Wood Memorial Picks

Pace: Expect a strong early pace in the 100th running of the Wood Memorial. No matter what the TimeForm pace projection says, I believe #1 Rodriguez (5/2) will send hard from the inside rail under jockey Mike Smith. The Bob Baffert trainee has been asked to rate off his more ballyhooed stablemates in recent starts sitting off the early speed of Citizen Bull and Barnes. However, his lone victory came in gate-to-wire fashion, so I imagine now that he is the lone Baffert, there will be no rating on Saturday. Obviously, #5 Sand Devil (8/1) will also be a major early pace presence as the New York-bred son of Violence stretches out for trainer Linda Rice. Additionally, horses like #2 Captain Cook (7/2), #7 Grande (5/1), and #9 Bear Claw Necklace (50/1) want to be forward, though not all need the lead. An X-factor on pace could be #4 My Mitole (20/1) who has tracked the pace in recent starts but is adding blinkers for the first time and could be pressing the early action as well. While we are likely to have a wet track on Saturday, which can sometimes hold up frontend speed, the combination and pace and distance could play into the hands of horses coming from off the pace.

#2 Captain Cook (7/2) – Last week I made the argument for Tappan Street in the Florida Derby (G1), in part, because it was an “all-or-nothing” race as Brad Cox’s runner only had 10 points at the time of the race toward the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby. Knowing the horse had to finish first or second to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby field is extra motivation and a handicapping tool that I find helpful. The same can be applied to trainer Rick Dutrow Jr.’s son of Practical Joke out of an Indian Charlie mare. The St. Elias horse bred by the legendary Mary Lou Whitney Stables looked dominant back in February when he rolled in the Withers Stakes after stalking the early pace and the putting away the field at the top of the stretch. We have not seen many horses run back from that race, so there is some question as to the caliber of the field, but it is promising that fifth-place finisher Uncle Jim came back to win next time out while third-place runner (and fellow Wood entrant) Omaha Omaha came back to finish a rallying third in his next start in the Virginia Derby. The fact Dutrow Jr. has purposefully held this horse out of races until the final round of 100-point preps speaks to his confidence for the horse to run a big race as the horse will fail to make the Kentucky Derby unless he wins or finishes second. The horse has been training beautifully leading up to the race and backers should feel even more confident when looking at the weather forecast as Captain Cook owns a dominant 9+ length victory over a wet track to break his maiden, so you know he can handle the slop should conditions dictate. Finally, his 94 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) is the second highest in the field and he has steadily improved in each start, so it seems fair to project another step forward coming off a brief layoff, which would put him near the top of the three-year-old class.

*Scratched

#6 Hill Road (9/2) – Due to the pace scenario outlined above, this late-running Chad Brown’s entry who is coming off a third-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) is a very appealing play. While I do like a longshot like Omaha Omaha further underneath, there is no doubt that Hill Road has a higher talent upside as the late-running horse showed when he ran third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) back in November at Del Mar. It was his first attempt on dirt after starting his career in Europe running on the turf. However, after the promising effort at Del Mark in which he was the only horse who made up ground on the frontrunning duo of Citizen Bull and Gaming, he was transferred to Chad Brown’s barn where he went to training in South Florida. He made his 2025 debut in the Tampa Bay Derby where he finished third to Chancer McPatrick and Owen Almighty, who will be two of the top choices in Saturday’s Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland. On Saturday he will need a pace setup, but he should have more favorable conditions than he did down in Florida where he was running behind a paceless race on a speed-favoring track. He should get sufficient pace and while there has been a general belief that a wet track plays well to early speed, that is not always the case at Aqueduct as we have seen horses coming from off the pace when going two turns over a sealed surface. Additionally, due to an ankle injury he sustained last week, regular jockey Tyler Gaffalione will be replaced by Joel Rosario. While Gaffalione is more than sufficient, there are fewer riders better than Rosario at getting a horse to close from off the pace, whether that be on dirt or turf. I do not love his morning line price of 9/2, but should you see his odds float up to 6/1 then he becomes a more appealing bet.

#1 Rodriguez (5/2) – Trainer Bob Baffert is making the rare move to send one of his California-based horses to New York for a Kentucky Derby prep. I believe this son of Authentic has drawn the short end of the stick in recent starts as it seems obvious that he has been intentionally rated to ensure his more highly regarded stablemates such as Barnes and Citizen Bulls get their preferred trip up front. As a result, Rodriguez has not been given the opportunity to show the best version of himself, which happens when he is put on the lead, as he was in his maiden-breaking score where he earned a field-best 100 BSF. With jockey Mike Smith coming to town on Saturday in combination with the inside post position draw, you can expect Rodriguez to be sent to the front and it is distinctly possible that he takes them all the way around. The biggest impediment to that will be the fact there is a significant amount of other speed signed on in the race, particularly #5 Sand Devil. We saw last Saturday in the Arkansas Derby (G1) what happened when a Baffert runner cannot get clear of his main pace rivals as Cornucopian was softened up by Speed King while running unsustainable early fractions. Now, one important note is that projecting pace in New York is nearly impossible as there are few jockey colonies that seem more intent in letting someone else take the lead than here. I have seen far too many races with a projected fast pace and suddenly look up to see a lone horse on the lead setting reasonable fractions. If the other jockeys let Mike Smith get away with that up front, it is game over for the rest of the field. However, my belief is that at least one other horse will press Rodriguez early, which should set up for a horse like Captain Cook to come from a tracking/stalking position. That said, I like the blinkers off move for Baffert in this spot as the horse should get more relaxed and he has been outworking stablemate Barnes leading up to his big showcase race. Out of all anticipated Baffert runners, it would be a bit of an underdog story for Rodriguez to be one of the Derby entrants in Baffert’s first year back at the Kentucky Derby from his 3+ year suspension following the positive test, and subsequent disqualification, of Medina Spirit. I find myself rooting for Rodriguez as he has not been given a chance to show what we can do at his best, but he might just have that chance on Saturday.

#12 Omaha Omaha (30/1) – Another son of Audible is a huge price on the morning line, but I think there is reason to believe he is capable to outrunning his odds to hit the board in the trifecta or superfecta. The Michael Gorham trainee has been the model of consistency during his racing career having finished in the top three in every race since his debut including the last three times out win the Jerome Stakes, Withers Stakes, and Virginia Derby. He is a late-running type who is unlikely to be bothered by the outside post position since he will make a left turn out of the starting gate and save ground from the back of the field. The strong projected pace and added distance should be to his benefit on Saturday as he will start picking horses off around the turn and in the stretch while getting extra ground. While he has never run elite BSF, he has moved forward in every start since breaking his maiden with 62, which improved to 75, then 78, then 80, and last time out getting 82 while running against the bias on a speed-favoring track. While he only has two victories, it is noteworthy that one of them was over a muddy sealed track, which is helpful given the forecast and likely wet track conditions for Saturday. He will need to get faster, but for a horse that has been reliably hitting the board in Kentucky Derby prep races, he presents outstanding value for a horse that has had success at the track, over the conditions likely for Saturday, and should benefit from the projected pace scenario.