Del Mar Breeders' Cup Track Stats
Del Mar is hosting the Breeders’ Cup for the fourth time since 2017. To prepare for the 14 Breeders’ Cup races taking place on Friday, October 31 and Saturday, November 1, NYRA Bets handicapper Matthew DeSantis dives into the Track Stats for the previous three renditions of the Breeders’ Cup that took place at Del Mar in 2017, 2021, and 2024.
What are Track Stats?
Track Stats provide two levels of data for bettors and handicappers. First, it analyzes how frequently favorites are winning different levels of races as well as looking at how favorites perform in different types of races. Second, they analyze how different running styles (leaders, trackers, closers) perform to have the ideal winning trip.
Use the data below to help identify helpful trends for handicapping and betting through three years of Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar (41 race in total).
Post Time Favorite Analysis
| # of races | # of winning favorites | % of winning favorites | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 41 | 12 | 29.3% |
| Juvenile races | 14 | 6 | 42.9% |
| Older races | 27 | 6 | 22.2% |
| Dirt races | 21 | 5 | 23.8% |
| Dirt sprint races | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Dirt route races | 15 | 5 | 33.3% |
| Turf races | 20 | 7 | 35.0% |
| Turf sprint races | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
| Turf route races | 15 | 6 | 40.0% |
Average OVERALL Field Size – 11.32
Average JUVENILE Field Size – 11.86
Average OLDER Field Size – 11.04
Average DIRT Field Size – 9.95
Average overall Field Size – 12.75
Winning Trips Analysis
Dirt Sprints Winners (n=6)
- 0.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 50.0% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 50.0% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
Dirt Route Winners (n=15)
- 46.7% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 13.3% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 40.0% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
Turf Sprint Winners (n=5)
- 40.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 0.0% have been tracking within 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
- 60.0% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
Turf Routes Winners (n=15)
- 0.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 33.3% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 66.7% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
International Success
A significant part of the Breeders’ Cup is that it is an opportunity for international horses to compete against North American horses. Often the most significant international runners are European turf horses, but we have seen a rise in Japanese runners the last several years. Below is a chart showing success of international entries at winning Breeders’ Cup races.
Percentage of Breeders’ Cup Race Won by Continent
| Overall | Dirt | Turf | |
|---|---|---|---|
| European | 26.8% | 0.0% | 55.0% |
| Japanese | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% |
| Latin American* | 2.4% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
* Counting Full Serano as a Latin American runner as he was bred in Argentina and spent most of his career there prior to coming to North America for a couple of races before last year’s victory in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1).