Kentucky Oaks Picks

It’s Kentucky Oaks Day! We have a very heavy undefeated favorite in 11-Good Cheer, who is your 6/5 morning line favorite and is attracting even more attention in the advanced wagering pools. If you saw our Kentucky Oaks preview on the NYRA Bets YouTube with myself and Matthew DeSantis, you know that I firmly believe Good Cheer is essential on your multi race wagers today if you are trying to stay alive, but I believe there is another filly who is a strong contender in her own right and ran the same last out Beyer Speed Figure of a 91 against a full field of some of the best Oaks fillies we have seen all year. That is my top pick, 14-Quietside, who is 8-1 on the morning line and is coming into this off of two straight wins in the G2 Honeybee and the G2 Fantasy. The John Ortiz trainee was ridden to victory in both those starts by Jose Ortiz, who is red hot and seems to be a great match for this consistently improving filly from the last crop of Malibu Moon. She draws the far outside post, which complements her running style of tracking right off the pace. This will suit her well, and her job has certainly gotten a bit easier with the scratch of frontrunner Five G. She will track off La Cara, who ran a huge race in the G1 Ashland and is likely to be favored over Quietside. However, she was nearly nabbed by the oncoming Take Charge Milady, and will need to replicate that trip and also stretch out to the 1 1/8 distance, while either facing pressure from Simply Joking or fighting her for the lead. I do not love either of their chances, and believe Quietside is a strong win contender and will have the best value of anyone.

As aforementioned, I still believe Good Cheer’s chances to win are strong, but it is not a given. I was impressed by her all year and she is one of the two standouts in this field, but I will be playing Quietside on top. I’ll be focusing on the two of them in a lot of my wagers, and am excited to see Good Cheer face a filly who is improving and has every right to continue to.

After ranking 14-Quietside and 11-Good Cheer on top, a filly I also believe is improving is the 10-Take Charge Milady. She was not included in my Top 5 Oaks Contenders video after news broke of a hoof abscess, which is not a big deal, but did cause her to miss a work. She ran a big race in the G1 Ashland where she made up ground over a speed favoriting track and nearly closed on La Cara. While I am not as bullish on her chances of winning, she will be able to work out a nice trip and will have pace to close into. I’ll have her on some multi race wagers, and definitely trifectas.

Another filly I’ve liked all year, but did regress last time out in the Santa Anita Oaks is the 9-Tenma. The Bob Baffert trainee has not faced a field nearly this large, but was running the highest figures of anyone out in California. She has tactical speed, is bred to handle the distance, and should also be able to work out a trip.

With what looks to be an honest pace on paper, it’s hard to imagine that 6-Ballerina d’Oro will run poorly, especially looking at how well she ran when she did have pace in front of her in the G2 Demoiselle to run 2nd to Muhimma. I’ll use her in some supers, but she is a bit of a wildcard in the way that that one off effort did not sell me that she has that much more late kick than some others in here, like the 13-Bless the Broken, who is 30-1 on the morning line and will also run well with pace and more ground in front of her. She had to ship into Aqueduct when she ran in the Demoiselle as well, but did not have the cleanest of trips and has improved significantly since. I expect her to sit a bit closer in the Oaks, potentially 8th or 9th, and make it into the super. She has run very well in Kentucky and is coming into this off a win in the Bourbonette Oaks where she was ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Johnny V for the first time, who will ride her back again in the Oaks.

If you are looking for another longshot who did not make it into my Top 5, the 1-Early On is another filly who will run well at this distance and is improving. I’ve touched on everyone I expect to run well, view 14-Quietside and 11-Good Cheer as true standouts, and highly recommend you check out our full preview on the Oaks.

KAYLIE SHAPIRO'S BEST BETS

• Win Bet on 14-Quietside
• Exacta Box on 14-Quietside and 11-Good Cheer
• Trifecta Boxes:
  • 14,11,9
  • 14,11,10
  • 14,11,13
• Super Boxes:
  • 14,11,10,9
  • 14,11,10,13
  • 14,11,10,13,9,1
• Multi Race Wagers: 14-Quietside and 11-Good Cheer