Kentucky Derby Picks

Pace: The pace of the 151st Kentucky Derby will be a much-debated topic from now until the gates open, but it seems like a sure bet that the pace will be strong. The main pace players are #1 Citizen Bull, #2 Neoequos, #4 Rodriguez, #5 American Promise, #6 Admire Daytona, #12 East Avenue, and #20 Owen Almighty. Now, before you assume they will barrel into the first turn seven across the track, remember not everyone will get their ideal trip. The connections of Owen Almighty, who were originally targeting the Pat Day Mile (G2) have said they are intending to rate Owen Almighty off the pace, though his post draw means he will certainly be sitting just behind or off the flank of the early leaders. Meanwhile, on the inside you have a Bob Baffert conundrum as his two horses, Citizen Bull and Rodriguez, both need the lead to be successful. I think there is a better chance that Rodriguez can rate, which means jockey Martin Garcia has strict instructions on Citizen Bull to quarter horse it out of the #1 post to get a forward position. The inside post draw is not as detrimental as it used to be when they had the auxiliary starting gate, but it is less than ideal simply because there is no room for even the slightest error.

Of the other main speed horses, trainer D. Wayne Lukas has said his horse, American Promise, is probably not as quick out of the gate as the Baffert duo, which makes sense as the son of Justify is a massive horse who is fast but might lack that initial burst out of the gate due to his large frame. One horse that seems intent to go to the front is East Avenue for trainer Brendan Walsh. The horse won his first two races in gate-to-wire fashion and then had disastrous results in his next two starts where he was sitting behind horses. Last time out in the Blue Grass (G1) he set the fractions and got nabbed late but is clearly a different horse on the front end. One horse that just got into the field, Neoequos, will have some intentionality to get to the front while breaking from post two and doing his best work up front. He has speed around him, so there is even more urgency not to get pinched back. Finally, one of the Japanese entries, Admire Daytona is likely to be part of the early pace as well. It is sometimes difficult to know just how much speed the Japanese horses will have, but traditionally, they like to be up front early in these types of races and he has plenty of sprinter speed in his pedigree.

Therefore, while there are seven potential horses up front, the reality is that you could see a situation where East Avenue and Citizen Bull are sitting 1-2 going into the first turn with Rodriguez, Neoequos, American Promise, Owen Almighty, and Admire Daytona pressing them from behind. Either way, the pace will be more than honest, but we might not get a meltdown like we have seen in recent years. Therefore, it might be reasonable to look for horses who are going to sit mid-pack trips and will not need the assistance of a massive pace collapse to have a chance of winning. Additionally, mid-pack runners will likely deal with fewer traffic issues and get a cleaner trip from their position while being able to avoid going too wide around the second turn. Of the front runners, Rodriguez is the one in which I have the most confidence being able to stick around toward the end. American Promise certainly has the pedigree for the Classic distance, but I worry about him getting sandwiched between two speed horses (Rodriguez and Admire Daytona) and losing some early position. Ultimately, I think this race will be won in a similar fashion to last year where Mystik Dan sat behind the early pace, but did not have to make up as much ground as the late-charging duo of Forever Young and Sierra Leone.

