BET THE KENTUCKY DERBY

Who is running in this year’s Kentucky Derby? See below for a full list of current probable runners for the 151st Kentucky Derby, which includes their names, trainers, jockeys, pedigrees, and a brief writeup about their chances.

Name: Journalism
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Pedigree: Sire – Curlin Dam – Mopotism (Uncle Mo)
Overview: The California-based runner will come into the Kentucky Derby as the presumptive favorite having not lost since his debut in October 2024. During his win streak he has won the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), San Felipe (G2), and Santa Anita Derby (G1). He has earned consecutive 100+ Beyer Speed Figures coming into the Kentucky Derby, which sets him apart from every other contender. While a great deal of attention on California racing focuses on small field sizes and trainer Bob Baffert’s return to Churchill Downs after a 3+ year suspension, Journalism and trainer Michael McCarthy have rolled through the competition. The horse has an outstanding pedigree for the distance and should sit mid-pack within the field of 20. He has a powerful stride and can easily pass horses. He has dealt with speed favoring tracks and running against team tactics out west and should relish the setup in Louisville, Kentucky.

Name: Sovereignty
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Pedigree: Sire – Into Mischief Dam – Crowned (Bernardini)
Overview: Godolphin, the world’s largest thoroughbred horseracing and breeding operation, is still in search of their elusive first Kentucky Derby victory. However, the wait might be over soon with Sovereignty who is their most promising runner in this year’s race. Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, the son of Into Mischief has long been pegged as Derby favorite due to his demeanor, physical attributes, and running style. He possesses victory at Churchill Downs as he won last year’s Street Sense (G3) over future Grade 1 winners (and Derby entries) Tiztastic and Sandman. He has a late-running style but has shown the ability to overcome obstacles like a moderate pace and a short stretch run in the Fountain of Youth (G2) which he won in thrilling fashion. He will need to get the right trip from jockey Junior Alvarado who is back aboard after missing the Florida Derby (G1) due to a shoulder injury.

Name: Sandman
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Pedigree: Sire – Tapit Dam – Distorted Music (Distorted Humor)
Overview: The Mark Casse trainee has flashed talent but did not put it all together until his final prep race when he won the Arkansas Derby (G1). Even in that victory he displayed bouts of immaturity like his dad (Tapit). If you go back and watch Tapit’s victory in the Wood Memorial and Sandman’s victory in the Arkansas Derby, they have eerily similar stretch runs where both were weaving late and lacked focus. What cannot be denied is that the horse has an incredible amount of talent and has a running style that has proven effective the last several years where a strong pace has led to winners coming from well off the pace. One of the red flags for Sandman is that he has run at Churchill Downs three times and never finished better than a distant third. That said, new jockey Jose Ortiz appears to have made all the difference in his last effort, and should he be able to navigate traffic for the Kentucky Derby, Sandman will be hitting his best stride late.

Name: Burnham Square
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Pedigree: Sire – Liam’s Map Dam – Linda (Scat Daddy)
Overview: A horse that started his career in a maiden claiming race has surpassed initial expectations as he won the Holy Bull (G3) and Blue Grass (G1) in two of his last three races prior to running in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Ian Wilkes admitted the horse was not fully cranked for his fourth-place effort in the Fountain of Youth (G2) but had gotten him into better fitness for his final race at Keeneland when he tracked down East Avenue on the lead in the last stride of the race. He is another “off-the-pace” runner but appears to run better with more distance and should appreciate the 1 ¼ mile distance of the Kentucky Derby. Additionally, his victory in the Holy Bull (G3) was flattered as runner-up finisher, Tappan Street, came back to win the Florida Derby (G1) in his next start.

