Maker's Mark Mile Picks

Pace: There is the possibility of a decent pace in Friday’s Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) with several horses wanting to be forward or pressing the pace. #8 Northern Invader (4/1) would seem to be the speed of the speed for trainer Cherie DeVaux as outside of his maiden victory, the horse has only been able to win up front and should be fresh coming off a lengthy layoff. However, he will have plenty of company. To his outside, #9 Seminole Chief (20/1) is likely to send and stalk off of him during the early stages of the race as the horse prefers to sit a close-up second in many of his races. Meanwhile, further inside you have a horse like #2 Funtastic Again (6/1) who has tried to track the pace in recent starts but is always at this best when going to the lead and should have plenty of early foot given the long layoff. Finally, toward the middle of the field you have the duo of #5 Santorini (20/1) and #6 Carl Spackler (9/5) both of whom have good early pace and prefer to sit forward trips. The potential, and that’s the key word here, is for there to be some pace, but obviously jockeys and trainers look at racing forms too and can change tactics if they feel their horse will get sucked up into a speed battle and races that can look fast on paper end up with a slower pace because everyone gets conservative.

#3 Trikari (8/1) – The Graham Motion trainee was the top three-year-old turf miler last year as he took the American Turf (G2), the Belmont Derby (G1), and the Secretariat (G2) over three different turf courses. Motion shipped him out to California to face older horses for the first time and he finished an admirable fourth to Johannes who proved to be one of the best turf horses we have in North America. He shipped back to the Keeneland Fall Meet and was disappointing as the favorite in the Bryan Station (G3) where he finished sixth to finish his three-year-old campaign. It is fair to wonder whether the travel and long campaign got to him by the end or whether he dislikes Keeneland’s turf course as he has finished out of the money in both starts in Lexington. However, I think excuses could be made for those two efforts and the fact Motion is entering this horse in a Grade 1 off the bench to start his four-year-old campaign speaks to his level of confidence. Notice that trainer Chad Brown did not even try to do that last year with his morning line favorite Carl Spackler last year when he was going into a similar campaign. With the potential pace scenario, jockey John Velazquez should have Trikari sitting just behind the early speed in a position where he will get first crack at the leaders. Keeneland’s turf course is in tremendous shape after Lexington received days of rain last week that forced the rescheduling of the Friday and Saturday cards. We regularly see horses move forward as they mature and I believe Trikari is going to have a big 2025 season.

#6 Carl Spackler (9/5) – A fan favorite for trainer Chad Brown, Carl Spackler won four stakes races last year including a pair of Grade 1s. He finished out the year recording four consecutive 100+ Beyer Speed Figure efforts even as he finished sixth to close out his campaign in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). He is a horse that has good tactical speed and should be sitting relatively close to the leaders. The son of Lope de Vega is clearly in a better place than he was last year when Brown started him off against listed stakes company before going a pair of Grade 3s before things started to click. The question will be whether he is fresh to fire off the bench as we have seen a few Brown runners disappoint off long layoffs such as Sierra Leone and Chancer McPatrick, though those were both on the dirt. Over the last five years, Brown is 3-9 (33%) at Keeneland in graded stakes turf races with horses coming off a 120-180-day layoff, so he knows who to get them ready for this spot. Carl Spackler won the Turf Mile (G1) over this course last fall but does pick up new jockey Flavien Prat over his regular jockey Tyler Gaffalione who is recovering from a broken ankle he suffered down at Gulfstream Park a couple of weeks ago. Prat is an upgraded for nearly every jockey, though taking over a horse in a Grade 1 who is coming off the bench might be a slight adjustment. I believe Carl Spackler will have a big 2025 season, but if you’re going to play against him, it feels like doing it in his first race back is as good a time as any.

#1 Integration (3/1) – The son of Quality Road is coming off a runner-up finish in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1) down at Gulfstream Park back in January. Trainer Shug McGaughey’s runner has only run over the Keeneland turf once before, which was a third-place effort in last year’s renewal of this race, but the turf was yielding that day, and he faced a pair of European invaders. It is a domestic affair this year, but I do wonder whether he might leave himself with a little too much to do at the top of the stretch. While he should appreciate the anticipated pace setup, he will likely be at the back of the field as he breaks from the inside rail and lacks the sort of speed to get position in the middle of the pack. There is also the question of distance. Outside of that one effort going a mile in last year’s race, he has traditionally been a horse that runs between 9-12 furlongs. On the plus side, he should appreciate a faster early pace in these shorter races, but there is also the issue of having to close from the back and move a little sooner than he might traditionally. Jockey Frankie Dettori is up again after riding him last time at Gulfstream Park. Dettori is a legendary turf rider, but he has not been riding yet during the Keeneland Spring Meet, so it will be interesting to see if there is any adjustment period as nearly all the other jockeys in the race have gotten in some reps over this turf course. Integration does not run bad races, so it is hard to see him not firing, but at a relatively short price, I feel like there are some questions about distance and trip.

#9 Seminole Chief (20/1) – Cherie DeVaux’s runner, #8 Northern Invader (4/1), is worthy of a mention as he is likely to be the early leader, but I expect him to succumb to the pace in the last furlong, particularly coming off the bench. As a result, I want to give some love to a bomb that could outrun his odds in the form of Jack Sisterson’s son of Girvin. He switched to the turf three races ago and has steadily improved while picking up a stakes win in the Appleton last time out at Gulfstream Park. There is no doubt this is a step up in class, but unlike many of these runners, Seminole Chief is not coming off the bench and is likely in better condition than much of the field. Is he the same quality? Perhaps not, but in a race where so many of the top choices have question marks, here is a horse that is ascending and in his regular cycle. He won off Lasix in his last effort while earning a career-best 90 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) and jockey Dylan Davis stays aboard after that winning ride. Expect for him to hound Northern Invader in the early going as DeVaux’s horse will try to cross and clear from the outside and Seminole Chief will just stay off his flank or pick up second position behind him on the rail. He will get first crack at the leader on the turn and top of the stretch, which is a perfect trip, particularly if the pace ends up being slightly slower than anticipated. He has handled 8.5 furlongs in the past, so he has the foundation to easily to a mile under these conditions and while the transition of the turf from Gulfstream Park to Keeneland is significant, Sisterson clearly feels this horse is sitting on a big effort to wheel him back so quickly in a big spot having last run two weeks ago.