Doubledogdare Picks

Pace: If you were wondering where all the top fillies and mares were when watching Thorpedo Anna roll to her sixth Grade 1 victory in the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn Park, the answer is they decided it would be better to run in the Doubledogdare. Several of these runners are coming back from significant layoffs, so it is understandable they did not immediately jump into the Grade 1 waters, but looking over this field, it is apparent that Thorpedo Anna will have some competition later this summer within the Distaff Division if some of these fillies continue to progress. From a pace perspective, the race seems straightforward as #1 Just F Y I (7/2) will send from the rail and use her early speed to get to the lead under jockey Junior Alvarado who is returning from a shoulder injury that sidelined him for three weeks. Outside of that, #4 Dreaming of Mo (10/1) is the only other potential pace presence in the early stages and that is hardly a guarantee as her best efforts have come tracking the pace. All the other runners prefer to stalk and track the pace, which means Just F Y I should get things her own way up front on a speed-favoring track.

Picks: 5-1-6-7

#5 Tarifa (3/1) – With a couple of the top contenders coming back from layoffs, Brad Cox’s filly has an advantage as she already raced in 2025 in the Beholder Mile (G1) where she finished third behind a pair of serious Bob Baffert runners in undefeated Cavalieri and multi-time graded stakes winner Richie. Considering it was her first race in over three months and only her second time facing older competition, her third-place showing was respectable, and she set a career-best 91 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF). Horses generally move forward between their three- and four-year-old campaigns as they physically develop and Tarifa has every chance to move forward from that 91 BSF in her second start off the bench for a trainer who wins at a 30% in those spots over the last year. The daughter of Bernardini, who is bred and owned by Godolphin, has rarely run a bad race as she is 9-11 hitting the board with five wins. Jockey Florent Geroux should have her sitting a pocket trip behind Just F Y I and Dreaming of Mo while saving ground near the rail. While she does own a victory going gate-to-wire in the Mother Goose (G2) last year, she generally prefers tracking the pace and then making a move around the far turn and top of the stretch. She has gotten in four official workouts since the Beholder Mile (G1) and should be ready to fire a big effort on Friday at Keeneland.

#1 Just F Y I (7/2) – I vividly remember this daughter of Justify breaking her maiden in thrilling fashion at Saratoga two years ago and hearing Kentucky Oaks buzz immediately after that effort. She backed up the hype by winning the Frizette (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). Her three-year-old campaign was not as successful as she was second in the Ashland (G1) and then was runner-up to Thorpedo Anna in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). By most standards, having two Grade 1 wins and two Grade 1 runner-up finishes would be an outstanding career, but her awful performance in the Acorn (G1) where she sixth by 22 lengths led to trainer Bill Mott sending her to the bench for the rest of the year and speculation that she could be more of a one-turn horse. She came back from a nine-month layoff to run in a $75K optional claimer at Gulfstream Park going a mile where she went to the lead before fading late to eventual winner Literate. She only earned a 79 BSF and there was concern that perhaps she would not return to her juvenile form. However, it is more than understandable that she came up short off such a long layoff and Mott’s placement of her in this race speaks to his confidence in the filly. Additionally, she has recorded four works since that race including a pair of bullet workouts down at Payson Park. Mott seems to have her more cranked for this run than her debut where jockey Junior Alvarado rarely asked her for a thing, which made you believe he knew the comeback race was little more than a leg stretcher and condition builder. She should have her own way up front and the pace dynamics are in her favor. I am expecting a big step forward from her on Friday and should present terrific value if she remains near her morning line price.

#6 Candied (8/5) – The daughter of Candy Ride had her breakthrough victory at Keeneland when she won the Alcibiades (G1) as a two-year-old, but her subsequent returns to Lexington have not been as successful as she finished fourth in the Ashland (G1) and was a distant third to Idiomatic in the Spinster (G1) last fall. Trainer Todd Pletcher has not run her since finished third by over six lengths behind Thorpedo Anna in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1), but he does own a recent victory in this race with Malathaat who came off the bench to win back in 2022. Malathaat was a more accomplished filly by this point in her career, so the point is not to equate them, but to show that Pletcher can get them ready off the bench to win this race at Keeneland, though he is only 1-16 during the current Spring Meet. While I like Candied, I do not like her morning line price at all and have a hard time thinking that she will remain such a strong favorite against this salty field. Her best effort was blowing out the competition in the Lady Secret Stakes at Monmouth Park for which she earned a 99 BSF, but every other effort is like what Tarifa, Just F Y I, and Occult have run at times during their career. One thing that is obvious is that she likes distance having nearly won the Alabama (G1) last year going 1 ¼ miles, so we know stamina is no issue. While her running lines might indicate that she prefers to sit a tracking trip, she often faces shorter field sizes, so I would not be surprised to see her sitting mid-pack behind the likes of Just F Y I, Tarifa, and Dreaming of Mo. She should still get a nice trip, but it is fair to question what price you are comfortable taking for a horse coming off the bench who hasn’t won a graded stakes race since October 2023.

#7 Occult (7/2) – We have not seen the daughter of Into Mischief since last December when she finished second to Tizzy in the Sky in the Go For Wand (G3) run at a one-turn mile at Aqueduct. The Chad Brown trainee has always been better coming from off the pace, which made me believe she was best around one turn where she could get faster fractions. In a race that is unlikely to feature a strong pace, I worry about her ability to close, though she did run second to Idiomatic in last year’s Spinster (G1) at Keeneland, though she was still 6 ½ lengths behind. Her last victory also came at Monmouth Park in the Monmouth Oaks (G3) in July 2023 and she has displayed bouts of inconsistency as she has lost as the odds-on favorite three times in 2024. Certainly, 7/2 is a fairer price and Brown has been working her out very nicely down in South Florida for her 2025 debut. However, the pace and quality of the field lends some doubt about whether she will be able to get the job done. Expect jockey Flavien Prat to try and keep her close to the action in what is likely to be a clumped-up field so that she does not have too much work to do coming for home. She is a year older than the other top competitors, which could serve her well as mares often continue to progress as they get older, and many believe their five-year-old season is when they reach their peak.