Winning Colors Stakes Picks

#7 Hope Road (7/5) – The daughter of Quality Road stands out when looking at her last two performances, which have both been runner-up finishes to the freakishly talented Kopion. However, even in defeat, this Bob Baffert trainee has asserted herself as one of the top runners in the filly and mare sprint division. No other horse in the field has run within four Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) points of her as she has earned consecutive triple-digit efforts with a 102 BSF in the Santa Monica (G2) back in February and most recently a 104 BSF in the Derby City Distaff (G1) where she bested horses like Ways and Means, Vahva, Scylla, Positano Sunset, and Emery, all of whom would likely be favorites if entered in this race if she were not running. She has outstanding speed but can pass horses as she stalked the pace last time out and briefly took the lead at the top of the stretch before her West Coast nemesis tracked her down over a sloppy track on Kentucky Derby Day. What made that effort so impressive was that Mystik Lake, who was setting the pace, faded all the way back to ninth while Vahva, who was sitting just behind Hope Road faded back to eighth. She was the only horse from the pace that stayed around at the end. This is an easier group with her two biggest threats both coming off the bench following long layoffs, while she is in top form. She feels like an easy single in this race and if she runs back within 10 points of her previous effort, she should get the win.

#1 Brightwork (8/1) – A filly whom I have always held in high regard is Brightwork who I made money on in the Adirondak (G3) and Spinaway (G1) when she was a two-year-old beating horses like Ways and Means. Unfortunately, she has not had the career I had hoped following that big Grade 1 victory in 2023. Trainer John Ortiz stretched her out in the Alcibiades (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), but going two turns was just not in the card. He sent her to the bench for quite awhile and was planning to return in the Test (G1), but she reared up in the paddock and she briefly went down, which forced an automatic scratch. Ortiz was devastated, but undeterred as he brought her back a few weeks later in the Prioress (G3) where she bested fellow Winning Colors (G3) contender Two Sharp. It was particularly impressive given the nearly ten-month layoff and the setback just a few weeks earlier. She ran against older company in her next start in the TCA (G2) but only managed a third-place finish despite going off as the 9/5 favorite. That was back in October 2024. Ortiz has taken his time bringing her back to the track for her four-year-old campaign and I had the opportunity to see her about a month ago when I was at Keeneland ahead of the Kentucky Derby (G1) and she looks phenomenal. Ortiz is very high on her and she has already proven to be an effective running off a long layoff and has bested Two Sharp, so the 8/1 morning line feels like a pipedream relative to Two Sharp’s 8/5 price. That said, I think we see the best version of Brightwork on Monday, but I do not know if she can fire off a high-90s BSF performance off the bench, so I see her as more of an underneath play or straight exacta with Hope Road. I will be rooting for her though and believe she is another major player in this division moving forward.

#9 Two Sharp (8/5) – Trainer Phil Bauer is bringing this daughter of Twirling Candy off the bench having last won the Chilukki (G3) at Churchill Downs back in November. She is an incredibly talented, and fast, filly who does her best work up front, but can briefly rate, if necessary. She draws well to the outside as jockey Junior Alvarado should be able to play the break and have a clean path to the front of the field down the backstretch. The issue I have with her is her career-best figure of a 98 BSF came in a maiden breaking effort with Lasix, and she has not run faster than a 94 since. While she won going a mile, she also got the easiest of easy leads in that Chilukki (G3) as she was four lengths clear of the competition down the backstretch, which will not be the case on Monday as Hope Road and Brightwork will make sure she feels their presence. Bauer, who is an exceptional trainer, is not great bringing horses back from long layoffs. Over the last five years he has been only 2-22 (9%) bringing horses back from 180-240-day layoffs, which is quite a bit different from his overall 18%-win rate overall during that same period. Two Sharp certainly looked sharp on the training track with a 46 second four-furlong bullet work back on April 27, but then she skipped two weeks before putting in a slower six-furlong work and a maintenance four-furlong work leading up to this race. I am not completely confident she will fire off the bench as she lost in debut, which is the only other datapoint we have that could provide us with insight. She was nearly a $1 million purchase, so there are plenty of expectations and I think, like Brightwork, she is going to be a major player in this division, but at her 8/5 morning line price, I do not want to use her relative to what I believe her odds are to win this race.

#8 Mink’s Palace (8/1) – Trainer Eddie Kenneally is winning at a 33% clip at Churchill Downs during this spring meet and jockey Jose Ortiz has won 25% of his mounts to this point, so betting against the connections of Mink’s Palace might be a bit foolish. On the figures, she is a cut below the top three contenders as her career-best BSF is 90, which came against optional claiming company with Lasix. She has come back as a four-year-old and gotten a win off the bench in the Roxelana Overnight where she stalked the early pace and held off a late-running Tripolina. While it was great to see this daughter of Palace Malice get her first stakes victory, she only earned an 85 BSF and will need to move forward if she wants any chance to contend for win honors. She does have an effective off-the-pace running style that should allow her to let the speed go out up front while she sits behind and waits to make her move. I am not sure this group will come back to her at six furlongs, which is why I do not think she can reel them all in at this distance, but with Brightwork and Two Sharp coming off the bench, it might be possible that one (or both) of them tire and she can move up late for a piece of some of the vertical exotics.