole, makes me realize that Pletcher used the Swale as the equivalent of a first-level allowance to get the horse more conditioning. Sprinting seven furlongs against a horse like Solitude Dude is not Class President’s game, but stretching out to two turns in a race where he should sit an inside pocket trip sets up perfectly for him. He now has that additional foundation, unlike horses such as Chief Wallabee and The Puma, who landed in the deep end of the pool after impressive maiden efforts. Fellow Hall of Famer, John Velazquez, is in town for the ride, and I believe the horse can continue to move forward from his last out 88 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF). He has ample speed to be in a good position early and should have no issues with the distance. I believe he presents great value at his 10-1 morning line price, and I would even still have interest at half that price.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert might be synonymous with California, but he has won the Rebel (G2) a record eight times, most notably with American Pharoah. This year, he brings #2 Litmus Test (7-2), who will be breaking from the inside rail due to the scratch of #1 Bravaro (8-1), who will opt to stay in Florida and run in the Fountain of Youth. Let’s get one thing out of the way up front. You’re not going to get 7-2 on this horse, and I believe he will go off as a 2-1 favorite (or lower). He is coming in off consecutive 95+ BSF efforts, mostly recently in his victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). While he has not run since December, he was slated to run in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park earlier this month, but flight delays caused his stablemate Buetane, who was cross-entered in the Holy Bull (G3) and Southwest (G3), to scratch from the race in Florida and end up running in the Southwest (G3), which kept Litmus Test at home. On the track, Litmus Test is not your typical Baffert horse as he can rate off the pace, but one of my concerns about him is that his rider must work a little bit to get him by runners. While he rated in his debut at Del Mar, he did not pull away from the runner-up that day (Falcon Jet), who has yet to break his maiden in three subsequent attempts. In his next three starts, he never showed the ability to pass horses as he either ran in place or got to the lead and faded as he did against Blackout Time and Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. The long homestretch at Los Alamitos proved to be his friend last time out as he grinded past stablemate Provenance and held off his other stablemate Blacksmith, who finally broke his maiden last weekend. Now he ships across the country for the second time in his career, and he is certainly a logical win candidate based on his speed figures and back class. He should sit a good trip just behind the early speed for jockey Flavien Prat and might even take the initiative to go to the front. But he has yet to show he can win at this level against a field of this caliber. Finally, despite all his previous success, over the last five years, Baffert is only 3-29 (10%) in three-year-old dirt route graded stakes races outside of California. Beware of short-priced shippers.

I have been a bit hard on #10 Soldier N Diplomat (12-1) as he has yet to live up to his $950,000 price tag from when he was purchased as the OBS March last year. You do not typically see horses sired by Army Mule go for that much money, and while his debut at Saratoga was a winning one, he did not jump off the screen when you watched his races. He eventually added another win in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs, going a mile, but has not broken through in a stakes race in three tries. However, I do feel like he ran a good race last time out in the Southwest (G3) and stayed on well while Silent Tactic blew by everyone for the win. On Sunday, I expect jockey Jose Ortiz to be extremely aggressive from the outside post, shoot to the lead, and put this horse in the right position early. Remember last year, Ortiz came to Oaklawn and overcame a wide post to win the Honeybee (G3) with Quietside, so he knows the blueprint for how to steal this up front. He had no chance of avoiding a wide trip last time, as there was significantly more early speed signed on, but this time, he has a chance to clear most of the field. Soldier N Diplomat feels a bit like Chip Honcho, who kept running roughly the same speed figure in all his races and then broke through with a big runner-up performance in the Risen Star (G2). Could this one do the same? I think so.

Finally, we need to discuss #4 Blackout Time (8-5). Much like Napoleon Solo in the Fountain of Youth (G2), we have not seen this horse in nearly 150 days since running in a key juvenile race the first weekend of October. He was second best to Ted Noffey that day at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) but acquitted himself well. Trainer Kenny McPeek was clearly high on the horse as he brought him out to Del Mar for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), but the horse was scratched by the track vets that week. The fact that McPeek brings him back here speaks to his confidence and how the horse is training off five recorded morning workouts since late January, but 8-5 is way too short a price to swallow on a horse that only has a maiden victory against this field. Even if he floats up to 7-2, I’m still wary of this runner. I am notoriously on the wrong side of McPeek horses as they fire a huge race when I fade them and finish up the track when I play them. Over the last five years, McPeek is 1-7 (14%) in graded stakes races with his male horses coming off 120-180-day layoffs. I am tentatively against this horse, but can’t wait to get my eyes on him in the paddock and during the post parade.