Withers Stakes Picks

#5 Mo Quality (3/1) – The son of Mo Town’s runner-up effort in the Smarty Jones down at Oaklawn Park has come back to look even more impressive of the last couple of weeks. First, two runners for that race, Kale’s Angel and Hot Gunner, have both come back to win their next starts, which included a stakes win for Kale’s Angel. However, what really stands out is that the winner of the Smarty Jones, Coal Battle, defeated a horse, Speed King, in his previous start in the Springboard Mile. We just saw Speed King win the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park last weekend, which is an excellent sign for Mo Quality regarding the quality of competition he has faced. It is notable that trainer Christopher David is bringing the horse up to New York for a prep race to avoid some of the deeper and more talented fields that might run at Oaklawn Park or Fair Grounds. The horse has never been out of the exacta in his career and did not switch leads until late in the stretch during his effort in the Smarty Jones. Look for jockey Kendrick Carmouche to get him to sit a forward trip, but he does not need to get to the lead as the horse has shown the ability to rate. The horse might not have a Triple Crown pedigree or a Triple Crown trainer, but he has talent and appears to have come out of the race in good order to ship up here and get some Kentucky Derby points.

#4 Uncle Jim (3/1) – Trainer Brad Cox has a deep group of runners in his barn for the Derby and Oaks trail. Uncle Jim’s first two career starts do not “wow” you from a speed figure standpoint, but he did win in debut going seven furlongs at Keeneland and then ran third in his last start against Cyclone State who came back to dominate the Jerome Stakes. Much like Mo Quality, it was nice to see Uncle Jim run well against good competition. He needs to move forward in terms of speed figures and picks up jockey Jose Lezcano, which does raise an eyebrow as Cox’s typical #1 jockey in New York, Manny Franco, chooses to stay aboard one of the other contenders in the race. Lezcano is an aggressive jockey, and the horse has good early speed, so expect him to secure no worse than a pocket trip on the inside rail. From a pedigree standpoint, you might expect this horse to get better as he gets more experience as City of Light horses, which they can by precocious, sometimes take time to develop as you can look at Travers (G1) winner Fierceness’s development as a prime example. The dam has not produced much, but did foal Murray who once upon a time was a promising debut winner for trainer Bob Baffert but ended up being an allowance-level runner. You’re betting on the upside with Uncle Jim, but you might get a fair price in a relatively short field.

#7 Omaha Omaha (4/1) – The Virgina-bred son of Audible is coming into the race after a runner-up finish to Cyclone State in the Jerome Stakes. He has shown good progression in each start since switching to the dirt and showed he belonged in the New York Kentucky Derby Prep circuit last time out despite starting his career at Delaware Park and Laurel Park. He is a closer and there is not much speed in this race, which might be an issue, but I believe his effort in the Jerome should quell those fears. In the Jerome, Cyclone State was able to get an uncontested lead while carving out his own fractions. They went 1:13.1 to the six-furlong mark, which for a one-turn mile at Aqueduct is slow. Despite the pace, Omaha Omaha was the only horse to make up ground and came flying late to close several lengths on Cyclone State in the stretch. He will need to save some ground at the start but is likely to let the horses to his inside run off and then quickly make his way over to the rail before entering the first turn. Distance does not appear to be an issue, and he should make a late run no matter the conditions.

#6 Captain Cook (5/2) – I will play against the morning line favorite who is coming off a maiden victory last time out sprinting over a wet track. The $410,000 son of Practical Joke started out his career in Kentucky trained by Norm Casse but switched to the Rick Dutrow Jr. barn after his debut. In his second start, he trounced a maiden field at Aqueduct while earning an 83 Beyer Speed Figure, which is tied for the top mark in the field on Saturday. NYRA Senior Analyst Andy Serling rated the track as playing fair on the day Captain Cook broke his maiden, despite the wet track conditions. However, I think it is fair to ask whether all the horses in the debut race liked running over a wet track and I typically prefer playing against horses coming out of an easy maiden win over an off track when stepping up to face stakes-caliber runners in their next start. The horse can rate, but expect jockey Manny Franco to be aggressive and put this horse on the lead.