With Anticipation Stakes Picks

Analysis: The With Anticipation (G3) is one of the fun races of the Saratoga meet as we get to see the top juvenile turf horses square off for the first time. Interestingly, #5 Dr. Agne (7/2) did not run on the turf in debut as the race got rained off the grass, but the horse is bred for the surface as he is the first North American runner from five-time Grade 1 turf route winner Lady Eli. Trainer Cherie DeVaux, who closely managed Lady Eli while she was an assistant for trainer Chad Brown, felt strongly enough about the horse to keep him entered in debut despite the surface switch and it paid off. The horse looked lost early on the dirt but made a big closing kick to win by a length. While the Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) came back slow, I believe that had more to do with the surface and pace dynamics than the relative talent of the field. Every runner who has come back to run has improved their BSF despite none of them winning. Dr. Agne has been working out great in the mornings and should be ready to go. However, it is far from a lock as there are a slew of other strong win contenders. Trainer Eoin Harty’s runner, #7 Gloves Off (6/1) is coming up from Ellis Park for Godolphin and I love the pedigree on this one sired by Nyquist out of a Bernardini mare. The horse made a strong move in debut at Ellis Park rallying from the back of the pack to get the win in a race that has already produced three next-out winners. Harty and Godolphin turn to jockey Junior Alvarado for the ride, and the horse should be able to sit a good trip behind an honest pace and is dangerous at a price. Meanwhile, trainer Chad Brown has a very nice entry in the form of #3 Capital Partner (5/2) who is your morning line favorite. The horse was a mess early in the race during his debut effort, but once jockey Flavien Prat got him settled, he showed immense talent coming for home. If he can show that some of the issues at the start were simply first-out jitters, then you should expect an even more complete effort this time out and he is a horse that is hard to omit from your wagers. Another serious contender is #4 Caroline St. Beat (9/2) who is a New York-bred for trainer Miguel Clement who has won 24% of his entries during the Saratoga meet. The daughter of Tiz the Law showed solid early speed to closely track the pace before striking to the front and easily winning in debut. He will be facing open company for the first time, but in juvenile races the gap between New York-breds and open company is not always that significant. The horse has not worked since that debut, but the quick turnaround of two weeks shows confidence from the connections. Finally, #1 Test Score (8/1) is coming off a gate-to-wire victory in his first start on the grass for jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. However, Ortiz Jr. is up on Dr. Agne for Thursday and Test Score gets jockey Kendrick Carmouche who has had a very respectable Saratoga meet winning 16% of his mounts and scoring a Grade 1 win on the turf with Deterministic. The horse was able to walk the dog up front in his lone turf effort and will likely try to do that again from the rail, but it could prove to be a challenge as there is some other speed in the group. He did show the ability to pass horses in debut, so Carmouche could have some options depending on how things go at the break.