Bet the Belmont Stakes

BELMONT STAKES BETTING TRENDS

To get you ready for the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga (G1), NYRA Bets handicapper Matthew DeSantis went back to 2013 and looked at betting trends that can help you score big in the final leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown.

WHY USE 2013 AS A STARTING POINT?

The Road to the Kentucky Derby started in 2013, which assigned points for order finish in major prep races. The adoption of the point system had some impact on the way horses were campaigned for the Kentucky Derby (G1) and therefore had a trickle-down effect on the other legs of the Triple Crown. Using 2013 as a starting point allows us to have some trend data without too much variation in circumstances between eras.

HOW DOES THE POST TIME FAVORITE DO?

Pretty solid. Favorites have won at a 38.5% clip since 2013, which includes Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify. Additionally, post time favorites have finished in the money at an 85% rate and rarely run bad races. Obviously, this is a much higher win percentage than you see from favorites in the Kentucky Derby (G1) for a variety of reasons. First, you have a significantly smaller field rather than the 20-horse calvary charge that takes place on the First Saturday in May. Secondly, by the time we get to the third leg of the Triple Crown, the cream has risen to the top and it becomes more obvious to bettors who are the top three-year-old in their crop whereas in the Kentucky Derby there are still a significant number of questions surrounding even the best horses.

HOW DO OTHER TOP CONDENDERS DO?

Outside of favorites, the second and third betting choices do not make as much of an impact as you might expect with only two second choices winning and zero third choices winning during the last 13 years. Moreover, they do not even fire at a high rate as the second choice hit the board at a 46% clip and the third choice only hit the board at a 23% rate, which is well below expectations given field size. From a betting standpoint, you would be wise to use the post time favorite in all your vertical wagers but find some prices beyond the top choice.

This year’s race will be particularly fascinating given that you will have several strong contenders with Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Golden Tempo and runner-up Renegade as your top two choices, however, this year’s Kentucky Derby featured a race where the pace fell apart and those two horses took advantage of those dynamics. Horses such as Chief Wallabee, Commandment, and Emerging Market all sat closer to the pace and could benefit from the smaller field and less pace than they saw in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Therefore, this year’s field seems as if it will feature several horses that are below 8/1 on the morning line whereas last year’s race was dominated by Sovereignty and Journalism.

HOW ABOUT LONGSHOTS?

Like the Preakness Stakes (G1), massive longshots are less likely due to smaller field size compared to the Kentucky Derby (G1). The Belmont Stakes have been relatively kind to modest longshots over the last 13 years as 31% of races have been won by horses at odds of 10/1 or higher, but they only comprise around 26% of the horses in the trifecta during that same stretch. Another fascinating trend is that the last four years have gotten significantly chalkier than the previous eight years with more 9/1 and lower horses making up the winning trifecta. Big longshots that are 20/1 or higher have not won during this stretch and are only 10% of the winning trifecta, so using huge prices underneath is not necessarily a winning strategy.

HOW TO BET LONGSHOTS?

Overall, you can feel comfortable taking shots against top choices as horses with double-digit odds have won 31% of the Belmont Stakes races over the last 13 years and those 10/1 to 19/1 runners are likely, relative to their odds, to hit the trifecta. However, using big prices is not a winning strategy from a better’s perspective and this year’s race could be a great example. Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo and runner-up Renegade are likely to vie for betting favoritism with a horse like Chief Wallabee being the “wise guy” third choice. Beyond those runners, horses such as Emerging Market and Commandment will be solid prices in the 6/1 to 10/1 ranges. However, when you get to longer shots such as Ottinho, he would seem to only be worth a bet deeper underneath in superfectas.

HOW DO DIFFERENT RUNNING STYLES PERFORM?

One of the big changes with the Belmont Stakes (G1) taking place at Saratoga is that the race will take place at 1 ¼ miles rather than the traditional 1 ½ distance. Obviously, that could change the nature of winning running styles, as we saw Dornoch basically go gate-to-wire in 2024 and last year Sovereignty sat much closer to the pace than had been his traditional running style. Generally, the race has been won by those tracking the pace (62%) and 53% of the trifecta during that stretch were also comprised of horses tracking the pace. People have often, incorrectly, said horses closing from off the pace will do better at a longer distance, but we have not seen that running style translate to success in the Belmont Stakes (G1). The reason is the pace is typically not fast enough to be conducive to deep closers, which is particularly important for this year as top choices such as Golden Tempo and Renegade will be coming from the back of the field.

For the 2026 renewal of the Belmont Stakes we are likely to see a showdown between the top two finishers in the Kentucky Derby in the form of Golden Tempo and Renegade. Can the pair of deep closers pull off a 1-2 finish again? They will see some familiar faces from the Kentucky Derby such as Commandment, Chief Wallabee, and Emerging Market. All three of those runners could benefit from different pace dynamics in the Belmont Stakes.

Tune back to the HQ page once the full field is drawn and the morning line is out to determine best bets and value plays in the third jewel of horse racing's Triple Crown as the Belmont Stakes will be hosted at historic Saratoga Racecourse for the final time!