Futurity Stakes (G3) Picks

A competitive renewal of The Futurity for two-year-old turf sprinters. I followed jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and landed on #1 Gate to Wire (4/1) who, despite his name, won in debut with a stalking trip. Expect Ortiz Jr. to be aggressive out of the gate with this horse due to the post position, but I think he can secure another ideal trip either in the pocket or going straight to the front if no one else is pressing the matter. I am slightly concerned about second-out regression with this runner as he appeared to be uncharacteristically cranked up for debut for the Pletcher barn. Now, Todd Pletcher has PLENTY of great debut winners, but you rarely see them firing off consecutive bullet works leading up to their first race, which was the case with this son of Munnings. He’s had two nice conditioning works coming out of that race so I believe he will be ready to fire another big effort on Saturday. You’re getting a little bit of a price on a horse that has upside potential and attracted the top jockey in the circuit away from riding the morning line favorite (more on that later). Meanwhile, #3 Chasing Liberty (7/2) for trainer Rob Atras was a debut winner at Ellis Park after sitting an ideal stalking trip just off the pace and then stepped up to run very well next out in the Juvenile Sprint at Kentucky Downs where he was awarded first place after Under Who’s Radar was disqualified. The horse had a difficult trip that day checking multiple times but showing a lot of tenacity while handling a unique turf course that not everyone loves. Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. takes over the mount for Florent Geroux, but I do not mind that change as Santana Jr. is a good sprint jockey who knows how to get horses in an ideal position early in the race. He has also been off to a great start in New York this fall winning 23% of his mounts during the Belmont at Aqueduct meet. The horse should get the proper setup with some pace ahead of him and come running down the stretch. #5 Under Who’s Radar (5/2) isn’t under anyone’s radar now after crossing the finish line first in the Juvenile Sprint at Kentucky Downs for trainer Mike Maker. However, it is interesting that Irad Ortiz Jr., who rode the horse in debut, is not back aboard on Saturday as he opts to stick with Gate to Wire. Ortiz Jr.’s brother, Jose, rode the horse in Kentucky, but Maker switches to Kendrick Carmouche for the ride, which is not necessarily a bad thing. Carmouche is an aggressive jockey, and this horse has outstanding early speed, so expect Kendrick to put this horse on the lead to see how far he can take him. There will be some other significant pace pressure, so I would prefer a horse coming from off the pace, which is one of the reasons I will try to get past this favorite in my horizontal wagers. If you’re looking for a longshot, #6 I’m Otter Here (6/1) is an intriguing selection. Another son of Munnings won at second calling after finishing third to fellow runner Chasing Liberty in debut. He then stepped up to face stakes company going a mile at Kentucky Downs, which might have been a bridge too far. A mile at that track plays a lot longer and not every horse loves the undulating course. He gets back to a flat surface for trainer Jeff Hiles and might get overlooked on the board while his maiden-breaking race is good enough to compete. The horse is working out nicely leading up to this second stakes effort and has plenty of foundation to appreciate the cutback. He also has a versatile running style and has shown the ability to pass horses while coming from off the pace.