Longshot of the Day: Race 5 at Belmont At The Big A

Track: Belmont at the Big A

Race 5: $30,000 maiden claimer going 6 ½ furlongs on dirt for 3+ NY-bred fillies & mares

Post Time: 3:14 PM ET

Horse: #2 Silent Sandy (8/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 6/1 or higher.

I do not love that my pick for today moves over to the inside rail with the scratch of #1 Dynamitendiamonds, but I still think Silent Sandy has a lot to like at a bit of a price. The Gregory Sacco trainee has not made much of an impression in three career starts as a two-year-old, but she is coming off the bench and making her first start of her three-year-old season after a five-month layoff. She is dropping down in class and Sacco is taking the blinkers off, which has been a ridiculous positive move for him in the past, particularly in maiden claiming races. Over the last five years, Sacco’s maiden claiming entries have won at a 32% clip (7-22) when he takes the blinkers off, and they have a $2.25 ROI. Compare that to Sacco’s overall stats during that same time where he is a 16% trainer with a $1.45 ROI. Additionally, the daughter of Thousand Words picks up jockey Manny Franco for the first time and the combination of blinkers off, Franco on the mount, and the inside rail now gives me even more confidence they will be sending to the front. Look for this horse to show significantly better speed and there is not much in this race that scares me, so if a horse can get out up on the front end, they can be dangerous. In the past, Silent Sandy has shown zero early speed, so it is hard to judge how much running she will do when she’s engaged in the flow of the race. I like her chances to do that today at a bit of a price.