#8 Journalism (3/1) – My initial pick to win the Kentucky Derby was #10 Grande (20/1), but when he scratched it certainly changed my thinking. You have to wonder if owner Mike Repole is cursed as he has had Derby horses scratch in two of the last three years and the one year his horse did run, Fierceness became the only post time favorite to miss the superfecta in the last 12 years. However, let’s shift to my new top pick and your morning line favorite who is more than deserving of that privilege as he has ripped off four straight victories with the last three coming in Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races. The winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), San Felipe (G2), and Santa Anita Derby (G1) has faced every contender in California and dispatched no matter the trip, track conditions, or team tactics used to beat him. The Michael McCarthy trainee has the perfect pedigree for the Kentucky Derby as he is sired by Curlin and out of a Grade 2-winning Uncle Mo mare, so there is more than enough stamina and speed blended into his powerful frame. Much like Grande, Journalism should be able to make his own trip. If the early pace does not develop, he can use his speed to track from the fifth or sixth position. If the early fractions are blistering, he can easily drop back to twelfth or thirteenth unleash his intimidating stride late in the race. There are very few holes to poke in this horse who is coming off consecutive 100+ Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) efforts in his last two races. For context, only one other runner has a 100+ BSF race (Rodriguez). Critics will point out that his speed figure regressed slightly last time out from a 108 to a 102, but trainer Bob Baffert had made comments late last week that the track at Santa Anita that day was playing a little slower than normal as his filly, Tenma, who won the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) had dealt with a deep and tiring track earlier in the card. The other thing to consider is that jockey Umberto Rispoli has gotten Journalism into a little trouble on the second turn and had to get out from behind horses. He spotted Baeza six lengths and had to make up a lot of ground turning for home. I am less concerned about whether he “bounced” out of his San Felipe and whether he is going to regress again on Saturday, but I am concerned about two other factors, neither of which the horse can control. The first is field size. During his three stakes victories he faced a total of 12 other runners. 12. On Saturday, he will face 19 other runners and must deal with legitimate traffic for probably the first time in his career. The other issue is the jockey Umberto Rispoli. Rispoli is an outstanding turf jockey on the West Coast, but he has had limited success riding in Kentucky through the years and is not always the best on the dirt, which was evident in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) where he managed to get Journalism boxed in as he chose to follow longshot Westwood who predictably started backing up. Rispoli is a streaky jockey and is certainly capable of delivering good rides, but the combination of a larger field size and a jockey I do not trust is enough for me to try and beat this physically dominant horse. However, I do not believe he will run a bad race and is the horse that would win this race the greatest number of times if that ran it 100 times.

#19 Chunk of Gold (30/1) – I could have gone in a few different directions, but with my new top pick being your morning line favorite, I felt like I needed to go with a big price underneath, which is Chunk of Gold. He has humble beginnings as he was sold for only $2,500 as a yearling, which happened before his half sibling, Band of Gold, won last year’s Martha Washington Stakes while being on the Kentucky Oaks trail. He is sired by Preservationist whose sire career was going so poorly they shipped him over to stand in Korea. However, Preservationist now has a Derby runner and one of the better four-year-olds in the form of Antiquarian, so they might have been hasty doing so. As for Chunk of Gold, despite the modest sales price and pedigree, he won in debut at Turfway Park over the synthetic before stepping up to run second to Baby Max in the Leonatus Stakes in his second start. Based off those efforts, trainer Ethan West put the horse on the Kentucky Derby trail and started him in the Risen Star (G2) where he finished second to runaway winner Magnitude who briefly set the internet ablaze with his winning 108 BSF before being taken off the Derby trail 36 hours later with bone chips in his ankle. Nevertheless, the runner-up finish for Chunk of Gold was a positive as he outfinished fellow Kentucky Derby runners East Avenue, Render Judgement, and American Promise and was also ahead of Built who will be among the favorites in the Pat Day Mile (G2). He followed up that effort with another second-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in an effort that I feel is better than it looks on paper. He sat fifth throughout most of that race, which featured strong fractions considering the 1 3/16-mile distance. The eventual winner and third-place finisher came from second to last and late place, respectively. The horses that sat closest to Chunk of Gold during the race, Built, finished five lengths behind him. The race was dominated by closers and yet Chunk of Gold was the horse closest to the pace that finished the strongest. Additionally, third-place finisher, Instant Replay, came back to win the Bathhouse Row Stakes at Oaklawn Park in his next start. Since that effort in the Louisiana Derby (G2), Chunk of Gold has resumed training at Turfway Park over their all-weather surface. In recent years we have seen a successful transition for horses coming from the synthetic at Turfway to the dirt at Churchill Downs, most notably with Rich Strike winning the 2022 Kentucky Derby after running third in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) in his final prep race. Can Chunk of Gold win? I’m doubtful, but I think he will sit the right type of trip as he should secure a mid-pack trip going into the first turn. Jockey Jareth Loveberry rode Two Phil’s to a runner-up finish in the Kentucky Derby a couple of years ago and this horse gives me some similar vibes in that he does not have the flashiest connections while running well on both dirt and synthetic. Chunk of Gold is a horse I have upgraded throughout the week and is one who I think will vastly outrun his odds on Saturday so long he works out the trip.

