Keeneland Week 1 Track Stats
KEENELAND TRACK STATS
Throughout the Fall Meet at Santa Anita Park, Matthew DeSantis from NYRA Bets will provide updated weekly track trends. Get the latest stats updated through 10/6/24.
WHAT ARE TRACK TRENDS?
Track trends provide two levels of data for bettors and handicappers. First, it analyzes how frequently favorites are winning different levels of races as well as looking at how favorites perform on different surfaces and distances. Second, they analyze how different running styles (leaders, trackers, closers) perform on different surfaces and distances to have the ideal winning trip.
Obviously starting Track Stats at the beginning of the Keeneland Fall Meet, the sample sizes will be rather small, which can cause statistical variation from week-to-week during such a brief meet. However, Track Stats can still give you a quick snapshot for how the meet is going.
Use the data below to help identify helpful trends for handicapping and betting through the first week of the Keeneland Spring meet.
POST TIME FAVORITE ANALYSIS
Overall, post time favorites are winning at a 38.7% rate during three weeks at Keeneland Fall. Looking beyond just favorites, 74.2% of winners have been 4/1 or lower at post time. Meanwhile, 12.9% of winners have been 10/1 or higher come post time.
From a betting standpoint, a flat $2 win bet on every post time favorite would return $1.98 (-1.0% ROI) during the meet at Keeneland Fall. Meanwhile, here are how favorites performed at different odds.
| Post Time Favorite Odds | Count | Win % | Top 3 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below even money | 3 | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| 1/1 to 9/5 | 15 | 40.0% | 73.3% |
| 2/1 to 3/1 | 12 | 41.7% | 50.0% |
| Higher than 3/1 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Field Size
Average Field Size – 9.68
Average Dirt Field Size – 8.44
Average Turf Field Size – 11.38
Favorites by Level
- Maiden Special Weight race favorites – 25.0%
- Maiden Claiming race favorites – 33.3%
- Claiming race favorites – 0.0%
- Optional Claiming race favorites – 100%
- Allowance race favorites – 50.0%
- Stakes race favorites – 36.4%
Dirt Races by Distance and Surface
- Dirt Sprint favorites – 46.2%
- Dirt Route favorites – 40.0%
- Turf Sprint favorites – 25.0%
- Turf Route favorites – 33.3%
Winning Trips Analysis
Dirt Sprint Winners (n=13)
- 46.2% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 38.4% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at the ½ mile mark.
- 15.4% have come from more than 3 lengths back at the ½ mile mark.
Dirt Route Winners (n=5)
- 60.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 20.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 20.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.
Turf Sprint Winners (n=4)
- 50.0% have been leading at the 3/8-mile mark.
- 25.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at the 3/8-mile mark.
- 25.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at the 3/8-mile mark.
Turf Route Winners (n=9)
- 22.2% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 22.2% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 55.6% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.
Check out our Keeneland HQ for Free PPs, promotions & more!