Wayward Lass Stakes Picks

The Wayward Lass Stakes draws a compelling field of horses with a heavy favorite in the form of Drexel Hill, who is 4/5 on the morning line. However, her running style, particularly at Tampa Bay Downs, makes me cautious to back her. Tampa Bay Downs is renowned for having a heavy speed favoring track on big days and Drexel Hill is a deep closer. She’s got talent, but I thought it was an opportunity to play against her in this spot.

As a result, I landed on a horse who should have an easy lead up front as #5 Andrea (6/1) represents good value and a horse that could have the ideal pace scenario. The daughter of Thousand Words has largely sprinted during her career, but she does possess a stakes victory going a mile, albeit a one-turn mile, at Gulfstream Park in her second career start. Her only other attempt at a mile was in last year’s Cash Run Stakes where she faded badly, but I’m willing to draw a line through that as she went to the bench for four months after that effort. While Thousand Words is more of a sprint influence, his offspring are winning dirt routes at a 16% clip. Her dam side pedigree is open to interpretation as she is out of an unraced Tiznow mare. Obviously, Tiznow is a great distant influence and her second dam, Film Idol, broke her maiden going two turns and is sired by Bernardini. All of that suggests she should be able to get 8.5 furlongs under the right conditions. Additionally, jockey Edgar Zayas is making the trip up to Tampa Bay Downs from Gulfstream Park to ride for Joseph Jr. and it’s encouraging to see that he wants to ride this horse rather than the one with the bigger profile, who I will get to in a moment. Tampa’s track can carry home front end speed, and I have a feeling that will be the case here as the only other horse who has any chance of staying close to Andrea is her stablemate #1 Ultimate Authority (5/1) and it seems unlikely those two will link up in a speed duel.

The heavy favorite, #6 Drexel Hill (4/5) certainly has an advantage in class having been the runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Trainer Whit Beckman sent her to the bench for six months after that effort and she came back with another second-place finish in the Mother Goose (G2) where she lost to Fully Subscribed, who came back to romp in the Comely (G3) in her next start. She hasn’t run in two months but has been working regularly in the mornings. If she can move forward from her Mother Goose (G2) effort then she certainly has every chance to win, but her late-running style and a lack of pace makes me concerned that she will simply have too much to do at the top of the stretch. Additionally, if you remove her 88 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) from the Kentucky Oaks (G1), the rest of her figures do not stand out that much compared to her top competition. Jockey Ben Curtis hops back aboard, which is encouraging, but I’m willing to try to beat a horse at a short price who tends to finish second.

One of Saffie Joseph Jr.’s other horses, #2 Early On (6/1) ran in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) as well but failed to make an impression as she finished a distant eighth. Prior to that she ran second in the Gazelle (G3) and the Virginia Oaks to earn her spot in the starting gate. She is an intriguing horse because she has shown the ability to sit close to the pace when going two turns but also had some from further off the pace at times. It is telling that Edgar Zayas, who rode her in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), opts to ride Andrea instead. Still, the daughter of Union Rags will love every inch of ground and having been around her leading up to the Kentucky Oaks, she is a physically impressive horse who likely benefited from extended time away from the track as she continued to mature. Tampa journeyman Daniel Centeno takes over the ride and due to the lack of pace, he might just be able to put Early On in a good pocket spot on the rail and see if she had something at the top of the stretch. Her speed figures need to improve, but at 6/1 she is an interesting horse to consider using underneath.

Finally, #4 Runway Diva (7/2) is another horse coming off a little break having last run second in the Delaware Handicap (G3) where she was easily bested by Regaled who came back to run third in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). However, outside of Regaled, the field lacked much punch, and I am not confident she beat anyone of great consequence. She does not possess outstanding early speed and lacks the close kick of a horse like Drexel Hill, so it puts her in a tough spot as she will be coming from off the pace and likely fighting against the track and pace scenario while lacking the superior late closing speed necessary to overcome those disadvantages. The daughter of Runhappy has a similar pedigree profile to Andrea in terms of having significant sprint influence and while she does have consecutive stakes runner-up finishes her last two races, she also lost those by a combined 11 lengths. I think this race could produce a bit of a price as the winner and I want to get around the second choice on the morning line in my Late P5 ticket.