Saratoga Week 2 Track Stats
Throughout the Saratoga meet, NYRA Bets handicapper Matthew DeSantis will provide updated weekly track stats. This year, racing started a week early at the Spa as the July 4th Racing Festival was held there, so get a head start on Opening Day by diving into Track Stats
What are Track Stats?
Track Stats provide two levels of data for bettors and handicappers. First, it analyzes how frequently favorites are winning different levels of races as well as looking at how favorites perform at different distances. Second, they analyze how different running styles (leaders, trackers, closers) perform to have the ideal winning trip.
Use the data below to help identify helpful trends for handicapping and betting through the first 2 weeks of racing at Saratoga. Obviously, as the number of races increases, so will the reliability of the statistical trends we see throughout the meet.
Post Time Favorite Analysis
Overall, post time favorites are winning at a 31.4% rate during the first week at Saratoga. Looking beyond just favorites, 64.0% of winners have been 4/1 or lower at post time. Meanwhile, 10.5% of winners have been 10/1 or higher come post time.
From a betting standpoint, a flat $2 win bet on every post time favorite would return $1.49 (-24.5% ROI) during the meet at Saratoga. Meanwhile, here are how favorites performed at different odds.
| Post Time Favorite Odds | Count | Win % | Top 3 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below even money | 15 | 53.3% | 93.3% |
| 1/1 to 9/5 | 47 | 29.8% | 74.5% |
| 2/1 to 3/1 | 24 | 20.8% | 58.3% |
| Higher than 3/1 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
Average Dirt Field Size – 6.96
Average Turf Field Size – 7.68
Average OFF TURF Field Size – 6.31
Average overall Field Size – 7.09
Favorites by Level
- Maiden Special Weight race favorites – 26.3%
- Maiden Claiming race favorites – 66.7%
- Claiming race favorites – 16.7%
- Optional Claiming race favorites – 35.3%
- Allowance race favorites – 20.0%
- Stakes race favorites – 43.8%
Favorites by Distance/Surface
- Dirt sprint favorites – 34.4%
- Dirt two-turn favorites – 38.5%
- Turf sprint favorites – 27.3%
- Turf route favorites – 29.4%
- OFF TURF sprint favorites – 25.0%
- OFF TURF chute favorites – 25.0%
- OFF TURF route favorites – 100%
Winning Trips Analysis
Dirt Sprints Winners (n=32)
- 31.3% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 46.8% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 21.9% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
Dirt Two-Turn Winners (n=13)
- 30.8% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 69.2% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 0.0% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
Mellon Turf Sprint Winners (n=11)
- 45.5% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 27.2% have been tracking within 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
- 27.3% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
Inner Turf Routes Winners (n=13)
- 38.5% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 38.4% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 23.1% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
Mellon Turf Routes Winners (n=4)
- 0.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 50.0% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 50.0% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
OFF TURF Sprint Winners (n=4)
- 25.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 50.0% have been tracking within 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
- 25.0% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
OFF TURF Chute Winners (n=8)
- 25.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 62.5% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 12.5% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
OFF TURF Route Winners (n=1)
- 100% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 0.0% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 0.0% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.