Long Branch Stakes Picks

Pace: Saturday is Opening Day at Monmouth Park, which always reminds me that summer will be here before you know it and the feature race on the first day of racing is the Long Branch Stakes, which is often the prep to the Pegasus Stakes, which serves as a prep for the NYRA Bets Haskell (G1) later this year. With regards to the pace, look toward the outside as #7 Kentucky Outlaw should represent the best early speed in the field, particularly with the addition of blinkers, which should help him overcome the slow start he had last time out in the Federico Tesio Stakes. From there, #2 Dear Chairman and #4 Baby Dukes should take up a stalking position to the inside while horses like #3 Lordship and #8 Pascaline will likely be content to track from mid-pack in a consolidated field. Note that two runners, #3 Lordship and #5 Happily Delusional are both cross entered in Saturday’s Peter Pan (G3) at Aqueduct, so the complexion of the race could change dramatically depending on their participation in the race.

#3 Lordship (4/1) – Cross-entered in the Peter Pan (G3), this Chad Brown runner has a good shot at making noise no matter which races he runs but will likely be a much shorter price in the Long Branch field. The son of Gun Runner is the full sibling to Grade 3 winner Hall of Fame who has recorded four straight 100+ Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) including one last Friday in the Alysheba (G2). Lordship debuted at Tampa Bay Downs in March where he won despite a poor start that put him well behind the leaders. He collected himself under today’s jockey Sammy Camacho and made a nice move to ultimately get the lead with a half furlong left. He could show better early speed in his second start if he gets things cleaned up coming out of the gate as he hopped in debut and put himself behind other horses early. His debut 75 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) is not particularly overwhelming in this field, but he has every right to move forward in his second start. Stepping the horse up to stakes competition out of a debut victory might seem like a lot, but Brown has had success getting horses to win graded stakes races on the dirt in these spots. Over the last five years, both Early Voting and Jack Christopher have won dirt route graded stakes races in their second starts after being a debut winner. Additionally, Sierra Leone was a close second under those conditions in the 2023 Remsen (G3), so despite Brown’s reputation as being primarily a turf trainer, he has had significant success with stepping dirt horses up in these scenarios. If there is a hole in that logic, his young runners who achieve the most success tend to be heavy favorites. Nevertheless, Lordship has a lot to like aside from pedigree as he represents a horse that could have more upside should he get a cleaner start. Expect him to track the early pace sitting anywhere between second and fourth while saving ground on the inside. His family tree would indicate distance will be his friend and should get stronger late in the race.

#8 Pascaline (5/2) – The third-place finisher in the Bayshore Stakes last time out has a lot to like for trainer Arnoud Delacour as he gave a good account coming off the bench in a race that was dominated on the frontend. The West Virginia bred is the full sibling to 13-time winner Social Chic and seems to enjoy winning as much as his big brother as he started off his career with a pair of victories including the Laurel Futurity where he bested eventual Nashua Stakes winner Studlydoright and next out winner Just a Fair Shake. Delacour then sent him to the bench for nearly seven months before he came back in the Bayshore to run a career-high 86 BSF. The horse clearly showed him something in training leading up to that race for him to bring him back in such an aggressive spot and it speaks well to his chances on Saturday that he was steadily making up ground on the leaders at seven furlongs. He has already won going two turns at Laurel and while his pedigree might not scream two turns, he has enough to get the 1 mile and 70 yards for this race. Jockey Victor Carasco is back aboard after guiding him to his first two victories and should look to get a good position tracking the pace going into the first turn while avoiding being caught too wide. The horse registered a 48.4 second bullet workout going four furlongs at Fair Hill this past weekend leading up to the race and appears to be ready for his second start of the year. While he is likely to be the shortest price on the board thanks to that strong last out BSF, he feels like a horse that is well spotted in this race and will fire a big effort while sitting an ideal trip.

#7 Kentucky Outlaw (3/1) – In my opinion, the $12,000 son of Outwork is a strong contender to win on Saturday and was a horse I liked prior to his last effort in the Federico Tesio Stakes. The Felissa Dunn trainee started his career a perfect 2-2 while running with Lasix at Parx. He showed great gate speed on both races and easily dispatched allowance optional claiming company going two turns as he bested runner-up, and fellow Long Branch entry, Happily Delusional by over five lengths. Last time out in the Federico Tesio he had a poor start and was unable to get a forward position, which led to him getting checked back early, throwing his head, and climbing a bit during the early stages of the race. It also forced the jockey to move him wide in the first turn to avoid the kickback. He eventually settled and made a nice move around the second turn but flattened out in the stretch after exerting a significant amount of energy getting into contention. While his final running time and BSF looked like a step back, it could serve as an educational effort as he showed the ability to pass horses and not pack it in when he encounters adversity. However, that might not be an issue on Saturday as Dunn goes to the blinkers for the first time, which should accentuate his gate speed and ensure he is up front in the early going of the race. Monmouth Park is a track where frontend speed often does well going two turns on dirt as only 20% of winners during last year’s meet came from more than 3 lengths back at the half-mile mark. So long as he breaks cleanly, Kentucky Outlaw should be able to cross and clear the field going into the first turn under new jockey Paco Lopez. While Lopez can leave much to be desired in terms of his on-track behavior, he is consistently one of the top jockeys at Laurel Park is should do well on a speed horse. I would never want to spread too much in a race that could feature as few as six runners, but Kentucky Outlaw would be a horse I would want on my horizontal wagers.

#4 Baby Dukes (6/1) – The Butch Reid trainee has run well in his two starts as a three-year-old as he won the City of Brotherly Love Stakes at Parx in his first start of the year while going 8.5 furlongs before finishing third in his next start in the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park. In the City of Brotherly Love Stakes he was able to get to the lead and then fend off his challenger Right Wing Runner who briefly poked a nose in front in the stretch. You love to see that type of fight and determination from a horse, particularly in his first start off the bench going two turns. His next start was not quite as easy as he was dueling with the other primary speed in the race, Tony Eclipse, which likely wore him out as he faded to third behind Sacred Thunder and Pay Billy, the latter of whom went on to win the Federico Tesio Stakes and will be running in next weekend’s Preakness Stakes (G1). Like a few others in the Long Branch, his pedigree does not signal he would love to go longer, but if there is any track on the East Coast that allows one turn horses to get longer distances, it is Monmouth Park. The biggest obstacle for Baby Dukes is that he appears to do his best running up front, but I am not confident he will get to the lead with the presence of Kentucky Outlaw to his outside. Jockey Eliseo Ruiz might try to send him to get him in front, but I think it is more likely Kentucky Outlaw clears him, and Ruiz then moves to his outside in the two-path going into the first turn to ensure the horse has a clear run with minimal kickback. It is worth noting that he got away with slow fractions in the City of Brotherly Love Stakes and might be pace compromise if he is forced to set or track a strong early pace, which is what happened in his last race. He has run his two career best BSF the last two times out, so perhaps there is another level he can ascend to on Saturday, but he feels more like an underneath play than a serious win contender.