Longshot of the Day: Race 7 at Keeneland

Track: Keeneland

Race 7: $350,000 Commonwealth Stakes (G3) going 7 furlongs on dirt for 4+

Post Time: 4:14 PM ET

Horse: #10 Extra Anejo (8/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 5/1 or higher.

Today’s Commonwealth Stakes is a competitive race and presents an opportunity for value with a horse coming off the bench that has dazzled talent in the pace. Extra Anejo was a horse that had big expectations following his debut victory, going seven furlongs (today’s distance) at Keeneland (today’s track) where he earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure and winning by over nine lengths while running off Lasix. He has won three races since, all of which have been $100K optional claimers, but he has failed to get the job done against stakes competition. However, I think it is fair to draw a line through two of those efforts as they were over a mile, and I believe this horse is best going one turn. His worst effort to date was in the Hanshin Stakes at Churchill Downs where he faded badly in a one-turn mile, though he was pressured early in that race. Trainer Steve Asmussen’s placement of this horse in today’s stakes race speaks to the level of confidence he has in this runner and despite having great early speed, he has shown the ability to win by coming from off the pace. The most promising feature of Extra Anejo is that he can run a big race off the bench. He won in debut; he finished second while coming back from a nine-month layoff and then won coming back from a 10-month layoff. He can clearly fire in this spot and the $1.35 million son of Into Mischief still has some serious expectations as he makes is five-year-old debut. I also love the work pattern he displays as it is the typical work pattern Asmussen uses when his horses are sitting on a big effort, which is a bullet work two back and then a slower maintenance work leading up to the race. Extra Anejo fired off a 59.3 second bullet workout on March 20 down at Fair Grounds before having an easy 50.3 second four-furlong work at Churchill Downs leading up to the race. From a race standpoint, he draws well to the outside and picks up reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat for the mount. At 8/1 on the morning line, he is a horse that provides the possibility of upside potential and could be gotten at a decent price.