Name: Tappan Street
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez
Pedigree: Sire – Into Mischief Dam – Virginia Key (Distorted Humor)
Overview: The winner of the Florida Derby (G1) has only had three career starts. He broke his maiden and trainer Brad Cox immediately stepped him up to the Holy Bull (G3) where he finished a competitive second with eventual Blue Grass (G1) winner Burnham Square. Cox held him out of the “50-point preps” and he was running for his spot in the starting gate in the Florida Derby (G1) where he sat mid-pack and then took over the leaders while also holding off late-charging Sovereignty. His 94 Beyer Speed Figure from his last race needs to get faster, but he has shown marked improvement in all his career starts. His pedigree does not scream distance despite his sire, Into Mischief, having produced two Kentucky Derby winners, but both come with an asterisk. One of those victories came during the COVID year and the other came via disqualification.

Name: Grande
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Pedigree: Sire – Curlin Dam – Journey Home (War Front)
Overview: The runner-up in the Wood Memorial (G2) is one of several entries in the Kentucky Derby field who have limited experience but have shown significant promise in their most recent starts. Owner Mike Repole has been searching for his Kentucky Derby moment but has fallen short in recent years with Forte having to scratch out of the race with a minor foot issue in 2023 and last year’s post time favorite Fierceness disappointing as he faded in the stretch. Grande lack the star power of Forte and Fierceness, but trainer Todd Pletcher is as good as they come at getting horses to stretch out and Grande already owns a victory going 1 1/8 miles in his second career start. His second-place finish in the Wood Memorial (G2) was impressive as he was forced to come from further back than normal while traveling five-wide and attempting to chase a horse, Rodriguez, who was a gate-to-wire winner. He is an ascending horse who might just be able to provide a big effort in the biggest race of his career.

Name: Rodriguez
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Pedigree: Sire – Authentic Dam – Cayala (Cherokee Run)
Overview: Trainer Bob Baffert has been suspended from entering horses in the Kentucky Derby (and Churchill Downs) for the last three years following Medina Spirit’s positive test for betamethasone after crossing the line first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Baffert has his detractors and several other high profile positive tests for regulated substances led to Churchill Downs taking the action of banning him from entries for two years and they extended the ban an additional year until all appeals were dropped. Now that Baffert, who has won the Kentucky Derby a record-tying six times, is allowed to enter horses again, he seems likely to bring a contingent of three runners. Rodriguez might end up being the most promising after his gate-to-wire victory in the Wood Memorial. The son of Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, Rodriguez appears to be a “need the lead” horse who runs significantly better up front as he did in his maiden breaking score and his last race. In between, he was often asked to rate off the pace of his more ballyhooed stablemates like Barnes and Citizen Bull. Once he got to show his own speed, he proved to be dangerous. The biggest issue with Rodriguez will be the pace as horses such as East Avenue and potentially Neoequos will be pressing the early action, not to mention his two stablemates, Citizen Bull and Madaket Road, like to run on the lead as well.

Name: Citizen Bull
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Pedigree: Sire – Into Mischief Dam – No Joke (Distorted Humor)
Overview: The most decorated of the three Baffert entries, Citizen Bull is the 2024 Champion Two-Year-Old Male having closed out his juvenile campaign winning the American Pharoah (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). He kicked off his three-year-old season winning the Robert B. Lewis (G3) and looked to be one of the top contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1). However, he won all three of those races in gate-to-wire fashion without being pressured for fast fractions. In the Santa Anita Derby (G1) he again went to the front, but this time was pressed while traveling 1 1/8 miles and he folded to finish a distant fourth to Journalism, Baeza, and Westwood. He might ultimately be more effective running a mile and there is a possibility Baffert points him toward the Pat Day Mile (G2) on the Kentucky Derby undercard. However, the ownership connections appear intent on sending him to the Kentucky Derby where he would likely run up front with one or both of his stablemates. Much like Tappan Street, he has some distance limitations due to the pedigree cross of Into Mischief and Distorted Humor. Being pressed going 1 ¼ miles would seem to be a bridge too far, but he is one of the few horses with multiple Grade 1 victories in his generation.

