Longshot of the Day: Race 1 at Horseshoe Indy

Track: Horseshoe Indianapolis

Race 1: $36K MSW going 1 mile on turf for 3+ IN-bred fillies and mares

Post Time: 2:10 PM ET

Horse: #9 Fervent Prayer (6/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 5/1 or higher.

With weather forcing them off the turf at Horseshoe Indianapolis, it is best to target the races originally carded for the dirt for a price as scratches in the turf races will result in huge disparities between morning line and post time prices. However, Fervent Prayer should maintain good value in an 11-horse maiden race to kick off the card. The three-year-old son of Take Charge Indy appears to have the pedigree for first-out success given that his sire produces 19% winners from his offspring who debut at 3 and up. That is an astonishingly high percentage with a decent sample size. Typically, sires have declining first-out success when a horse debuts later as it often indicates they have taken a longer time to develop, might not be as naturally talented, or faced setbacks on the way to the track. The all-sire average for winning first-out with 3+ runners is 9%, so seeing the success of the offspring of Take Charge Indy is promising. Additionally, Fervent Prayer’s dam side pedigree is outstanding for immediate success as K C’s Songofprayer has produced two first-out winners from five raced foals while having another one hit the board in debut. Overall, her offspring have won 24% of their races including a stakes winner (Flatter Hymn) so she has been an incredibly productive broodmare. On the track, the horse had been working well at Tampa Bay Downs in March and April before having a brief gap and resuming work at Horseshoe Indy the last couple of weeks where he continued to look sharp in the mornings. Trainer Anthony Granitz might only be hitting at a 7% clip this year, but over the last five years he has been winning 19% of his dirt MSW races where his runners are making their debut. It gives me confidence when you pair up a solid first-out pedigree with a trainer who has success getting horses to fire first time out.