Gun Runner & Untapable Stakes Picks
Fair Grounds, Race 7, Gun Runner Stakes, Post Time-4:00 PM ET
A short field of five for this early Kentucky Derby prep race at Fair Grounds. Might be hard to find a price in this group, but I will go with #3 Magnitude (2/1) as my top selection for trainer Steve Asmussen with jockey Jose Ortiz aboard. Asmussen is off to a strong start at Fair Grounds (25% winning) and Ortiz is flourishing in The Big Easy winning 35% of his mounts. The son of Not This Time also had the best foundation of the group having won going two turns last time out at Churchill Downs where he briefly stalked the pace before taking over around the far turn. While he faltered going a mile in the Iroquois (G3), it was promising to see Asmussen give him a brief freshening before stretching out to two turns and he passed that test easily. His pedigree of being sired by Not This Time out of a Bernardini mare points to distance, though he is the first winner the dam has produced from four raced foals. A horse that could be an even better price is #1 Built (7/2) for trainer Wayne Catalano. He debuted in the race won by East Avenue at Ellis Park and all that horse did was go onto win the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) in his next start. Meanwhile, the son of Hard Spun won next time out at Keeneland stretching out to seven furlongs and winning professionally while stalking the early pace and pulling away late. Catalano does not have a big barn, so you know a horse like this will have all his attention in training and he’s been working out nicely between Keeneland and Fair Grounds. While he is trying two turns for the first time, the combination of the Hard Spun influence up top with his dam being by Curlin makes you think the stretch out will not be an issue. He will be able to save ground from the inside rail and should be able to sit either on the lead or in a comfortable pocket trip. It is hard not to mention #5 Admiral Dennis (8/5) for trainer Brad Cox who has won 33% of two-year-old dirt stakes races at Fair Grounds over the last five years with his horses hitting the board at a 78% rate. His entry this year is sired by Constitution and out of a stakes-winning Union Rags mare. He broke his maiden last time out running a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs and showed good patience to track the early pace before taking over late. Additionally, the race has already produced a next out winner who had a 17-point jump in his Beyer Speed Figure. Admiral Dennis’s 83 Beyer Speed Figure from that maiden breaking effort is the highest last out figure in the field, but he will have to pass the two-turn test on Saturday. Cox horses are rarely discounted, but he does sometimes perform a little better with fillies than colts in these spots though he is formidable with both. It is hard to recommend someone spread beyond two horses in a five-horse field for their horizontal wagers, so the question is whether you are willing to leave a Cox runner off your ticket.
Fair Grounds, Race 11, Untapable Stakes, Post Time-6:00 PM ET
When we are talking about two-year-old fillies I feel like you must start with trainer Brad Cox who may have the three leading contenders for the 2025 Kentucky Oaks in Immersive, Good Cheer, and Muhimma who are all coming off impressive graded stakes victories. On Saturday he has #5 California Sunset (9/2) with jockey Florent Geroux up in the irons. All those two have done the last two years at Fair Grounds is win a laughable 40% of their races. As for the filly, the daughter of Quality Road did not get the best trip in debut but made a run last to pass some horses while finishing fourth. Next time out, she passed the two-turn test as she tracked the pace and held off stubborn running Girl Math while being 2+ lengths clear of fellow Saturday foe #4 Golden Gamble (5/2). She clearly has an off-the-pace running style which could be an issue as there is not much speed in the race but expect Geroux to get this one out in a tracking trip and let her grind away in the homestretch. Cox usually positions his most promising talent down at Fair Grounds for the Oaks/Derby preps, so it speaks well to this one’s chances that he has her in this slot. One horse at a big price who could surprise is #1 Stable Currency (8/1) as she could potentially be dangerous up front while saving ground on the inside. She broke her maiden going this distance at Hawthorne by 22+ lengths and has subsequently faced some solid optional claiming company at Keeneland and Churchill Downs where she finished second and third, respectively. The question will be whether #3 Her Laugh (6/1) runs on Saturday as she is cross entered for a race on Sunday as well. If she runs here, then she is likely your early leader, but no matter what, Stable Currency should be sitting an ideal trip while saving ground. The other major contenders all prefer to come from further off the pace, so even if the daughter of Audible is sitting second to Her Laugh, she will get the jump and have first crack at a Practical Joke baby stretching out to two turns for the first time. I like her chances to outrun those morning line odds. I am notoriously never on the right side of a Kenny McPeek horse, but I do think #4 Golden Gamble (5/2) is a dangerous runner as your morning line favorite. She lost to California Sunset in debut but came back to romp next time out going two turns and winning by 9 lengths. That said, she has a very similar running style to both California Sunset and #6 Amarth (7/2) so it could just come down to who gets the best trip of the group. If there is one red flag it is the 1:05.1 five-furlong workout she registered on December 14. McPeek generally works his horses pretty fast, and she had been the model of consistency in the morning until that workout. Perhaps he knows she is fully cranked and wanted to take it slow, but that was still shockingly slow work even if you think it is just a maintenance drill. Finally, #6 Amarth (7/2) for trainer Eddie Keneally will need to get faster on the Beyer Speed Figures, but has won twice going long while beating winners, which is something the other three horses I mentioned above cannot say. The daughter of first-crop sire McKinzie has solid pedigree for the distance and might have the best early speed between the top three choices on the morning line, which means that jockey Luis Saez could have her in an ideal spot to have less to do turning for home than her primary rivals. This feels like a spread race when you are playing horizontal wagers and I would not want to leave this runner off your tickets.