Gotham Stakes (G3) Picks

Pace Scenario

There is plenty of speed in Saturday’s Gotham (G3) as you see several horses stretching out from sprinting while others are cutting back to one-turn after fading longer. Morning line favorite #6 Iron Honor (6-5) has loads of speed, but showed on debut that he does not need to be in front to win. Expect #9 Dirty Rich (10-1) to be a significant early pace factor as he has speed to wire the field going 5 ½ furlongs and would certainly be quick enough to get to the front against this group. Horses like #1 Balboa (5-1), #3 Crown the Buckeye (4-1), and #7 Exhibition Only (15-1) also have outstanding early speed and could be pressing the pace or making a play for the lead should they catch a flyer out of the gate. It will be important to see how the track plays at Aqueduct on Thursday and Friday after New York experienced major winter weather over the weekend, as previously, there had been a significant inside speed bias.

Analysis

The clear horse to beat in this race is Chad Brown’s debut winner #6 Iron Honor (6-5), who dazzled in his first start sprinting six furlongs while being assigned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF). What impressed me about the maiden-breaking effort was his maturity as the favorite in the race, as Crossingthechannel caught a flyer out of the gate and was clear of the field by open lengths within the first 100 yards. Rather than panic, jockey Manny Franco patiently moved Iron Honor into second position and started to give chase. Around the turn, Frano shook the reins and asked Iron Honor to get the horse ahead of him, and the son of Nyquist responded by drawing even and then pulling past his rival. What flattered the effort more was that Crossingthechannel won his next start, as did third-place finisher Right to Party, who finds himself entered in the Gotham (G3) as well. Stretching out to a mile should be no problem as Iron Honor is out of a Blame mare, Orencia, who won going two turns on the turf, not to mention Blame is an outstanding distance influence as a broodmare sire. Saturday’s race will pose some challenges as he is facing off with a speedy group of challengers who could heat things up early. It’s beneficial that Iron Honor breaks on the outer half of the field, and Manny Franco should be able to get him placed forwardly, but does not need to worry about getting to the lead. While others have stronger resumes than the untested Brown runner, none have shown the potential he flashed in his debut.

I believe #2 Hammond (5-1) is an intriguing horse to pair with Iron Honor in exactas, as it’s possible the Saffie Joseph Jr. shipper might get overlooked by the betting public, but has plenty of things to list. While he is stretching out to a mile for the first time, his sire, Charlatan, has seen his first crop heat up in 2026, with his three-year-olds winning at a 24% clip during the first two months of the year. Additionally, Charlatan is a sire that should get you a mile, though Hammond’s dam, Sweet Kisses, was a sprinter, and her first foal (Donut God) was a sprinter as well. Still, his running style of coming from off the pace and finishing strong at the wire would make you think he can handle a one-turn mile. What I like most about Hammond is that he’s gotten faster with each career start, as his BSFs have gone from 50 to 64 to 71 to 84. His last race was in the Swale, which I believe we will look back on as a productive race, as I believe the winner, Solitude Dude, is a serious one-turn horse, and I am also high on the runner-up, Class President, this weekend in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park. Hammond didn’t get the best start that day and was chasing lone speed but showed interest and improved his position to finish third. I believe he can put himself in the group tracking the pace and make a move in the stretch to challenge for the lead. I am not sure he is good enough to win this race, but I believe he is good enough to contend for a minor award and should be an honest price.

A horse I believe will take some money is #1 Balboa (6-1) for trainer Brittany Russell. The former Bob Baffert trainee came over to Russell in Fall 2025 and dazzled in his first start for the new barn at Laurel Park before running an admirable third in the Remsen (G2) behind Paladin and Renegade, each of whom came back to win stakes races in their next start. However, next time out, Balboa disappointed as the odds-on favorite in the Jerome Stakes as he was overtaken in the stretch by My World while traveling a mile over the same Aqueduct track. My World came back to run a forgettable race in the Saudi Derby (G3), but I won’t hold that against Balboa, given the international travel and distinct main track surface over there. On the track, Balboas has good speed and will need to show it from the inside rail with jockey Sheldon Russell aboard, who takes over for Manny Franco, who opted to ride Iron Honor. While Balboa has good speed and seems well-bred to handle the distance as he is a Not This Time out of a War Front mare, he appeared to be shortening his stride a bit in the Jerome Stakes, going a mile. Additionally, his early speed might be mitigated by a horse like #9 Dirty Rich (10-1), who is a 5 ½ furlong specialist with loads of speed on the outside. Plus, Iron Honor might even show enough early foot to get to the front. Still, Balboa has a good foundation and back class compared to the rest of this field and could hit the board on that alone.

While several horses are stretching out for the first time, #3 Crown the Buckeye (4/1) is cutting back to one turn, and that should be beneficial for the Ohio-bred son of Yaupon for trainer Mike Maker. You don’t often find horses on the Derby trail that start their careers at Belterra Park, but Crown the Buckeye came out of a debut runner-up finish to win consecutive starts against fellow Ohio-breds at Thistledown and Mahoning Valley before stepping up against open company in the Gun Runner and Lecomte (G3). His Gun Runner Stakes effort was quite respectable as he set a strong early pace, going 46.3 seconds to the half, and managed to hold on for third place while getting nabbed at the wire by the Cherie DeVaux duo of Golden Tempo and Mesquite. However, when he ran back in the Lecomte (G3) going the same distance, he faded badly from the lead to finish a distant eighth. Theoretically, cutting back a half-furlong and getting a one-turn configuration should be a benefit, but he faded so badly, while running slower up front, in the Lecomte (G3), that I wonder about his ability to bounce back here. Much like Balboa, he has good early speed but might not be able to contend with some of the sprinters in Saturday’s field. However, he has come from off-the-pace going 1 1/16 miles against stakes company, but again, those were Ohio-breds, and this will be a tougher spot. Still, it gives jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. a few options. It’s also notable that Santana Jr. rode Balboa to his third-place finish in the Remsen (G2) and opted to stick with Crown the Buckeye, whom he rode last time out when the horse faded badly.