BET KEENELAND

BET KEENELAND: TRACK STATS

Throughout the Keeneland meet, Matthew DeSantis from NYRA Bets will provide updated weekly track trends.

What are track trends?

Track trends provide two levels of data for bettors and handicappers. First, it analyzes how frequently favorites are winning different levels of races as well as looking at how favorites perform on different surfaces and distances. Second, they analyze how different running styles (leaders, trackers, closers) perform on different surfaces and distances to have the ideal winning trip.

Obviously starting Track Stats at the beginning of the Keeneland Spring Meet, the sample sizes will be rather small, which can cause statistical variation from week-to-week during such a brief meet. However, Track Stats can still give you a quick snapshot for how the meet is going. Due to the distinctiveness of the two-year-old races in the Keeneland Spring Meet, those races will be disaggregated in their own category for winning trip analysis due to the shorter distance and unique configuration.

If you scroll to the bottom of the page, you will get some more historical trend analysis for the last three Keeneland Spring Meets.

Use the data below to help identify helpful trends for handicapping and betting through the Keeneland Spring meet.

Post Time Favorite Analysis

Overall, post time favorites in races are winning at a 38.6% rate through the penultimate day of the Keeneland Spring meet.

From a betting standpoint, a flat $2 win bet on every post time favorite would return $1.90 (-5% ROI) through the meet. Meanwhile, here are how favorites performed at different odds.

Average Overall Field Size – 8.64
Average Dirt Field Size – 7.89
Average Turf Field Size – 10.67
Average OFF TURF Field Size – 6.00

Favorites by Level

• Maiden Special Weight race favorites – 45.9%
• Maiden Claiming race favorites – 25.0%
• Claiming racing favorites – 35.3%
• Optional Claiming race favorites – 23.1%
• Allowance race favorites – 46.2%
• Stakes race favorites – 33.3%

Favorites by Distance and Surface

• Dirt Sprint favorites – 36.0%
• Dirt 2-year-old favorites – 75.0%
• Dirt Route favorites – 32.4%
• Turf Sprint favorites – 23.1%
• Turf Route favorites – 41.4%
• OFF TURF Sprint favorites – 100%
• OFF TURF Route favorites – 60%

Winning Trips Analysis

Dirt Sprint Winners (n=50)

• 46.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 42.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at the ½ mile mark.
• 12.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at the ½ mile mark.

Two-Year-Old Dirt Sprint Winners (n=7)

• 87.5% have been leading at the ¼ mile mark.
• 0.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ¼ mile mark.
• 12.5% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ¼ mile mark.

Dirt Route Winners (n=34)

• 26.5% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 38.2% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 35.3% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Turf Sprint Winners (n=14)

• 28.6% have been leading at the 3/8-mile mark.
• 35.7% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at the 3/8-mile mark.
• 35.7% have come from more than 3 lengths back at the 3/8-mile mark.

Turf Route Winners (n=29)

• 20.7% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 51.7% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 27.6% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

OFF TURF Sprint Winners (n=1)

• 100% have been leading at the 3/8-mile mark.
• 0.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at the 3/8-mile mark.
• 0.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at the 3/8-mile mark.

OFF TURF Route Winners (n=5)

• 80.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 20.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 0.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

BET KEENELAND: HISTORICAL TRENDS

Nothing marks the start of Spring in horse racing like the beginning of the Keeneland Spring Meet, which begins on Friday, April 5 through Friday, April 26. It might be brief, but the spring meet is jammed packed with exciting maiden races, thrilling graded stakes action, and a convergence of the biggest names in the sport onto Lexington, KY.

NYRA Bets expert Matthew DeSantis prepares you for this year’s meet with some historical trends we have seen at the Keeneland Spring Meet the last few years. Also, once the meet starts, make sure to come back every week as Matthew will keep updated Keeneland Track Stats that analyzes how favorites before at different distances, surfaces, and levels in addition to examining the winning trips for every type of race to give you the winning edge as a horse player.

Two-Year-Old Races

Let’s start with the races many fans traditionally associate with the Keeneland Spring Meet, and those are the first two-year-old races for the new crop of thoroughbreds. Everyone is always eager to see the next generation of stars, and this will be our first chance. Of course, the name that is synonymous with the two-year-old races at Keeneland is trainer Wesley Ward. Since 2019 (excluding 2020 when the Spring Meet was delayed until July due to COVID), Ward has won an astonishing 46% of first-time out two-year-old races during the Keeneland Spring Meet from 50 starters. What makes Ward’s dominance so astounding is not simply the percentages, but the sheer volume of first-time two-year-old starters he brings to Lexington. During that same stretch since 2019, the next closest trainer in terms of starts was John Hancock who has 31 while only collecting four wins (13%).

However, it is important to remember that success out of the gate at two-years-old does not always equate to a long and productive career. Of the 50 first-time juvenile starters Ward has put forth during the Keeneland Spring Meet only one has gone on to become a $1 million earner (Kimari) with two other horses, Twilight Gleaming and Nakatomi, being the other standouts who have earned $940,000 and $750,000 respectively. However, the list of 50 is also littered with names who only raced once or twice. Therefore, it is probably wise not to make any 2025 Kentucky Derby Future wagers based upon what you see in April 2024.

Trainers

While I already touched on Ward, Keeneland Spring Meet is such a special time because it brings together East Coast and Midwest trainers in a similar way Saratoga’s meet in the summer brings the best from across the country. The biggest trainers in the sport bring some of their best horses to run during this four-week window and you see the same names dominating each years.

The biggest takeaway from the table is just how consistently trainers like Ward, Pletcher, Cox, Brown, and Mott win during the meet. Their runners are always live and the fact you get significant field sizes and many of their horses running against each other often will allow you to get respectable value on excellent horses.

An important note to make regarding two trainers in the table. Both Brendan Walsh and Graham Motion had rough 2021 Keeneland Spring Meets, which brought their aggregated numbers down. In 2021, Walsh could not catch a winner as he was 0-24 but finished in the money in 13 of 24 starts. Meanwhile, Motion was only slightly better as he went 1-19 winning and 8-19 the money for the 2021 Spring Meet. However, both trainers have been excellent in the last two years. That said, Walsh’s barn does have a reputation of running hot and cold and due to the Keeneland Spring Meet being so brief he can be either feast or famine since the barn rarely has enough time to reverse their fortunes in a span of four weeks.

While the top trainers may be dominant, however they do not hold a monopoly over the biggest races at Keeneland. In recent years we have seen trainers like Victoria Oliver, Arnaud Delacour, and Will Stinson Jr. win graded stakes races during the Keeneland Spring Meet along with a pair of California-based trainers Phil D’Amato and John Sadler.