TRACK STATS

Expert handicapper Matthew DeSantis offers you a glimpse into track statistics during the Aqueduct meet, week by week. Check back as we continually update with more track stats!

AQUEDUCT TRACK STATS

Jump into betting Aqueduct with our weekly updates on track trends, statistics, and betting insights. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to the scene, our goal is to provide you with the data and strategies you need to become a better bettor.

Our insights are designed to help you gain an advantage, by informing your betting decisions. Whether you're interested in Maiden Special Weight races, Claiming races, Stakes races, or prefer turf or dirt surfaces, we've got you covered. Discover trends that can shape your handicapping and betting strategies.

WHAT ARE TRACK TRENDS?

Track trends provide two levels of data for bettors and handicappers. First, it analyzes how frequently favorites are winning different levels of races as well as looking at how favorites perform on different surfaces and distances. Second, they analyze how different running styles (leaders, trackers, closers) perform on different surfaces and distances to have the ideal winning trip.

We are starting over for Track Stats as we kick off the 2024 Spring Meet at Aqueduct as dynamics are changing from most of the fall and winter as we are starting turf racing on April 20 and will be getting slightly different field dynamics as several trainers bring horses back to New York after temporarily moving them to Florida for the winter.

Please note that if you scroll toward the bottom of the page, you can see the combined Fall and Winter Aqueduct Meet Track Stats that might be helpful for you until there are larger sample sizes for the races run during the Spring Meet.

Use the data below to help identify helpful trends for handicapping and betting through the first week of the Aqueduct Spring meet.

POST TIME FAVORITE ANALYSIS

Track Stats will initially only include dirt racing stats but will begin to include turf racing statistics once the turf course opens again on April 20.

Overall, post time favorites in races are winning at a 42.9% rate through the first week of the Aqueduct Spring meet.

From a betting standpoint, a flat $2 win bet on every post time favorite would return $1.84 (-8% ROI) through the meet. Meanwhile, here are how favorites performed at different odds.

Post Time Favorite OddsCountWin%Top 3%
Below even money1070.0%80.0%
1/1 to 9/51735.3%76.5%
2/1 to 3/1825.0%62.5%
Higher than 3/100.0 %0.0 %

Average Field Size – 6.77 Dirt Races by Level

  • Maiden Special Weight race favorites – 57.1%
  • Maiden claiming race favorites – 0.0%
  • Claiming race favorites – 57.1%
  • Optional Claiming race favorites – 0.0%
  • Allowance race favorites – 25.0%
  • Stakes race favorites – 40.0%

Dirt Races by Distance

  • Dirt One-turn Sprint favorites – 42.1%
  • Dirt One-turn Mile favorites – 38.5%
  • Dirt Two-turn favorites – 66.7%

WINNING TRIPS ANALYSIS

Dirt One-Turn Sprint Winners (n=19)

  • 36.8% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
  • 52.7% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
  • 10.5% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Dirt One-Turn Mile Winners (n=13)

  • 38.5% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
  • 38.4% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
  • 23.1% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.1

Dirt Two-Turn Winners (n=3)

  • 0.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
  • 66.7% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
  • 33.3% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

FALL/WINTER TRACK STATS

Post Time Favorite Analysis

Since turf racing has commenced for the winter months, Track Stats will only include dirt racing stats for the Aqueduct meet until turf racing starts again in the spring.

Overall, post time favorites in dirt races are winning at a 34.6% rate during 21 weeks of the Aqueduct meet.

From a betting standpoint, a flat $2 win bet on every post time favorite in a dirt race would return $1.61 (-19.5% ROI) through the meet. Meanwhile, here are how dirt race favorites performed at different odds.

Post Time Favorite OddsCountWin%Top 3%
Below even money14153.2%83.0%
1/1 to 9/532731.8%73.4%
2/1 to 3/115324.2%55.6%
Higher than 3/140.0 %75.0%

Average Dirt Field Size – 7.17 Dirt Races by Level

  • Maiden Special Weight race favorites – 33.0%
  • Maiden claiming race favorites – 40.8%
  • Claiming race favorites – 32.0%
  • Optional Claiming race favorites – 31.1%
  • Allowance race favorites – 32.1%
  • Stakes race favorites – 45.8%

Dirt Races by Distance

  • Dirt One-turn Sprint favorites – 33.2%
  • Dirt One-turn Mile favorites – 39.7%
  • Dirt Two-turn favorites – 25.5%

Winning Trips Analysis

Dirt One-Turn Sprint Winners (n=376)

  • 39.1% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
  • 44.9% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
  • 16.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Dirt One-Turn Mile Winners (n=194)

  • 30.9% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
  • 55.2% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
  • 13.9% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.1

Dirt Two-Turn Winners (n=55)

  • 23.6% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
  • 61.8% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
  • 14.6% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Dirt Sprint Winners

Wet TrackFast TrackOverall
Leading at 1/2 mile mark44.237.1%
Tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at 1/2 mile mark35.6%48.5%
Closing from more than 3 lengths at ½ mile mark20.2%14.4%

Dirt One-Turn Mile Winner

Wet TrackFast TrackOverall
Leading at 1/2 mile mark28.1%32.1%
Tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at 1/2 mile mark50.9%56.9%
Closing from more than 3 lengths at ½ mile mark21.0%11.0%

Dirt Route Winners

Wet TrackFast TrackOverall
Leading at 1/2 mile mark25.0%23.1%
Tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at 1/2 mile mark50.0%66.6%
Closing from more than 3 lengths at ½ mile mark25.0%10.3%

EXPLORE MORE TRACK STATS

Gulfstream Track Stats

Expert handicapper Matthew DeSantis offers you a glimpse into track statistics during the Gulfstream Park meet

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