Name: Madaket Road
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Pedigree: Sire – Quality Road Dam – Frolic’s Dream (Smoke Glacken)
Overview: The third of three potential Baffert entries is coming off a fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby (G1). Prior to that effort he looked good running second to Coal Battle in the Rebel (G2) where the son of Quality Road went to the lead and set the pace before being tracked down by the eventual winner. His third-place effort in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) probably looks better on paper as he was a complete non-factor in the race. He does have one advantage over his stablemates, which is that unlike Citizen Bull and Rodriguez, he can come from off the pace as he did in his lone maiden breaking victory. However, the fact he faded going 1 1/8 miles at speed-favoring track like Gulfstream Park puts him a cut below many other major competitors. He will also need to get faster as his career best Beyer Speed Figure (90) is well below what will be needed to win in the Kentucky Derby.

Name: Tiztastic
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Pedigree: Sire – Tiz the Law Dam – Keesha (Tapit)
Overview: The son of first-crop sire Tiz the Law has shown ability to handle both turf and dirt as his first two career victories came on the grass before trainer Steve Asmussen switched surfaces. While he ran well on the dirt, it was not until he won the Louisiana Derby (G2) that he got his breakthrough victory on that surface. While you typically want to find horses with proven sires, Tiz the Law has gotten off to an outstanding start to his stallion career with many of his offspring preferring to run longer distances. Additionally, Tiztastic has the distance influence of Tapit on his dam’s side. Asmussen, who is the winningest trainer in North America, is still in search of his first Kentucky Derby victory. It is promising that Tiztastic owns a runner-up finish in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs, but he was still five lengths back of fellow Derby entrant Sovereignty that day. His final Beyer Speed Figure (95) will need to get a bit faster, but he has an off-the-pace running style that should set up nicely for the Kentucky Derby. Perhaps no jockey in North America is better equipped to make a furious charge from the back than Hall of Famer Joel Rosario who has made a career weaving through traffic with spectacular rides and thrilling finishes.

Name: Coal Battle
Trainer: Lonnie Briley
Jockey: Juan Vargas
Pedigree: Sire – Coal Front Dam – Wolfblade (Midshipman)
Overview: You will be hard pressed to find anyone not rooting for Coal Battle come post time at the 151st Kentucky Derby. The son of War Front was purchased for $70,000 at the Texas Yearling sale and has a modest pedigree that certainly did not point to this moment. However, 72-year-old trainer Lonnie Briley, who has never had a horse like this during his career, got him to break his maiden at Evangeline Downs before moving him to the turf in his next two starts. The horse did not take to the grass and was switched back to dirt where he rattled off four straight wins including the Smarty Jones Stakes and the Rebel (G2). In the Arkansas Derby (G1) he was sitting in good position off the pace and made his move into contention but flattened out in the stretch finishing third by seven lengths. Moving forward, distance will probably be his biggest issue, but Briley admitted after the Arkansas Derby (G1) that he likely took it too easy on the horse leading up to that race and he would have him cranked for his next start. Another positive for Coal Battle is that he has won on fast tracks and wet tracks, so no matter the weather, he will like the conditions.

Name: Publisher
Trainer: Steve Asmussun
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Pedigree: Sire – American Pharoah Dam – Indian Pride (Proud Citizen)
Overview: Still a maiden, Publisher feels like an unlikely Kentucky Derby prospect, but despite never winning a race, he ran a strong second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) to Sandman and finished well ahead of fellow Kentucky Derby entrant Coal Battle. He had some tough luck in the Rebel (G2) and Southwest (G3) where he had poor starts and tough trips, but he appeared to run much better last time out when trainer Steve Asmussen added blinkers. Aside from his Arkansas Derby (G1) effort, his next best performance might have been a runner-up finish to American Promise in a maiden special weight race as we saw the winner go on to win the Virginia Derby. He is another horse that will likely come from off the pace, but he can sit a little closer as he did in some of his previous maiden special weight starts. One of the top jockeys in the game, Irad Ortiz Jr., takes over the mount and will look to get Asmussen his first Kentucky Derby on a horse that has never won a race. Crazier things have happened, right?

