Preakness Stakes (G1) Picks

Pace Scenario

Speed, speed, and more speed is the best way to describe this year’s Preakness Stakes (G1). Well over half the field of 14 runners like to be up front, which should press some daunting early fractions and set things up for horses coming from off the pace. Starting from the inside, #1 Taj Mahal (5-1) will have to go from his inside rail position and possesses excellent early speed, having wired the last two fields he faced. Horses such as #3 Crupper (30-1) and #4 Robusta (30-1) have good early speed and have won up front before, but might not be fast enough to get there on Saturday. Meanwhile, the quartet of #6 Chip Honcho (5-1), #10 Napoleon Solo (8-1), #11 Corona de Oro (30-1), and #14 Pretty Boy Miah (15-1) all have exceptional early speed and plenty of reason to show it breaking from further outside post positions. Napoleon Solo feels like the speed of the speed and could try to do what he did in last year’s Champagne (G1). The pace certainly sets up for a closer or mid-pack horse, and while they will be using the first finish line at Laurel Park, there should still be enough distance in the homestretch for those closers to unleash their late kick.

Analysis

There is a great debate over whether the Triple Crown spacing is still relevant in horse racing, given how we breed and campaign top three-year-old runners. I will reference the 2000s cult comedy Road Trip when a band of misfits is taking a shortcut to get to their destination, when one of them looks at the other and says, “That looks difficult,” to which his friend retorts, “Of course it’s difficult. If it were easy, it would just be called ‘the way’!” Setting the debates aside, I absolutely love a horse coming out of the Kentucky Derby (G1) in the form of #12 Incredibolt (5-1). The winner of the Virginia Derby ran a respectable sixth in the Run for the Roses while sitting a little ahead of some of the deep closers who dominated the trifecta that day. There are two primary reasons I love trainer Riley Mott’s horse in this spot. The first is the pace, which should set up perfectly for Incredibolt as he is a mid-pack runner who displayed good tracking speed in his Virginia Derby victory. He should sit behind the early speed and have the field come back to him while also using a nice late kick he displayed at Colonial Downs in his 2026 stakes victory. The other reason I like him is because of the way Riley Mott campaigned him. The Virginia Derby falls at an odd time on the calendar, as it is seven weeks before the Kentucky Derby (G1). That often puts trainers in a tough spot about whether to run back one more time before the big race or simply train up to the First Saturday in May. Mott opted for the latter, and while Incredibolt was fresh and looked terrific bouncing around the track in the morning, there is reason to believe he will be even better wheeling back on two weeks’ rest, as he should still be fresh and could move forward off the spacing of his races. If you are willing to cross a line through his Holy Bull (G3), which was a befuddling bad effort where he simply didn’t get over the track, he has moved forward in each career start. The caliber of competition he bested in the Virginia Derby might be a question mark, but remember that he beat Ocelli, who came back to run back-to-back thirds in the Wood Memorial (G2) and Kentucky Derby (G1). The elder Mott might skip the Preakness, but Riley could get his first Triple Crown victory on Saturday.

If there is one horse on the frontend that scares me to wire the field, it is #10 Napoleon Solo (8-1). He is the lone Grade 1 winner in the field, having taken last year’s Champagne (G1) in gate-to-wire fashion. He had a long layoff prior to starting his 2026 campaign and didn’t get the best trip in the Fountain of Youth, and then missed his final workout leading up to the Wood Memorial (G2), where he clearly was just a little short. He comes into Laurel Park fresh for trainer Chad Summers, who said he is giving the horse one more chance around two turns, and it seems warranted by the way the horse is working out. I was critical of the way the horse was handled after his Champagne (G1) victory, but I’m pleased to see him running back regularly this season as he will be third back in the form cycle and should be sitting on his best effort. What enticed me from his Wood Memorial (G2) effort was that, despite missing his final work, he showed his customary early speed and battled on in the stretch. While the race came back slow, it is encouraging that the third-place finisher, Ocelli, came back to run a 94 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) in the Kentucky Derby, and sixth-place finisher Talk to Me Jimmy came back to run a 91 BSF in his runner-up finish in last weekend’s Peter Pan (G3). I believe the son of Liam’s Map is the speed of the speed and could just take them all the way with his improved stamina and fitness. I love the six-furlong workouts leading up to the race and the horse's regular work schedule. Sometimes it’s as easy as picking a Grade 1 winner to win a Grade 1 race.

