Longshot of the Day: Race 8 at Aqueduct

Track: Aqueduct

Race 8: $25K maiden claimer going 1 mile on dirt for 3YO NY-bred fillies

Post Time: 4:08 PM ET

Horse: #3 Ah Ca Ira (12/1 morning line). Use as a win bet at 8/1 or higher.

Happy 2025 and we hope you start off the year in a winning way here at NYRA Bets! Let’s try to find a price in the bailout race on New Year’s Day at Aqueduct. There is not much in this race that really scares you as your morning line favorite is #7 Honey in the Bank (7/2) who lost her previous two state-bred maiden claiming $40K races by a combined 29 ¾ lengths. Yes, she’s getting a slight class drop and I like trainer Horacio De Paz, but I’m playing against her. Ah Ca Ira is an interesting alternative at a big price. On the face of things, her debut performance was abysmal as she broke at the back of a 12-horse field and finished 18 lengths behind the leaders. However, she had a nasty stumble right out of the gate and the race was over for her before it even started. I give her credit for at least keeping on and passing horses toward the end. I also like that the third-place finisher that day, Infastuation, came back to win next time out at this maiden claiming $25K level. While Ah Ca Ira was 11/1 in debut, she did attract at least some betting interest as she was the sixth choice on the board in the 12-horse field for trainer Jorge Delgado. Speaking of Delgado, he has been successful at getting horses ready in their second career start as he is 20% winning over the last five years in a second career start and has had several second start maiden winners over the last year. The pedigree is also there for Ah Ca Ira as she is the half to Brocknardini who won impressively on the turf in debut and is a stakes winner. She is also the half to Sweet Fury who finished second in debut, so there is some precocity for early success in the female family. The daughter of Maximum Security is getting Lasix for the first time and if she can get off to a decent start on Wednesday then I think you will see what she can really do.

Finally, how are you going to bet against a filly whose grandsire is New Year’s Day on New Year’s Day? To be clear, I do not advocate betting horses based on name, color, number, or whether the silks match the saddle towel*, but this does seem like the stars might align for her.

*It is a NYRA Bets tradition to bet the 'silks match the saddle towel' and Matthew DeSantis does not speak for the rest of the NYRA Bets team