Longshot of the Day: Race 6 at Horseshoe Indy
Track: Horseshoe Indianapolis
Race 6: $36K MSW going 6 furlongs on dirt for 3+ IN-bred fillies and mares
Post Time: 4:45 PM ET
Horse: #3 No Self Control (6/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 9/2 or higher.
A large maiden field over a sloppy track at Horseshoe Indianapolis? This is like catnip for me and I will also attack these types of races for a price. There are a few runners that intrigue me in here who I think have a chance to upset the very deserving favorite #8 Tiger Jumper (5/2) who nearly graduated in debut and could easily do so today. However, the track conditions and a deeper field of competitors makes me want to take a shot against her. Ultimately, I landed on No Self Control who is second back from the typical season layoff most Indiana-bred runners have over the winter. The daughter of Flameaway has shown steady progression in her three career starts based off her Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) as she exits her last race with a career-best 39 BSF. What is particularly promising are her running lines as she is showing more early speed with each start and last time out, she got to the front to set the early pace before fading to fifth. Giving way late off such a long layoff is excusable and you would expect that she will come back in better condition in her second start, particularly when you see she got in a 36.3 second three-furlong bullet work on May 17 to prepare for this start. Wednesday will be her second time with Lasix, and I believe her pedigree should ensure she will not have issues handling a wet track with the Scat Daddy and Sky Mesa influence on both sides of her family tree.
If you’re looking for a bigger price, #2 Gold Delight (10/1) could be of interest to you because she might be a wet track specialist as her career-best BSF came over a sloppy sealed track last year where she earned a 48 BSF, which stacks up against all the top contenders. The biggest concern is whether she fires off the bench having not run since last November. Trainer Robert Gorham has traditionally done well with 180-270-day layoffs as he has won at a 19% clip over the last five years but has not had as much success lately. Still, he knows how to get a horse ready off the bench, but I do not necessarily love her work pattern leading up to debut as she only works once every other week. It feels like she might need a race under her belt before she fires her best, but I do like she got work over a muddy track and seemed to appreciate the conditions. She is getting Lasix for the first time, and I will be interested to see how she gets bet once things open up. Finally, she’s not much of a longshot, but Gold Delight’s stablemate, #11 Kippy Too (5/1), seems to be a very live debut runner. Her dam, Mildred, produced a first out winner with her only other raced foal and she has been working fantastically in the mornings for Gorham who has seen her put in some strong gate works. The only red flag is that she has only had two recent workouts to get her ready for her debut as she did not work from November until March and then took off in April before resuming with a pair of workouts on May 2 and May 15. Still, there is clearly speed and talent there, which is always a dangerous combination in maiden races.