Name: East Avenue
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: TBD
Pedigree: Sire – Medaglia d’Oro Dam – Dance Music (Ghostzapper)
Overview: If the Kentucky Derby were held at Keeneland rather than Churchill Downs, East Avenue might be a serious contender. The horse has run two phenomenal races down the road in Lexington, Kentucky as he won last year’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and finished second by a nose in the Blue Grass (G1) last time out. In between he had a troubled start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) where he was the post time favorite but stumbled out of the gate. In his first start of 2025, he faded badly when stalking the early pace in the Risen Star (G2). Those two efforts led to trainer Brendan Walsh putting on blinkers and sending this horse straight to the lead in the Blue Grass (G1) where he set blistering early fractions and still nearly hung on for the win. He is a “need the lead” horse will be sent straight to the front and will challenge runners like Rodriguez, Citizen Bull, and others for early supremacy. The question is whether he can sustain that run for 1 ¼ miles. He has an outstanding pedigree, but it is slightly concerning that his best two efforts have both come at Keeneland. He showed a lot of grit not letting horses like River Thames and others get by him in the stretch of the Blue Grass (G1) until Burnham Square nabbed him in the last stride, but the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) will likely be a significant longshot come post time in the 151st Kentucky Derby, which goes to show how much can change in just a few short months.

Name: Flying Mohawk
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Joe Ramos
Pedigree: Sire – Karakontie Dam – Bonbons Fleur (Twirling Candy)
Overview: Trainer Whit Beckman was on the Triple Crown trail last year with Honor Marie and is back against this year with Flying Mohawk who is coming off a runner-up finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). Before you dismiss the synthetic form, remember that Rich Strike came out of this race to win the Kentucky Derby (G1) in 2021 and in 2023, Two Phil’s won this race before finishing second in the Derby. The son of Karakontie owns a pair of victories over the turf but will be trying dirt for the first time. Beckman said the horse has always worked well over the dirt in the mornings and his pedigree is versatile enough to handle multiple surfaces. However, it might be a tall task as his career best Beyer Speed Figure (84) will need to get at least 15 points better to have any shot in this race. He will be a deep closer and while his running style might suit the pace scenario in this year’s race, he will have to contend with significant kickback from the horses in front of him, which is something he does not have to contend with during morning workouts over the main track. He has talent, but it will be a big leap to see him contending.

Name: Final Gambit
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: TBD
Pedigree: Sire – Not This Time Dam – Pachinko (Tapit)
Overview: The Juddmonte owned and bred runner won the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) in his final prep race, which was coming off a maiden victory. He is a horse that is hard to figure out as he has never run on the dirt having debuted on the turf before running his next three races on the synthetic. He also took a massive leap forward in his Beyer Speed Figures from his maiden victory (63) to his Jeff Ruby win (90). The question is whether that 90 is an anomaly or a sign of things to come. He is a lightly raced horse having only started four races, so it is possible that the flip just switched in his last start, and he will begin moving in an upward trajectory. Still, that is a lot to project as he also faces some of the same issues as Flying Mohawk as he is a deep closer who will have to deal with significant kickback running behind 18 or 19 other horses in the Kentucky Derby (G1). A horse could move well over the dirt in the morning, but it is another story when they must contend with significant obstacles over that same surface. He has enough pedigree to suggest he can handle dirt, but the experience at Churchill Downs will be a lot of this relatively inexperienced horse to handle.

Name: American Promise
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Nik Juarez
Pedigree: Sire – Justify Dam – Tapella (Tapit)
Overview: For people my age, there are few figures more synonymous with the Kentucky Derby (G1) than trainer D. Wayne Lukas, nicknamed “The Coach,” as he was a staple of the first Saturday in May all throughout the 80s and 90s. The Coach is still turning out winners as he trained last year’s Preakness (G1) and Pennsylvania Derby (G1) winner Seize the Gray. Now he has American Promise who is coming off a Virginia Derby win on March 15 at Colonial Downs. The son of Triple Crown winner Justify has a phenomenal pedigree as he should truly appreciate the distance. He is a frontrunner who has outstanding speed and will contend with Rodriguez, East Avenue, and others for the early lead. He is also a big horse with an imposing build, which makes you believe he is more likely to be able to sustain his run even with pace pressuring in the early going of the race. His maiden breaking victory came over a wet track, which is promising that he can handle different conditions, but his Virginia Derby win does come with a bit of an asterisk as although it was a nine-furlong race, it was also a one-turn configuration, which will be different from what he sees in that Kentucky Derby. I am also not sure if he beat anyone of note in that race and will be facing a massive step up in competition.