#18 Sovereignty (5/1) – Godolphin, who might be the most successful entity within the sport of horseracing, is still in search of their first Kentucky Derby. In Sovereignty they have a legitimate contender trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott. Expectations around Sovereignty have been high since the beginning as jockey Junior Alvarado told people he was the best two-year-old in Mott’s barn last year. While he took some time to finally break his maiden, when he did finally win, he did it emphatically in the Street Sense (G3) going 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs over a group that included eventual Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Tiztastic and eventual Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Sandman. His effort in that race was his final race as a two-year-old, but it stamped him as a top contender for the Kentucky Derby. His 2025 debut came in the Fountain of Youth (G2) where he looked like he might have been done down the back stretch only to perk up around the turn, circle the field, and catch River Thames on the wire. It was an impressive effort given the way the Gulfstream Park track plays and the fact he had a short homestretch with the first wire. His final prep race was in the Florida Derby (G1) where he again sat toward the back of the field while breaking wide and made a run late but could not get to Tappan Street who got the jump on him, which brings us to Saturday. Of all the deep closers, Sovereignty is the one that I have the most confidence will get the right trip to make his run. While he is breaking wide, that should also ensure that Junior Alvarado can get him easily into stride and slowly work his way over going into the first turn. Alvarado has some experience coming down the center of the track with a deep closer as he won the world’s richest race, the Saudi Cup (G1), last year with Senor Buscador doing the same thing. The only reason I do not have Sovereignty in my top three is because of what I saw in the Florida Derby. I agree with many who believe he was not fully cranked for that effort, but the concern is less about him being at 100% and more about the race playing out in a similar fashion. I can easily see a scenario where any of the top three horses I have get the jump on him while Sovereignty will have to make his run from the back and have more to overcome. He should appreciate the 1 ¼ mile distance as despite being sired by Into Mischief, he has a strong female family with Bernardini as his broodmare sire. He should also appreciate the long homestretch that will allow him to straight out and come with his run. However, he needs to get underway around the turn to ensure he does not have too much to do coming home. I would be scared to leave him off my tickets and I believe he will be third choice come post time with Journalism and Sandman taking more money from the public.

#9 Burnham Square (12/1) – The son of Liam’s Map is a horse that really stood out to me during my time at Churchill Downs last week watching morning workouts. He moved so well over the track and looked to have so much stamina for doing the 1 ¼ mile distance of the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Ian Wilkes debuted him in a maiden claiming race, albeit it for $150,000, but made sure never to put this colt in for a tag again. He ran a very close third against maiden special weight company in his only start under the Twin Spires in a race that produced five next-out winners including fellow Kentucky Derby entrant American Promise. Burnham Square came into his own down in Florida where he broke his maiden impressively by nine lengths and followed that up with a victory in the Holy Bull (G3) over Tappan Street who subsequently won the Florida Derby (G1) over Sovereignty in his next start. Meanwhile, Wilkes sent Burnham Square to the Fountain of Youth (G2) for his next start where he ran fourth. The effort was not ideal, but Wilkes later admitted he had taken it easy on Burnham Square leading up to the Fountain of Youth and that he was not fully cranked. However, he did not make that mistake again as he tightened the screws prior to his last race, and you saw Burnham Square score an impressive victory in the Blue Grass (G1) where he tracked down lone leader East Avenue in the stretch. The winning jockey of the 2024 Kentucky Derby, Brian Hernandez Jr., was aboard for that effort and will remain on the mount for Saturday. While he had the benefit of a strong pace in the Blue Grass, it was still impressive to watch the horse make up 11 lengths on a track at Keeneland that can often hold up early speed. From a long-range perspective, the horse has never regressed in his BSF, and he is coming off a 96 BSF in his last race. He would need to get a little faster to win this race, but the way he has moved forward five or six points in every race, it stands to reason he could do the same come Saturday. While he comes from off the pace, he has shown speed when the opportunity presents itself and should be sitting mid-pack close to where Grande and Journalism are set up. His workouts leading up to the Kentucky Derby have been visually impressive but are also noteworthy as he has not always been a great workout horse, but it appears as if the light has gone off and things are clicking into place at exactly the right time.