Black-Eyed Susan (G2) Picks

Pace Scenario

There is not an overwhelming amount of pace in this year’s Black-Eyed Susan (G2) as #5 Braken Pappa (7-2) and #10 My Miss Mo (7-2) stand out as the fastest early fillies in the race, with few horses that can truly challenge them. Both horses have shown the ability to rate, but it seems likely the Louisiana-bred Braken Pappa will shoot for the front, with My Miss Mo happy to rate from her outside post position. With a relatively uncontested pace, it would appear to favor horses that are on or near the lead, with the deciding question being whether those runners will enjoy the nine-furlong distance. I believe some of the fillies running at the front of the second flight can get aim at the frontrunners and might appreciate the added distance of the race more than those two early pacesetters.

Analysis

Over the years, I have regularly pulled numbers to show how much trainer Kenny McPeek struggles when switching three-year-old runners off Lasix. At the time of writing this, he is 0-35 switching that age group off Lasix in graded stakes races the last five years. Overall, he is 4-68 (6%) switching a three-year-old off Lasix for any race during that time. Why do I bring all this up? I often like to isolate horses that are “stat busters” as ones who succeed even when it is not traditionally a winning move for the trainer, which brings us to #3 Holly’s Holiday (6-1). The daughter of Maxfield did zero running in her first two career starts as a juvenile at Keeneland and Churchill Downs. The future did not appear bright for her, but McPeek sent her to the bench for nearly five months, and when she came back, she immediately broke her maiden in a dead heat at Oaklawn Park. The victory came as she got Lasix for the first time and McPeek stepped her up into stakes competition in the Valley of the Vapors next time out. Switching her off Lasix in that spot felt like an obvious play against since her maiden-breaking Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) was 35 points higher than her previous best effort. However, against all odds, Holly’s Holiday won the Valley of the Vapors and became only the second filly in the last five years to win a stakes race for McPeek while switching off Lasix, with the other being Take Charge Milady, who won last year’s Martha Washington Stakes. Setting trainer stats aside, Holly’s Holiday has a lot to like. She has a natural tracking style when she runs, which should put her at the front of the second flight on Friday, giving her a first run at the leaders. From a pedigree standpoint, the distance should not be an issue as Maxfield’s have generally excelled as they’ve stretched out while her female points to stakes success. She is the half-sibling to Velocity, who won the Del Mar Oaks (G1) going nine furlongs on the turf last year. She is also the half-sibling to the horse Open Road, who is not nearly as accomplished, but did win going 1 1/8 miles in his fourth career start for trainer Brad Cox and was a stakes-placed runner going the same distance. I believe she is an improving filly who will sit the right trip behind the early pace and has shown the ability to move forward while switching off Lasix.

The early pace scenario favors frontrunners, and of the two early speed horses, I prefer #10 My Miss Mo (7-2) for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. The daughter of Uncle Mo is somewhat like Holly’s Holiday in that she did not run big speed figures as a juvenile but took a big step forward when she came back for her three-year-old campaign. While she has yet to win in 2026, both her races earned 80+ BSF, and she has been running against a better class of fillies than anyone else in the field. She started her year with a second-place finish in the Davona Dale (G2) to She Be Smooth before stretching out to two turns for the first time in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) and finishing second to Prom Queen, who went on to finish fifth in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). I believe Prom Queen’s fifth-place finish flatters My Miss Mo because she was strongly backed by the betting public going off at 6-1 odds and then proceeded to have a horrific trip at Churchill Downs. The fact that she salvaged fifth is a testament to her ability and should only serve to bolster the opinion of My Miss Mo, who tired late in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), but was the only filly within earshot of her at the wire. My Miss Mo is making her third start back in 2026 and should be rounding into top form for Joseph Jr. While it is fair to question her stamina, she should sit a perfect trip, tracking the early speed or taking the initiative on what can sometimes become a speed-favoring track. Add to that her last two BSFs stand out compared to the rest of the field, and she is a legitimate win threat.

The one longshot I love in the field is #2 Ivy Girl (15-1) for trainer Amelia Green, who has gotten off to a strong start in 2026, winning 25% of her entries. As for Ivy Girl, she is another daughter of Maxfield, with a productive female family: her dam, Critikal Reason, has foaled nine winners, and her offspring have a career record of 15 wins in 57 starts in dirt route races (26%). While very few of her offspring have run against stakes competition, they have been productive and have enjoyed winning at whatever level they have run. What I like about Ivy Girl is that she has been a slow burn and gradually built up to this level, having broken her maiden in her second start against maiden claiming $40,000 competition at Aqueduct. Green stepped her up in the Demoiselle (G2) after that victory, where she was thoroughly outclassed, but went to the bench for a few months and appears to have come back improved. After finishing second at Laurel Park in a high-level optional claimer, she won the Main Line Stakes at Parx over a wet track going two turns before coming from the clouds to win the Weber City Miss Stakes to qualify for the Black-Eyed Susan. Her success going 1 1/16 miles at Laurel Park is a bonus, and while she closed from the back of the field in her last effort, traditionally, she is more of a tracking runner who prefers to sit a few lengths off the pace. She will need to move forward in her BSF, but she has gotten faster in each start of 2026, and another step up will put her in contention for a minor award. At a big price, you could do worse than including an improving horse with local success to round out your deeper vertical exotics.

Most of the time, when I bring up pedigree, it is to show what a horse could do over a new distance or on a new surface. In the case of #5 Braken Pappa (7-2), it is hard to fully comprehend the unusual dynamics in her pedigree. The Louisiana-bred is sired by Aurelius Maximus, who is a productive sire in the Bayou, but who typically produces sprinters as his progeny. Average Winning Distance is 6.1 furlongs, and they have run six times as many dirt sprints as they have dirt routes. However, what stands out about Braken Pappa is her female family, as she is out of a Yes It’s True mare (Fab Fox), who was a hard-knocking type finishing in the money in 13 of 21 career starts. She has foaled two other runners, and the longest distance they have run is 400 yards…I repeat, 400 yards. Yes, Braken Pappa’s two half-siblings have only competed in Quarter Horse sprints at Delta Downs, Evangeline Downs, and Louisiana Downs. Setting the potential pedigree shortcomings aside for a moment, Braken Pappa has absolutely earned her spot in this race, having cut through Louisiana-bred competition like a hot knife through butter. Her four career victories have come by a total of 19 ¾ lengths, with her two biggest margins of victories being her last two races against stakes competition. While she has passed the two-turn test at Fair Grounds, she is facing a different class of horses on Friday and will be challenged up front by My Miss Mo. There is also the little matter of switching off Lasix for the first time, which is no small issue for a horse that has only run with Lasix during her career in Louisiana. I will always root for horses like Braken Pappa because I love to see the smaller state-bred operations thrive, but she feels like a play against at a relatively short price.