The horse that I have probably “cooled” on the most since the draw is morning line favorite #9 Iron Honor (9-2) for trainer Chad Brown. There is plenty to like in the son of Nyquist, who started his career with two impressive victories, breaking his maiden in debut with a 95 BSF before winning the Gotham (G3) in only his second career start. Things went a little sideways in the Wood Memorial (G2), where he drew wide and was severely bumped going into the first turn, which screwed up his action, and despite that, he kept on running well through the stretch. Despite qualifying for the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby with his victory in the Gotham (G3), Brown opted to skip Churchill Downs to target the Preakness (G1), which is exactly what he did with Early Voting a few years ago, who went on to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown. On the track, Iron Honor has good early speed, but he is getting the blinkers off for this race, which should help him relax a bit and sit just behind the leaders. Theoretically, this is a good move considering the way the race shapes up, but it is an uncommon move for Brown to tinker with equipment prior to a big race, as he is 0-5 switching blinkers off in graded stakes races over the last five years. The potentially bigger consideration is the distance. While I love Nyquist as a sire, I believe his offspring are best at a mile and can run well at nine furlongs depending on the female family. Iron Honor is out of a Blame mare, which is a huge plus on the pedigree, but the reality is that he has gotten slower in every start since breaking his maiden. He will need to sit a different type of trip than he has in the past, as he will be behind several horses, not just one or two, while having a new equipment dynamic, trying to bounce back from a subpar effort, and going a new distance. He could easily check all the boxes and win the race, but I do not like his morning-line price or the price you are likely to get on him come post time. I do believe he will be in the mix turning for home, and I have more confidence in Brown than anyone else in this field to get his horse ready in this spot, as his runners have been incredibly live winning stakes races at a 27% clip over the last two months.

I might be going against the grain, but I just do not care for #2 Ocelli (6-1) or #6 Chip Honcho (5-1) in this spot. I could be dead wrong about both, but to me, Ocelli is going to be a tired horse coming into the Preakness as this will be his fourth race in nine weeks, having run in the Virginia Derby, Wood Memorial (G2), Kentucky Derby (G1), and now Preakness Stakes (G1). Mind you, he is still a maiden…so there is that too. As for Chip Honcho, his best efforts have come when he is sitting alone on the lead, and I believe he is distance-limited. He was 2+ lengths clear of the field in his maiden victory and his game runner-up effort in the Risen Star (G2), where he bested eventual Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Golden Tempo. The problem is he won’t sit anywhere near that trip on Saturday, as there is going to be a load of speed breathing down his neck. Plus, I was not impressed by him during morning workouts and training leading up to the Kentucky Derby. This is a long way of me saying that I’m taking a swing with #5 Talkin (20-1) for trainer Danny Gargan as a deeper underneath play. The son of Good Magic cost $600,000, so there are clearly still expectations, and he was impressive in his debut, winning over a field that included eventual Grade 1 winner Further Ado. However, that is his lone victory as he chased the lone speed of Napoleon Solo in the Champagne (G1), threw in a clunker in the Remsen (G2), was knocking off the rust off the bench in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) before finishing a distant third in the Blue Grass (G1). Despite all that, he has repeatedly taken steps forward if you draw a line through his Remsen (G2) and fits a very similar profile to Incredibolt. He is also a horse that should get the perfect trip as he has good natural early speed but prefers to track a few lengths off the pace and gets top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons. He is working out well leading up to this race and could be sitting on a career effort at just the right time.