Whitney Stakes Picks

Overview: One of the classic showdowns of the year will take place on Saturday at Saratoga as the winners of the last two Breeders’ Cup Classics (G1), Sierra Leone and White Abarrio, face off against last year’s Travers (G1) winner, Fierceness, and headline a star-studded field. Altogether, the drawn field of 10 has won a total of $28 million in career earnings and includes five Grade 1 winners. One of the biggest unknowns is the status of Mindframe, a two-time Grade 1 winner, who drew the inside rail for trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole. That duo also has Fierceness entered and those two horses have never run against each other and from an ownership perspective, it makes little sense to do so as their value as stallions will be diminished by defeating each other rather than racking up wins without damaging the record of the other. Regardless if Mindframe runs, there should be ample pace as horses like Skippylongstocking, Highland Falls, Mama’s Gold, Contrary Thinking, and Fierceness all have good early speed, but a few of those have shown the ability to rate, which leads to a slightly more murky pace scenario, though there is little doubt Sierra Leone will get an honest enough pace to run into on Saturday while trying to get his first career win at Saratoga.

#9 Fierceness (9/5) – The four-year-old son of City of Light has been in our lives for two years since dazzling in debut as a juvenile at Saratoga in 2023. While he was always capable of tremendous highs like his victory in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), the 2024 Florida Derby (G1), and the 2024 Travers (G1), he would occasionally throw in a clunker like the 2023 Champagne (G1), the 2024 Holy Bull (G3), and the 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1). However, last summer trainer Todd Pletcher seems to have figured things out with Fierceness as he had a remarkably consistent summer and fall by winning the Jim Dandy (G2), Travers (G1), and finishing second, while running the best race, in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). The key with those victories has been jockey John Velazquez’s ability to keep Fierceness in the clear and outside of horses. He does not need to be on the lead, but his positioning on the track relative to the rest of the field is still critical. Velazquez has continually shown that he is willing to give up ground around both turns if the horse is getting the most comfortable trip. He started his 2025 season by setting the track record at Churchill Downs going 1 1/16 miles in the Alysheba (G2) but then finished second in the Met Mile (G1) last time out, which is understandable given everything I just mentioned. Aside from perhaps not liking the Wilson Chute, he also drew the inside rail with speed to his outside and did not get as comfortable as he normally does over a wet track. On Saturday, he drew a perfect spot to the outside of all the other speed, which will allow Velazquez to play the break and slowly work the horse over while staying in the clear. While there is sufficient speed signed on, he can easily sit third or fourth going into the first turn and let longshots like Mama’s Gold and Contrary Thinking go out up front to set the fractions. Somehow this mercurial horse has turned into one of the most consistent in his generation and for that, much credit must be given to Pletcher and his team. The horse is 3-4 winning at Saratoga, which stands in stark contrast to his main rival who has yet to win at The Spa. At nine furlongs, Fierceness can stay near a fast pace and not fade, which makes closing on him that much more challenging.

#3 Highland Falls (8/1) – This is an example of where I will get creative in verticals, but not horizontals. I see this as a three-horse race between the three favorites, but there is limited value in betting exacta combinations between Fierceness, White Abarrio, and/or Sierra Leone. Therefore, a horse like Highland Falls is one that could present value underneath as the Brad Cox trainee is a Grade 1 winner last year at Saratoga in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). The son of Curlin out of Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) winner Round Pond had a late start to his career debuting in August of his three-year-old season but quickly found himself entered in Santa Anita Handicap (G1) and eventually won the Blame (G3) later that season before his success at The Spa. He finished ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) in November and did not return until June during the Belmont at Aqueduct meet when he cruised to a victory against $100K allowance competition going a mile. He is a horse that would seem to do his best going longer, but it is aggressive to see the ownership group Godolphin and trainer Brad Cox to spot him in this field in only his second start of the year. That aggressive placement could speak to their confidence in the horse. He has shown the ability to track off the pace and should sit a good trip tracking or sitting mid-pack behind a decent pace up front. Jockey Luis Seaz is back up on the mount after Flavien Prat rode him last time out, but will choose to ride Sierra Leone on Saturday, which is understandable. Highland Falls’ top effort is good enough to hit the board and crash the chalk party. The question is whether he has moved forward as a five-year-old and it’s possible he is still reaching his full potential. The combination of Godolphin, Cox, and Saez at 8/1 morning line odds is not something you see often, so using a horse like this in different vertical wagers is a way to get some value in your exactas and trifectas.

#5 Sierra Leone (2/1) – The $2.3 million son of Gun Runner is one of the most physically impressive horses you will see in person and has never missed the board in his career while winning the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). However, and it’s a big “however”, is that he has never won at Saratoga and he is still pace dependent. He has been the post time favorite all three times he has raced at The Spa and fell to horses like Dornoch, Mindframe, Fierceness, and Thorpedo Anna. There had been talk last year that he did not like the surface at Saratoga, which could be possible due to his late-running style where he is taking kickback the whole way around. He also is not the most agile horse and typically has to go wide when making his move, which only reduces his margin of error as most of his competitors are travelling less ground by comparison. The good news is that he always runs his race and never turns in a bad effort. Additionally, trainer Chad Brown seems to have correct his issues lugging in down the stretch and has finally entered a rabbit to ensure a strong pace up front. Stablemate Contrary Thinking has one job, which is to press the pace and make sure to wear out the horses running up front. The reality is that Sierra Leone needs horses to come back to him a bit as much as he makes up ground on the rest of the field. With a likely field of nine, he is probably sitting last or eighth in a strung-out field, so the calculus for jockey Flavien Prat needs to make is how many lengths do you spot horses like Fierceness or White Abarrio down the backstretch and the far turn. Typically, I would tell you that if they run the first six furlongs faster than 1:11, then the horse should be able to close. If they run 1:11 or slower, then he is going to have a hard time tracking down more forward horses like Fierceness or White Abarrio. However, the horse has never missed the board, and it is hard to imagine he is going to start doing it now. He is remarkably consistent and should make his run, but I need to see him win at Saratoga before betting him to win at a short price.

#7 White Abarrio (4/1) – The 2023 Whitney winner can occasionally get overlooked as the hype around Sierra Leone and Fierceness, not to mention the current three-year-old crop, gets all the publicity, but trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.’s horse is a four-time Grade 1 winner with over $7,000,000 in career earnings. Not bad for a $40,000 purchase sired by Race Day. He is a horse that traditionally tracks the pace and can sit mid-pack when the situation dictates and has the best jockey in North America currently, Irad Ortiz Jr., in the irons. He has won three of eight career starts at the nine-furlong distance including this year’s Pegasus World Cup (G1) in which he earned a 109 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF), which puts him on par with the Fierceness and Sierra Leone. Immediately after his disappointing fourth-place finish in the Met Mile (G1), connections told me the horse never took to the wet track, but they would be back for the Whitney and confidence as he has turned in a series of impressive workouts over the main track. Considering the weather on Saturday looks to be ideal, White Abarrio is a dangerous alternative and could float up come post time with all the public support that typically flows to the top two choices on the morning line. From a trip standpoint, he could sit a Goldie Locks trip. Not too close to the pace like Fierceness and not too far back like Sierra Leone. By sitting more mid-pack, he can let the rabbits burn up the frontrunners but will get first crack on the beleaguered group while getting the jump on a deep closer like Sierra Leone. There is no jockey in the world I would rather have riding my horse right now than Irad Ortiz Jr. and in a big race with evenly matched horses, having the best jockey can make all the difference.