Waya Stakes (G3) Picks

Assuming the jockey colony does not fall asleep at the wheel like they did during the Flower Bowl (G2), then #7 McKulick (9/5) appears to be a difficult favorite to beat. She has been an incredibly consistent performer over her career (15-19 in the money) and is the defending champion of this race which she won over stablemate and fellow runner Idea Generation. There should be more of a pace on Friday than she got in the Flower Bowl (G2) and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. should be able to get her into a comfortable tracking position from the outside post to avoid getting caught too wide around all three turns. She can handle any type of ground and while her Beyer Speed Figures hardly tower over the field, her class and consistency does give you confidence she will fire her best. If you’re looking for a little bit of a price, I do think #5 Beautiful Love (8/1) is interesting for European trainer Charlie Appleby with jockey Joel Rosario on the mount. There was a great deal of confidence within the Godolphin camp for this horse when she made her North American debut in August coming back from a six-month layoff, but she didn’t fire her best in the Lake Placid (G2). The brought her back last month at Belmont at the Big A and she won the Jockey Club Oaks Invitational (G3) in relatively easy fashion after getting a great pace setup. While she is unlikely to get nearly as strong of fractions on Friday and she is facing older company for the first time, she has a great turn of foot, and this will be her third start in the form cycle for a barn that hits at an incredibly high rate in North America. Rosario picking up the mount is interesting as few are better on deep closers on the turf than Joel and he is coming off a winning ride of Far Bridge in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1). #1 Surprisingly (7/2) is an honest horse who has won over $544,000 in her career, but simply does not win. Her last victory came in February 2023, and she has been 0-11 since that effort. She runs well as she has hit the board in six graded stakes races since then, but it is hard to trust a horse at a relatively short price who consistently shows pattern of coming up short. She will be saving all the ground from the inside rail for Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez who hops aboard for the first time. She has good early speed compared to the rest of the field is I must imagine Velazquez will put her out up front considering the post position and likely pace dynamics. Last time out #6 Idea Generation (5/1) stole it up front in one of the more baffling races you will see as she and then jockey Florent Geroux managed to set the pace going 1:18.1 to the six-furlong mark while being clear multiple lengths from anyone else. She was able to walk the dog up front and then got the jump on the field to win the Flower Bowl (G2). However, I think Surprisingly is going to make her work harder up front and she is going from Florent Geroux to Eric Cancel. Perhaps she was always a great horse, but simply had double staying on the track as this will be the first time in her career, she has made three straight starts without a layoff. That said, I do not see her getting the same trip as last time and I am willing to let her beat me as I would rather take my chances with a few others.