Name: Chunk of Gold
Trainer: Ethan West
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Pedigree: Sire – Preservationist Dam – Play for Gold (Cairo Prince)
Overview: The runner-up in the Risen Star (G2) and the Louisiana Derby (G2) is truly a Cinderella Story as he was purchased for a mere $2,500 as a yearling at the Fasig-Tipton October sale. The son of Preservationist might not have the overwhelming pedigree of some of the other horses running the first Saturday in May, but he has shown he belongs in the field. He started his career on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park breaking his maiden in debut and then running second in the Leonatus Stakes before making the transition to dirt. While he was a distant second to runaway winner Magnitude in the Risen Star (G2), he backed up that effort and speed figure in the Louisiana Derby (G2) when he ran second to Tiztastic despite sitting much closer to the hot pace that benefited closers. In fact, he was 6 ½ lengths closer to the pace at the half-mile mark that Tiztastic and 9 ½ lengths closer to the pace at the half-mile mark that third-place finisher Instant Replay. Jockey Jareth Loveberry rode Two Phil’s to an admirable runner-up finish in the 2023 Kentucky Derby and Chunk of Gold is reminiscent of that horse having run well on synthetic and dirt.

Name: Admire Daytona
Trainer: Yukihiro Kato
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Pedigree: Sire – Drefong Dam – Ice Pastel (Shackleford)
Overview: The winner of the UAE Derby (G2) is looking to do something that has never been done before, which is make the international travel and win the Kentucky Derby (G1). Last year we saw Forever Young come less than a head away from doing it as he finished a photo for third after sweeping the Saudi Derby (G3) and UAE Derby (G2). Admire Daytona is a nice horse, but he is not Forever Young who has blossomed into one of the best horses in the world. The son of Drefong will have international superstar jockey Christophe Lemaire aboard who rode Japanese runner Derma Sotogake to a sixth-place finish two years ago. Admire Daytona has good early speed, and it will be interesting to see the training regimen Yukihiro Kato puts him through leading up to the first Saturday in May as Japanese training practices are often quite different than those done in the United States. Expect this horse to show good early speed as the international runners often do so long as they break out of the gate cleanly.

Name: Luxor Cafe
Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Pedigree: Sire – American Pharoah Dam – Mary’s Follies (More Than Ready)
Overview: The official Japanese entrant to the Kentucky Derby (G1) has never raced outside of his native country. In recent years we have seen Japanese runners like Derma Sotogake and Forever Young go through the Middle East to qualify, but that was not the case with this Noriyuki Hori trainee. The four-time winner certainly has the foundation to be a major player having debuted last summer while earning six career starts. He has won three straight stakes races taking the Kurochiku Sho, the Hyacinth Stakes, and the Fukuryu Stakes leading up to his trip to Kentucky. The Hyacinth Stakes is particularly noteworthy has the fifth-place finisher in that race was eventual UAE Derby (G2) winner Admire Daytona. Additionally, the third-place finisher in the Hyacinth Stakes, Don in the Mood, came back to run third again in the UAE Derby (G2). His final time in the Fukuryu Stakes does lead to some questions about whether he is up to the task, but he is a very useful running style as he prefers to track the pace from a forward mid-pack position. Unlikely many of these runners, he is not a speedball up front nor a deep closer in the back. It is possible he gets the right trip, but how he handles the travel and takes to the surface at Churchill Downs are huge unknown questions.