Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) Picks

Pace Scenario

You can expect #8 Cabo Spirit (8/1) to be the main speed of the race and should be left alone up front, which is dangerous considering he just recently wired the field in the San Gabriel (G3) going this distance with jockey Mike Smith aboard. However, several other horses like to sit close to the pace, such as #4 One Stripe (12/1) and #11 Astronomer (15/1), so while I believe Cabo Spirit will settle nicely up front, I do not think he will clear by four or five lengths down the backstretch. Gulfstream Park’s turf course tends to play fairly to early speed and deep closers, but I’m not expecting a wicked pace, which could favor horses in the upper half of the field. The jockeys for #1 Test Score (8/1), #2 Program Trading (5/2), and #7 Major Dude (8/1) will have to make some split-second decisions once the gates pop as all three horses have, at times, shown the ability to stay close to the pace or come from further back. The horse that gets first run on the leaders might be the one with the advantage.

Analysis

I am hesitant to support morning line favorite Program Trading who has not won in his three starts since returning from a 14-month layoff, though he has some legitimate excuses in some of those efforts. I’m also not sure how to handle several of the California-based runners coming east as I typically fade West Coast turf horses when they travel east. That said, Cabo Spirit is scary up front, and I’ll be talking about him a little further down. Ultimately, I’m taking a big swing with a horse that I feel can that is getting reacquainted with his former jockey and that’s #4 One Stripe (12/1) for trainer Graham Motion. The South African horse recent came over to North American and was aggressively placed against Grade 1 competition in his first two starts in the Woodbine Mile (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). He did not make an impact in either race, but I also believe he was not running his preferred trip in either being forced to close from the back in the Woodbine Mile (G1) while setting the fractions in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). Motion kept him in training after the Breeders’ Cup and spotted him against allowance company where he easily bested a field while sitting a mid-pack trip and scoring a victory over three previous stakes winners. The fact Graham, who also has #1 Test Score (8/1) entered in this race, feels fit to run him here speaks to his confidence and how the horse has been working out leading up to Saturday. There is also the not-so-small matter of former jockey from South Africa, Gavin Lerena, coming over to ride him this weekend. The two had been nearly an unstoppable team in South Africa winning four graded stakes races together, including two Grade 1 races. I believe the lightbulb finally came on and the horse is acclimated to racing in North America and should sit an ideal trip behind a modest pace. He is a huge price, but I think you want to search for one of those in this field.

There are a few trainers who I just implicitly trust to get a horse race for a big race and among the top of those, particularly on the turf, is Shug McGaughey. I don’t care of he is currently 0-17 at the Championship Meet, when I see one of his horses entered in a big race, I always take them seriously, which is why I like #10 Cugino (7/2) despite his outside post position. There is no doubt that Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez is going to have to work out a ride from a further outside post position, but the horse has been the model of consistency finishing in the top two in 11 of 14 career starts with six victories. He is 4-4 in the top two on the turf at Gulfstream Park and 3-3 in the top two going Saturday’s nine-furlong distance. What gives me confidence that he will continue his form is his versatility as he showed last time that he can sit close to the pace or come from well back depending on several factors. Velazquez will likely try and use some speed, particularly as he draws outside of Cabo Spirit who will make a quick sprint to the front. Velazquez can follow him and move toward the rail to save ground going into the first turn and give Cugino a tracking trip. The five-year-old son of Twirling Candy has been working well for McGaughey and was assigned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) in his last race. He has won four of his last six races, though he has yet to capture a Grade 1. In a field where there are several horses that require projection, Cugino takes away a lot of the guess work as a solid and dependable type of include in both vertical and horizontal wagers.

The old man might just be able to wire the field. No, I’m not talking about the 60-year-old Hall of Famer Mike Smith, but rather the horse he is riding on Saturday as seven-year-old #8 Cabo Spirit (8/1) showed he still had plenty left in the tank last time when he wired the field in the San Gabriel (G3). Smith and Cabo Spirit are a good team having teamed up six times and finished in the money all six times with two graded stakes victories. Trainer George Papaprodromou has done a great job managing this horse who rarely runs a bad race when he gets up on the lead. Due to the complete lack of speed signed on for Saturday, Smith will be licking his chops to control the pace early and throughout. I mentioned earlier that I will sometimes fade West Coast turf horses when they come to the East Coast, but one thing that translates wherever you run is speed. The son of Pioneerof the Nile has rarely left the friendly confines of California and while he has not had success in those rare ventures outside of The Golden State, you can make legitimate excuses due to surface, track condition, or class level. This feels like a spot where he could surprise should the competition let Smith and Cabo Spirit dictate the pace. He has shown he can get the nine furlongs, and I believe the pace scenario on Saturday should allow him to excel at this distance again.

Finally, morning line favorite #2 Program Trading (5/2) is a horse I am not willing to leave off my Late Pick 5 ticket, but who I will try to beat with my win bets. Chad Brown’s six-year-old son of Lope de Vega returned to racing in August following a 14-month layoff. He disappointed at the odds-on favorite in the Bernard Baruch Stakes at Saratoga and then was second-best to NY-bred Rhetorical in the Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland. He admittedly had a disastrous trip last time out in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), but he is now 0-3 winning since coming back to action and will be a short price given the connections. The class is there given that he won three Grade 1 races in his first six career starts. On the track, he is a rather handy horse who can stay within a couple lengths of the pace and not give himself too much to do at the top of the stretch. It will be interesting to see where jockey Flavien Prat places him in the early going as the horses immediately next him, #1 Test Score and #3 Beach Gold, have similar running styles where they like to track the pace. Should he not break well or if one of the jockeys on Test Score or Beach Gold are more aggressive out of the gate, then he could get shuffled further back than he might ideally like to sit in the early going. If he runs back to his 2024 Turf Classic (G1) effort at Churchill Downs, then everyone else is likely running for second place, but until he shows he can get back in the winner’s circle, it’s fair to cautiously play against him in a talented field where he is going to be over bet.