Longshot of the Day: Race 6 at Gulfstream Park
Track: Gulfstream Park
Race 6: $94K MSW going 1 mile on turf for 3YO fillies
Post Time: 2:49 PM ET
Horse: #4 Capturing (8/1 morning line). Use as a win bet at 5/1 or higher.
A large and competitive field of 12 maidens going long on the turf always is an opportunity for value, which is why it is where I landed for my longshot of the day. Morning line favorite #7 Celtic Motif (9/5) is making her North American debut for trainer Brendan Walsh having not run since October. She is G3-placed after finishing third in the Staffordstown Stud Stakes (G3) going a mile over soft ground at Curragh. She has been working consistently at Palm Meadows for Walsh and could be a monster. If she plummets from her 9/5 morning line price, then the word might be out around the track that she’s the real deal. Still, even for a trainer like Walsh who is outstanding bringing horses over and getting them to fire first out in a new country, I’m willing to play against this one. Capturing is the rare instance of finding a horse trained by Todd Pletcher and jockeyed by Irad Ortiz Jr. that will go off at a bit of a price. The daughter of More Than Ready was a modest $85,000 purchase in the Keeneland September sale in 2023 but has been training nicely over the last couple of months for Pletcher at Palm Beach Downs. The January 18 gate work really impressed me as she worked in the company of Disruptor who is a $1.15 million Gun Runner colt who debuted on the undercard of the Holy Bull and finished third while earning an 81 Beyer Speed Figure. The workout left a favorable impression because she did not break as alertly as Disruptor and was not as aggressively ridden out of the gate but was able to hit a good cruising speed and was edging ahead of him at times. For a horse that is debuting on turf, it was promising to see such a strong work on turf, and it also showed the horse has good recovery speed should she breaking a half step slow. On Sunday, jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the mount and while there is not overwhelming turf pedigree, the granddam was a graded stakes winning synthetic router, so you would hope some of that translates to the grass. More Than Ready is a solid turf route sire (13%) and while he is only slightly above average churning out first-out maiden winners, you figure the combination of his influence with the mare being by Curlin would make this one love the distance. You rarely see these connections at a price, so perhaps it is an indication there is not much buzz around the horse, but Ortiz Jr. gives some of the best rides in maiden races and Pletcher is always good at getting them ready first out. Plenty to like with this one if you want to try and beat the heavy favorite.