BET CHURCHILL DOWNS

CHURCHILL DOWNS TRACK STATS

Throughout the Churchill Downs Spring meet, Matthew DeSantis from NYRA Bets will provide updated weekly track trends.

What are Track Trends?

Track trends provide two levels of data for bettors and handicappers. First, it analyzes how frequently favorites are winning different levels of races as well as looking at how favorites perform on different surfaces and distances. Second, they analyze how different running styles (leaders, trackers, closers) perform on different surfaces and distances to have the ideal winning trip.

Obviously starting Track Stats at the beginning of the Churchill Downs Spring Meet, the sample sizes will be rather small, which can cause statistical variation from week-to-week during such a brief meet. However, Track Stats can still give you a quick snapshot for how the meet is going. Due to the distinctiveness of the two-year-old races, those will be disaggregated in their own category for winning trip analysis due to the shorter distance.

If you scroll to the bottom of the page, you will get some more historical trend analysis for the last three Churchill Downs Spring Meets.

Use the data below to help identify helpful trends for handicapping and betting through two weeks of the Churchill Downs Spring Meet.

Post Time Favorite Analysis

Overall, post time favorites in races are winning at a 33.8% rate through two weeks of the Churchill Downs Spring meet. Looking beyond just favorites, 67.6% of winners during the Churchill Downs Spring meet have been 4/1 or lower at post time. Meanwhile, 13.2% of winners have been 10/1 or higher come post time.

From a betting standpoint, a flat $2 win bet on every post time favorite would return $1.53 (-23.5% ROI) through the meet. Meanwhile, here are how favorites performed at different odds.

Average Field Size – 9.26
Average Dirt Field Size – 8.86
Average Turf Field Size – 11.07
Average OFF TURF Field Size – 7.67

Favorites By Level

• Maiden Special Weight race favorites – 40.0%
• Maiden Claiming race favorites – 33.3%
• Claiming race favorites – 38.5%
• Optional Claiming race favorites – 54.5%
• Allowance race favorites – 0.0%
• Stakes race favorites – 27.3%

Dirt Races by Distance and Surface

• Dirt One-Turn favorites – 30.3%
• Dirt Two-Turn favorites – 50.0%
• Dirt 2-year-old maiden favorites – 50.0%
• Turf Sprint favorites – 50.0%
• Turf Route favorites – 10.0%
• OFF TURF Sprint favorites – 100%
• OFF TURF Route favorites – 0.0%

Winning Trips Analysis

Dirt One-Turn Winners (n=33)

• 30.3% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 57.6% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at the ½ mile mark.
• 12.1% have come from more than 3 lengths back at the ½ mile mark.

Dirt Two-Turn Winners (n=16)

• 25.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 50.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 25.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Two-Year-Old Dirt Sprint Maiden Winners (n=2)

• 100% have been leading at the ¼ mile mark.
• 0.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ¼ mile mark.
• 0.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ¼ mile mark.

Turf Sprint Winners (n=4)

• 75.0% have been leading at the 3/8-mile mark.
• 25.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at the 3/8-mile mark.
• 0.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at the 3/8-mile mark.

Turf Route Winners (n=10)

• 0.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 60.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 40.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

OFF TURF Sprint Winners (n=1)

• 0.0% have been leading at the 3/8-mile mark.
• 100% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at the 3/8-mile mark.
• 0.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at the 3/8-mile mark.

OFF TURF Route Winners (n=2)

• 50.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 0.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 50.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

CHURCHILL DOWNS HISTORICAL STATS

For you to have an edge playing Churchill Downs, Matthew provides some historical trends we have seen at Churchill Downs over the last few years.

TOP CHURCHILL DOWNS TRAINERS

Targeting the Spring Meet at Churchill Downs is a high priority for Kentucky-based trainers, but due to the number of major graded stakes races, we see trainers from all over the country enter their horses in several races during the Churchill Downs Spring Meet. Below you can see some of the top trainers in terms of starts, win percentage, and percentage of entries that hit the board.

The number that really pops off the screen is Brad Cox’s winning percentage dwarfing everyone else as he’s won over 28% of his entries during the last three Churchill Downs Spring Meets while also having the third most entries. Cox’s rise to prominence has taken place over the last decade but has really taken over the last five years. He had a few significant Kentucky Derby contenders (Catching Freedom, Just a Touch, and Encino) as well as a couple of Kentucky Oaks contenders (Tarifa and Gin Gin).

However, note the success of trainers Brendan Walsh and Joe Sharp. Neither are household names like Asmussen, Cox, Pletcher, or Brown, but both are winning over 23% of their entries and Greg Foley has over half his horses finishing in the Top 3. Despite trainer Norm Casse having a rough 2023 Spring Meet at Churchill Downs, which brought his winning percentage down, he is another trainer who consistently turns out live horses during the meet with the second highest WPS% of the group with 56.3% of his runners hitting the board.

While trainers like Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher, and Bill Mott are synonymous with the Kentucky Derby and some of the big races during the beginning of the Churchill Downs Spring Meet, their overall starts are lower as they tend to start entering a lot of their horses in New York during this stretch. Make note of when they do decide to enter a horse after Kentucky Derby weekend as it will feel very intentional.